长江中游水生生物多样性保护面临的威胁和压力

长江中游地区作为世界上最大的淡水生态区之一,生物多样性保护具有非常特殊的地位和作用。分析了长江中游地区生物多样性保护面临的主要威胁与压力,认为生境破碎萎缩、资源不合理开发利用、水环境污染、外来物种入侵等是生物多样性面临的主要威胁,而传统方式下的经济增长、土地利用粗放、人口增长与贫困、政策与管理等方面存在的问题将是生物多样性保护面临的主要压力。     

Patterns of selectiveness in the Amazonian freshwater fisheries: implications for management

Tropical fisheries, which are considered multi-species, may show selectiveness. We analyzed the degree of selectivity of fish catches in 46 sites along the Amazon basin through the percentage of biomass corresponding to the most caught fish species. Amazonian fisheries were considered moderately selective, as 54% of the sites directed more than a quarter of fishing effort to one fish species and in 87% of the sites more than half the fishing effort was directed to five fish species. Commercial fisheries were more selective than subsistence fisheries. Eleven fish species (nine of them migratory) have received more fishing pressure in the studied Amazonian regions and the catch composition differed among regions. We thus recommend that fisheries management in the Amazon basin should distribute fishing effort among more fish species; incorporate the particularities of commercial and subsistence fisheries; evaluate fishing effects on ecosystem services; and consider the biological characteristics of preferred fish.     

Characterizing Drought in Irrigated Agricultural Systems: The Surface Water Delivery Index (SWDI)

Quantifying surface water shortages in arid and semiarid agricultural regions is challenging because limited water supplies are distributed over long distances based on complex water management systems constrained by legal, economic, and social frameworks that evolve with time. In such regions, the water supply is often derived in a climate dramatically different from where the water is diverted to meet agricultural demand. The existing drought indices which rely on local climate do not portray the complexities of the economic and legal constraints on water delivery. Nor do these indices quantify the shortages that occur in drought. Therefore, this research proposes a methodological approach to define surface water shortages in irrigated agricultural systems using a newly developed index termed the Surface Water Delivery Index (SWDI). The SWDI can be used to uniformly quantify surface water deficits/shortages at the end of the irrigation season. Results from the SWDI clearly illustrate how water shortages in droughts identified by the existing indices (e.g., SPI and PDSI) vary strongly both within and between basins. Some surface water entities are much more prone to water shortages than other entities based both on their source of water supply and water right portfolios.     

Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region,United States

Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk.     

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

Two-echelon closed-loop supply chain deterministic inventory models in a batch production environment

This paper considers a two-echelon closed-loop supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a remanufacturer at the upper echelon and a retailer at the lower echelon. The retailer faces a constant demand from customers, which is satisfied through recovered and new products received from the remanufacturer and the manufacturer, respectively. The manufacturer produces the product with finite rate, whereas the recovery of returned product is instantaneous at the remanufacturer. We develop three models to determine the optimal production-inventory policy of the players for minimizing the joint total cost of the system. In the first model, the retailer receives the product in batches from the manufacturer and the remanufacture simultaneously, whereas in the second and third models, the batches are received alternatively. In the third model, however, the procurement of raw material at the manufacturer is also considered. Numerical illustration is presented to examine the impact of certain key parameters.     

基于光合色素的化学分类法在淡水藻类研究中的应用

采用反相高效液相色谱技术(RP HPLC)系统研究了我国主要淡水藻类--蓝藻、绿藻、硅藻、甲藻、金藻、裸藻和隐藻等的光合色素,在8种纯培养藻类中共确定类胡萝卜素、叶绿素及其衍生物19种。分离到的主要标志性色素按洗脱时间分别为脱植基叶绿素a、19′ 丁酰氧岩藻黄素、叶绿素c、脱镁叶绿素a、多甲藻素、甲基脱植基叶绿素a、岩藻黄素、新黄质、紫黄质、蓝藻叶黄素、硅甲藻黄素、硅藻黄质、叶黄素、玉米黄素、叶绿素b异构体、叶绿素b、叶绿素a异构体、叶绿素a和β 胡萝卜素;其中在纯培养的铜绿微囊藻中首次鉴定到19′ 丁酰氧岩藻黄素;通过官桥基地的实际监测,证实了该技术应用的可行性,为基于HPLC分析技术的浮游植物化学分类法提供了理论依据。     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

中国21世纪城市供水新概念--分质供水

结合我国城市一直使用的统一给水方式已与当前水资源紧缺,用水多样化,人们饮用水质质化的状况极不适应的情况,提出对传统的给水方式进行改革的最适宜方式是分质供水。     

城市给水管网优化设计研究

研究了几种典型的城市给水管网优化设计数学模型,并给出了求解方法,指出在给水管网系统的优化设计中进一步完善广义简约(GRG)算法的必要性.