Objectives for Multiple-Species Conservation Planning

Abstract:  The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat. Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities had to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.     

低浓度SO2熏气对油桐幼苗光系统结构和功能的影响

采用开顶式熏气装置,以浓度为0.8571mg·m-3的SO2对二三年生的油桐(Vernicia fordii)幼苗进行118 d熏气试验.结果表明长期低浓度SO2熏气处理引起光化学猝灭、非光化学猝灭、表观光合电子传递速率(ETR)下降,荧光产量(Ft)增加,光系统Ⅱ(PSⅡ)的光能转换效率和潜在活性下降;光系统Ⅰ(PSⅠ)的潜在活性和光能转换效率也下降.因此认为长期低浓度SO2熏气处理引起PSⅠ和PSⅡ结构破坏,导致光系统光能转换效率和系统潜在活性的下降.     

洞庭湖区退田还湖生态补偿机制

以洞庭湖区退田还湖的生态补偿为例,初步探讨了有关生态补偿的3个基本问题,即补偿支付者和接受者的问题,补偿强度的问题和补偿渠道的问题。     

A weight-adjusted Peto’s test when cause of death is not assigned

A new statistical testing approach using a weighted logrank statistic is developed for rodent tumorigenicity assays that have a single terminal sacrifice but not cause-of-death data. Instead of using cause-of-death assignment by pathologists, the number of fatal tumors is estimated by a constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation method. For data lacking cause-of-death information, the Peto test is modified with estimated numbers of fatal tumors and a Fleming–Harrington-type weight, which is based on an estimated tumor survival function. A bootstrap resampling method is used to estimate the weight function. The proposed testing method with the weight adjustment appears to improve the performance in various situations of single-sacrifice animal experiments. A Monte Carlo simulation study for the proposed test is conducted to assess size and power of the test. This testing approach is illustrated using a real data set.     

保守性污染物风险水环境容量的随机估算模式研究

本文以对数正态分布理论为基础,建立了利用矩量近似法(Moment Approximation)与数值积分法(Numeral Interal Methed)计算风险水环境容量的随机估算模式,并由此提出了水质功能标准概率分布概念。风险水环境容量随机估算模式的提出拓展了水环境容量的概念与内函,为计算风险水环境容量开辟了新的途径。     

大气气溶胶粒子质量浓度分布规律研究

在可吸入性颗粒物粒径范围内(d_p<10μm),上海市区大气中气溶胶粒子质量浓度分布为双峰型,峰值出现在1.0μm左右(积聚模态粒子区)和4.5μm左右(粗粒子区),且呈现大粒径处峰值大于小粒径处峰值的趋势。与质量浓度分布曲线相似,质量概率密度分布也为双峰型,峰值出现在0.8μm左右和4.0μm左右。模拟结果表明,上海市区大气中气溶胶粒子质量概率密度分布规律符合双重分布函数:y=exp[-(a_4d~4 a_3d~3 a_2d~2 a_1d a_0)],所表征的类型,应用双重分布函数能解释大气气溶胶粒子的分布规律。     

关于省级环境监测站职能定位问题的思考

分析了省级环境监测站现状,提出了省级环境监测站应具备的基本职能和发展重点构想。     

水质评价和监测的生物学方法进展

从生物群落结构和功能的角度，阐述了生物监测和评价研究的现状；目前利用水生生物进行水质评价和监测的一些主要研究方法及发展趋势。     

大气质量评价上海指数法的改进及应用

该研究将模糊数学应用于上海指数法，在评价函数中引入半梯形隶属函数和倍斜率隶属函数，提出模糊上海指数法，将此法应用于延安市的大气质量评价工人,欧几里德贴近度法和上海指法的结果进行比较表明，模糊上海指数法的评价结果是科学合理的，并利用地理信息系统Mapinfo制作出基于地理信息的城市大气质量评价图，使评价结果可视化，地图化。     

Fuzzy Logic Model to Estimate Seasonal Pseudo Steady State Chlorophyll-A Concentrations in Reservoirs

A fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate pseudo steady state chlorophyll-a concentrations in a very large and deep dam reservoir, namely Keban Dam Reservoir, which is also highly spatial and temporal variable. The estimation power of the developed fuzzy logic model was tested by comparing its performance with that from the classical multiple regression model. The data include chlorophyll-a concentrations in Keban lake as a response variable, as well as several water quality variables such as PO₄ phosphorus, NO₃ nitrogen, alkalinity, suspended solids concentration, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen concentration and Secchi depth as independent environmental variables. Because of the complex nature of the studied water body, as well as non-significant functional relationships among the water quality variables to the chlorophyll-a concentration, an initial analysis is conducted to select the most important variables that can be used in estimating the chlorophyll-a concentrations within the studied water body. Following the outcomes from this initial analysis, the fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate the chlorophyll-a concentrations and the advantages of this new model is demonstrated in model fitting over the traditional multiple regression method.