Detection and delineation of critical areas using echelons and spatial scan statistics with synoptic cellular data

Geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation has become an important area of investigation both in geospatial ecosystem health and in geospatial public health. In order to find critical areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial ecosystem health investigations apply recently discovered echelon tools. In order to find elevated rate areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial public health investigations apply recently discovered spatial scan statistic tools. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize a joint role for these together in the spirit of a cross-disciplinary cross-fertilization to accomplish more effective and efficient geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation, and early warning system.     

Development of an Earthen Dam Break Database

Earthen embankment dams comprise 85% of all major operational dams in the United States. Assessment of peak flow rates for these earthen dams and the impacts on dam failure are of high interest to engineers and planners. Regression analysis is a frequently used risk assessment approach for earthen dams. In this paper, we present a decision support tool for assessing the applicability of nine regression equations commonly used by practitioners. Using data from 108 case studies, six parameters were observed to be significant factors predicting for peak flow as a metric for risk analysis. We present our work on an expanded earthen dam break database that relates the regression equations and underlying data. A web application, regression selection tool, is also presented to assess the appropriateness of a given model for a given test point. This graphical display allows users to visualize how their data point compares with the data used for the regression equation. These contributions improve estimates and better inform decision makers regarding operational and safety decisions.     

Representing the Connectivity of Upland Areas to Floodplains and Streams in SWAT+

In recent years, watershed modelers have put increasing emphasis on capturing the interaction of landscape hydrologic processes instead of focusing on streamflow at the watershed outlet alone. Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between landscape elements is important to explain the hydrologic response of a watershed to rainfall events. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) is a new version of SWAT with improved runoff routing capabilities. Subbasins may be divided into landscape units (LSUs), e.g., upland areas and floodplains, and flow can be routed between these LSUs. We ran three scenarios representing different extents of connectivity between uplands, floodplains, and streams. In the first and second scenarios, the ratio of channelized flow from the upland to the stream and sheet flow from the upland to the floodplain was 70/30 and 30/70, respectively, for all upland/floodplain pairs. In the third scenario, the ratio was calculated for each upland/floodplain pair based on the upland/floodplain area ratio. Results indicate differences in streamflow were small, but the relative importance of flow components and upland areas and floodplains as sources of surface runoff changed. Also, the soil moisture in the floodplains was impacted. The third scenario was found to provide more realistic results than the other two. A realistic representation of connectivity in watershed models has important implications for the identification of pollution sources and sinks.     

Variations in Newspaper Coverage on Water in the U.S. Intermountain West

Water is a salient issue in the Intermountain West of the United States (U.S.), with concerns ranging from water scarcity and drought to intermittent flooding and water quality risks. This paper investigates coverage of water issues across seven newspapers in the core of the U.S. Intermountain West region. Newspapers have the potential to set agendas and influence perceived salience of issues among consumers. The Intermountain West region shares common concerns about water supply and demand, climate change, and water quality. We investigate whether or not local daily newspaper coverage of water issues provides a more local or regional sensitivity. Findings from this exploratory study reveal differences in water coverage across local daily newspapers. The overall volume of water‐related articles differed across newspapers as did proportion of articles on specific water topics and connecting issues. Coverage of local issues was more dominant than might be expected given mass media trends, but water geography in articles extended across the U.S. and the world in every newspaper studied. Variations in newspaper coverage of water issues suggests more local nuance persists despite the experience of common water issues across the region.     

EFFECTS OF SIMULATED CLOUD SEEDING ON STREAMFLOW OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of five small watersheds in central Pennsylvania. Continuous hydrographs for the 6-month period, April to September 1964, were simulated. Synthesized rainfall cycles consisting of increasing rainfall by 10, 20, and 30 percent to simulate the effects of cloud seeding were processed through the watershed model to determine the effects on low flow augmentation. Other rainfall cycles used consisted of increasing every third storm by 30 percent and of developing a rainfall cycle by processing daily radiosonde data through a mathematical cumulus cloud model to obtain a prediction of rainfall following seeding. A comparison of actual and predicted hydrographs indicated that simulated cloud seeding resulted in significant monthly and seasonal water yields. In general, the results of the study appear to indicate that on a theoretical basis cloud seeding would be a feasible method of augmenting low stream-flow during the summer months on watersheds in the northern Appalachian region.     

ROLE OF CARBONATE ROCKS IN MODIFYING FLOOD FLOW BEHAVIOR1

ABSTRACT. The interrelationships between the runoff characteristics of watersheds (expressed as the mean annual flood), standard basin parameters (area, drainage properties, and relief), and the parameters which describe the solutional modification of the basins (carbonate rock fractions, sinkhole development, and measures of internal drainage) were used to group 62 carbonate watersheds. Simple binary correlations were obtained by direct plotting of the data. This was followed by multivariate analyses: factor and cluster analyses. Following the cluster analysis, which separated the basins into three groups, the variance within each group was examined again by binary correlations and by factor analysis. Prediction equations for those basins underlain by dolomite rock [QBAR = 12.4 TOT^1.01] and for those basins underlain by carbonate rock with very little surface expression [QBAR = 43.5 TOT^0.87] were proposed. Basins underlain by karstic limestone had a large amount of variance within the data set; therefore no prediction equation could be obtained. (QBAR = mean annual flood, cfs; TOT = total length of all blue lines shown on topographic maps, miles.)     

WATERSHEDS AS THE BASIC ECOSYSTEM: THIS CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK PROVIDES A BASIS FOR A NATURAL CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A scheme is outlined to classify watersheds as ecosystems, based on their natural attributes. Two physical factors of the environment, climate and geology, are selected as state factors. Climate is the master factor that supplies energy and water to all ecosystems; geologic structure supplies the materal from which the forces of climate carve landforms to establish ecosystems. At the next lower level, soil and vegetation interact in a succession of transactions to produce a mosaic of tesseras within each watershed. It is these interacting tesseras that moderate climate and store energy within the ecosystem that influences the embedded stream. At the bottom of the scale is the stream with its passive role and inability to interact with the higher factors of the ecosystem. Thus, we have a controlling force consisting of two elements (climate and geology), a reacting force (soil and vegetation) that responds by circular conditioning to controlling forces, and at the lowest level, the stream which responds to all factors of the living system within its watershed.     

Brushland fire-management policies: A cross-impact simulation of southern California

A cross-impact simulation computer language, UW-KSIM, is presented as a potentially useful technique for assessing the consequences of resource policies. Cross-impact simulation is used to estimate trends in a set of variables that result from interactions produced from hypothesized relationships among the members of the set. This technique is illustrated with an example that simulates the likely impacts of a 20-year rotation burn policy in southern California's brushland watersheds and that compares the results to a simulated representation of the observed effects of the fire-exclusion policy. Simulated losses under the fire-exclusion policy were up to 300% higher than those produced by the rotation burn policy. Similarly, the simulated average area burned per year was reduced from 5.6% of the study area under the fire-exclusion policy to 2% of the study area under the rotation burn policy. A corresponding reduction in simulated appropriations for fighting wildfires was also demonstrated.     

STATE VARIABLE MODEL FOR URBAN RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS1

ABSTRACT: A nonlinear hydrologic system model has been developed for analyzing the urban rainfall-runoff process. The model is formulated as a state variable model consisting of several parameters. A search technique is employed to find the set of parameters for which the model's response best fits observed data. The model could be used in either a simulation or forecasting mode. The model is applied to observed data for the Waller Creek Watershed in Austin, Texas, to develop the model parameters for various levels of urbanization of the watershed. The trend of each parameter with respect to levels of urbanization is examined.     

CONNECTING GROUND WATER INFLUXES WITH FISH SPECIES DIVERSITY IN AN URBANIZED WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Valley Creek watershed is a small stream system that feeds the Schuylkill River near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The watershed is highly urbanized, including over 17 percent impervious surface cover (ISC) by area. Imperviousness in a watershed has been linked to fish community structure and integrity. Generally, above 10 to 12 percent ISC there is marked decline in fish assemblages with fish being absent above 25 percent ISC. This study quantifies the importance of ground water in maintaining fish species diversity in subbasins with over 30 percent ISC. Valley Creek contains an atypical fish assemblage in that the majority of the fish are warm‐water species, and the stream supports naturally reproducing brown trout, which were introduced and stocked from the early 1900s to 1985. Fish communities were quantified at 13 stations throughout the watershed, and Simpson's species diversity index was calculated. One hundred and nine springs were located, and their flow rates measured. A cross covariance analysis between Simpson's species diversity index and spring flow rates upstream of fish stations was performed to quantify the spatial correlation between these two variables. The correlation was found to be highest at lag distances up to about 400 m and drop off significantly beyond lag distances of about 800 m.