黑龙江省森林资源动态变化与发展趋势预测

以黑龙江省2004年统计年鉴的统计数据为依据,分析了全省森林资源现状的特点,并以近50多年来森林资源清查数据为基础,对森林资源主要项目的动态变化进行了客观的分析,力求寻找变化的原因.通过建立灰色预测GM(1.1)模型,预测未来时期森林资源发展趋势,提出了相应对策,以期实现科学经营森林以及森林资源的可持续发展.     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

NUTRIENT LOADING ASSESSMENT IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER USING A SYNTHETIC APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A synthetic relationship is developed between nutrient concentrations and discharge rates at two river gauging sites in the Illinois River Basin. Analysis is performed on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on nutrients in 1990 through 1997 and 1999 and on discharge rates in 1988 through 1997 and 1999. The Illinois River Basin is in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma and is designated as an Oklahoma Scenic River. Consistently high nutrient concentrations in the river and receiving water bodies conflict with recreational water use, leading to intense stakeholder debate on how best to manage water quality. Results show that the majority of annual phosphorus (P) loading is transported by direct runoff, with high concentrations transported by high discharge rates and low concentrations by low discharge rates. A synthetic relationship is derived and used to generate daily phosphorus concentrations, laying the foundation for analysis of annual loading and evaluation of alternative management practices. Total nitrogen (N) concentration does not have as clear a relationship with discharge. Using a simple regression relationship, annual P loadings are estimated as having a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 39.8 t/yr and 31.9 t/yr and mean absolute percentage errors of 19 percent and 28 percent at Watts and Tahlequah, respectively. P is the limiting nutrient over the full range of discharges. Given that the majority of P is derived from Arkansas, management practices that control P would have the most benefit if applied on the Arkansas side of the border.     

国有林场安全生产依法管理措施探讨

本文从林场安全生产管理实际出发，论述了国有林场如何贯彻实施(安全生产法)，提高林场安全生产依法管理水平的内容与措施。     

使用清洁能源,改善煤烟型污染城市大气质量--可再生能源水源热泵技术的应用

本文从热泵工作原理入手，阐述了可再生能源水源热泵技术替代解决燃煤城市冬季采暖的能源问题，进而为改善大气环境质量，推广应用清洁能源做一有益的尝试。同时也为治理乌鲁木齐市的大气污染及调整能源结构提出了一条新思路。     

灾害旅游资源探讨

灾害经济学中的害利互变原理表明，灾害也有“利”的一面。它在给人类造成巨大损失的同时，也塑造了奇异独特的灾害旅游资源，其开发利用效用是其他旅游资源无法代替的。本文系统阐述了灾害旅游资源的基本属性、特性、类型及可持续开发利用的设想，以便使灾害旅游资源可以发挥更大的社会和经济效益。     

长江上游森林植被变化对削洪减灾功能的影响

长江上游具有形成暴雨洪水的地形与气候条件，森林植被削洪减灾功能的提高必须着眼于森林植被—土壤生态系统结构的改善，削洪减灾功能的提高是通过林冠层、枯枝落叶层和土壤层对雨水的截留拦蓄作用实现的。研究区森林植被—土壤生态系统区域差异明显，不同地区该系统林冠层、枯枝落叶层和土壤层的最大截持水量不同，该系统削洪减灾功能的大小不仅与降雨特点有关，而且与系统各水文层前期持水量有关。在连续长时间暴雨情况下，森林植被—土壤生态系统除对第一次洪峰有削减作用外，对后续暴雨洪水的削减作用不明显，甚至会使洪峰增高。根据宜昌站30d洪水量的地区组成和森林植被—土壤生态系统截留持水功能的特点，提出了长江上游森林植被恢复、重建与保护的宏观调控对策。     

黄冈市矿业经济布局研究

文章针对黄冈市矿业经济发展的需要，在充分考虑黄冈市地区经济发展，矿产资源分布，矿业经济合理布局的必要性的基础上，对黄冈市矿业经济布局作了详细深入研究，提出了“一个中心，四个矿业规划区，五类开发矿种，十个矿业基地”的布局构架，为该市矿业经济发展提供了明确的发展思路，并指出了发展重点，也为政府宏观调控和矿政管理提供了依据。     

徐州市历史文化资源的开发与利用

徐州市具有特色鲜明的历史文化资源和极其优越的开发条件。作者根据旅游资源可持续发展的相关原则，分析了徐州市在历史文化资源开发中存在的问题，提出了充分，合理开发利用当地历史文化资源的主要对策。     

我国硒资源产业现状及创建产业发展基金构想

文章总结了国内外硒资源开发现状，分析了硒资源的发展趋势，提出了我国硒资源产业存在的问题：产品趋同、技术创新不足、缺乏规划、政策引导不力、全民硒意识薄弱及资金匮乏。针对资金瓶颈问题提出创建我国硒资源产业发展基金的构想，探讨了发展基金的运作战略、经营思路及发展步骤。