Projected Freshwater Withdrawals Under Efficiency Scenarios for Electricity Generation and Municipal Use in the United States for 20301

Chen, Limin, Sujoy B. Roy, and Robert A. Goldstein, 2012. Projected Freshwater Withdrawals Under Efficiency Scenarios for Electricity Generation and Municipal Use in the United States for 2030. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐16. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12013 Abstract: Water withdrawals in the United States (U.S.) have been relatively uniform over the past two decades on a nationally aggregated basis, although on a more highly resolved geographical basis, increases have occurred, largely associated with growth in population and the cooling needs for new electricity generation. Using recent county‐level water use data, we develop projections for five different scenarios, bracketing a range of future conditions, and representing different levels of efficiency in the municipal and electricity generation sectors, where the municipal sector includes public and self‐supplied domestic withdrawals. Starting with the 2005 estimate of 347 billion gallons per day (bgd) of freshwater withdrawal in the continental U.S., our analysis shows that under a business‐as‐usual scenario of growth, there will be a need for additional water over current levels: 11 bgd in the municipal sector, with a smaller requirement for new electricity generation (1 bgd). However, we also estimate that withdrawals could be reduced significantly over current levels, through increased water use efficiencies in the electric power and municipal sectors. The study shows that if water withdrawals are to be held at their current levels for the thermoelectric and municipal sectors individually at a county level over the next 25 years, large improvements in efficiency will be needed in many parts of the Southeast and Southwest.     

Influence of Bioenergy Crop Production and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

Land use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services and the effects could be exacerbated by projected climate change. We quantify ecosystem services of bioenergy‐based land use change and estimate the potential changes of ecosystem services due to climate change projections. We considered 17 bioenergy‐based scenarios with Miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn stover as candidate bioenergy feedstock. Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations of biomass/grain yield, hydrology, and water quality were used to quantify ecosystem services freshwater provision (FWPI), food (FPI) and fuel provision, erosion regulation (ERI), and flood regulation (FRI). Nine climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐3 were used to quantify the potential climate change variability. Overall, ecosystem services of heavily row cropped Wildcat Creek watershed were lower than St. Joseph River watershed which had more forested and perennial pasture lands. The provision of ecosystem services for both study watersheds were improved with bioenergy production scenarios. Miscanthus in marginal lands of Wildcat Creek (9% of total area) increased FWPI by 27% and ERI by 14% and decreased FPI by 12% from the baseline. For St. Joseph watershed, Miscanthus in marginal lands (18% of total area) improved FWPI by 87% and ERI by 23% while decreasing FPI by 46%. The relative impacts of land use change were considerably larger than climate change impacts in this paper. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

沼泽湿地生态系统呼吸与温度、氮素及植物生长的相互关系

沼泽湿地生态系统呼吸排放CO₂通量同时受温度、营养元素（N）和植物生长状况的共同影响和相互制约.通过对三江平原沼泽湿地小叶章（Doyeuxia angustifolia）草甸研究发现,CO₂排放通量与温度、氮素和植物生长状况（主要是株高、叶面积和生物量）均存在一定的非线性正相关的关系.其中,生态系统呼吸与温度的变化符合Arrhenius方程.整个生长季生态系统呼吸平均通量与氮输入水平存在指数相关的关系; 与植物体氮含量符合2次函数的关系;与生物量存在对数相关关系;与不同时期的株高均存在较显著的线性相关关系.不同水平的氮输入后,生态系统呼吸与对照处理比较分别升高了20％,42％和142％;生物量分别增大了26％,44％和375％;叶片和植株的氮含量均发生了相应地变化.     

东湖“赤潮”的成因分析及发展趋势

2003年3月下旬东湖水质发生了异常现象,为找到水质明显变化的原因,武汉市环境监测中心站通过及时布点取样分析,监测分析水中的生物群落结构,确认东湖发生了"赤潮",并找出了污染源头。通过跟踪监测,了解多甲藻的变化趋势,并提出对涉及外来物种等海洋馆类建设项目的强化管理的建议。     

模拟盐水入侵对河口湿地土壤碳矿化潜力的影响研究

河口湿地在全球陆地生态系统碳循环中具有重要作用,为了揭示盐水入侵对河口湿地土壤碳矿化潜力的影响,以闽江河口淡水湿地为研究对象,采用室内泥浆厌氧培养与气相色谱法相结合的方法,通过设置高频率盐度梯度的盐水入侵情景模式,对不同处理下的土壤碳矿化潜力(以CO₂产生潜力表征)及其环境调节因子进行连续3周的测定与分析.研究结果表明：(1)不同盐度处理下土壤pH值均低于对照处理(0),氨态氮(NH₄⁺-N)含量均高于对照处理,且随盐度增加而增加,可溶性有机碳(DOC)含量在盐度25‰、30‰处理下高于对照处理,SO₄^2-含量在盐度20‰、25‰、30‰处理下高于对照处理;(2)随着时间的变化,厌氧培养第1周CO₂产生潜力显著高于第2周和第3周(p<0.05),不同盐度处理CO₂产生潜力差异较大,表现为低盐度(0.5‰～10‰)促进和高盐度(15‰～30‰)抑制作用,盐度10‰～15‰可能是影响土壤碳矿化转变的重要转折点;(3)不同盐度处理下C...     

金门地区淡水供应现状及解决途径分析

随着近年来两岸关系的缓和,金门县政府将金门未来定位于"国际观光休闲岛屿",重点发展旅游和教育两大产业。然而,淡水资源的缺乏成为了实现这一目标的现实瓶颈。从气候、地形、经济等方面分析金门地区淡水资源的来源及淡水供应现状,并从开源和节流两方面提出金门地区淡水供应问题的解决途径。     

基于不同毒性终点的壬基酚生态风险评价

NP（nonylphenol,壬基酚）作为一种具有雌激素效应的持久性有机污染物,可对水生态系统产生不可忽视的有害影响,并且随着生产及使用量的增加,NP在国内外水环境中被不同程度地检测出来,引起较大关注,因此有必要对其生态风险进行研究.通过综述部分淡水水体中NP的污染现状,采用物种敏感性分布法（SSD）和联合概率曲线法（JPC）对NP的生态风险进行分析;构建基于生长和发育、生物化学、繁殖和细胞毒性终点的物种敏感度分布曲线;基于4个毒性终点数据,采用联合概率曲线法评估国内外部分淡水水体中NP的生态风险.结果表明:①我国辽河、珠江和骆马湖的ρ（NP）均高于国内平均水平,且总体上我国ρ（NP）平均值为0.709 μg/L.②基于生长和发育、生物化学、繁殖和细胞毒性终点推导的HC₅（5%物种受损有害浓度）值分别为0.694、0.589、0.142和0.317 μg/L.③在所调查水体中,以生长和发育为毒性终点的生态风险相对较小,处于可接受水平;以繁殖、细胞和生物化学为毒性终点的生态风险较高,应采取相关措施保障水生生物的安全.因此,NP对水生生物繁殖的毒性较明显,应持续关注其长期危害.      

淡水湖泊营养状态监测新方法——叶绿素比值模型

选取铜绿微囊藻、鱼腥藻、蛋白核小球藻、汉氏菱形藻、薄甲藻和小定鞭金藻作为湖泊水体从富营养状态到贫营养状态的代表藻种,用热乙醇-反复冻融-分光光度法测定其叶绿素a、b、c的浓度,通过分析叶绿素(chl)的比值、藻类种群组成和水体营养水平之间的响应关系,建立了叶绿素比值模型作为评价水体营养状态的一种新方法.在计算单种藻类chlb/chla、chlc/chla比值的基础上,结合目前我国湖泊水体不同营养水平藻类种群组成的统计数据,得到不同营养状态下多种藻类同时存在时水体chlb/chla和chlc/chla比值的变化曲线.结果表明,在中营养和贫营养水体中,chlc/chla值随营养水平的降低呈明显单调上升的趋势;在富营养化水体中,chlb/chla值随营养水平的降低而呈明显单调上升的趋势.根据这个规律,提出了判断水体营养水平的新标准,即:当chlc/chla0.30时,水体为贫营养;当0.18chlc/chla0.30时,水体为中营养;当chlc/chla0.18时,水体为富营养,此时,需要借助chlb/chla的值进行进一步的判断:当chlb/chla0.14时,水体为轻度富营养化;当0.08chlb/chla0.14时,水体为中度富营养化;当chlb/chla0.08时,水体为重度富营养化.以白洋淀为研究案例,分析结果表明,叶绿素比值模型判断和综合营养状态指数法判断结果相符.因此,叶绿素比值模型可以作为简单、快捷、准确的评价我国淡水湖泊营养状态的方法.     

河口区淡水和微咸水潮汐沼泽湿地沉积物反硝化作用

为探讨河口区淡水和微咸水潮汐沼泽湿地沉积物反硝化作用及影响因素,以分布在闽江口道庆洲上的短叶茳芏(Cyperus malaccensis)淡水沼泽湿地和鳝鱼滩上的短叶茳芏微咸水沼泽湿地沉积物为研究对象,运用乙炔抑制培养法测定不同季节的反硝化速率,同时测定沉积物和上覆水理化性质.结果发现,2个短叶茳芏沼泽湿地沉积物反硝化速率均存在明显的季节变化,最高(最低)值分别出现在夏季(秋季)和春季(冬季),温度是影响反硝化速率季节变化的重要因素.道庆洲沉积物反硝化速率((32.72±19.15)μmol·m~(-2)·h~(-1),以N计,下同)显著高于鳝鱼滩((4.97±2.64)μmol·m~(-2)·h~(-1))(p0.05).沉积物电导率和上覆水SO_4~(2-)含量对河口区潮汐沼泽湿地沉积物反硝化速率具有抑制作用,是造成微咸水沼泽湿地沉积物反硝化速率显著低于淡水沼泽湿地的重要因素.沉积物电导率主要通过抑制沉积物对NH_4~+-N的吸收影响硝化-反硝化耦合作用,进而影响反硝化速率.淡水沼泽湿地反硝化速率对SO_4~(2-)作用的响应较微咸水沼泽湿地更为敏感.     

基于改进输出系数法的矿区重金属面源污染负荷核算模型

借鉴农业面源污染负荷核算研究成果,结合我国实际情况,以输出系数法为基础,提出矿区面源污染负荷核算模型.考虑重金属污染的来源和特点,将矿山地区的土地类型分为尾矿库区、降尘污染区、运输污染区和自然土地4类,分别计算各类型土地的输出系数.考虑到重金属在水中的溶出率影响,在模型中引入了溶出率因子,以构建适应矿区流域的重金属非点源污染负荷核算模型,并用该模型对浑河流域重金属面源负荷进行了估算.结果表明:矿山地区重金属污染主要来自运输污染区和自然土地,占总污染负荷的77%左右.从模拟过程和模拟结果可知,面源污染负荷核算模型所需原始资料较少,参数计算较方便,是计算矿山地区重金属面源污染负荷的可靠方法.