基于多因素信息融合的城市供水安全评价系统

为了确定城市供水安全状态,提出1种基于多因素信息融合思想的城市供水安全评价方法。以城市供水安全指标体系为基础,建立供水安全指标与基本概率指派函数焦元的对应关系;采用组合权重确定各评价指标的权重值作为对指标证据的支持程度,通过加权合成方法得到各因素定量、定性信息的基本概率指派函数值,利用证据理论的Dempster组合规则进行因素融合。研究结果表明:以郑州市供水安全指标体系为例,在进行多指标信息融合时与解决证据冲突的融合方法计算结果相同,郑州市2006——2008年城市供水处于不安全状态,2008年以后安全等级逐步升高且趋于稳定状态,可以预测出在未来一段时间郑州市的供水处于安全状态。     

Evaluation of effect of different membership functions on risk assessment

This study aims to define the relationship between risk degrees and risk indexes on different functional structures with the assumption that risk degrees may not always present a linear relationship with the risk indexes. In this way, risk indexes suitable for expert evaluation of working conditions and computed using three different membership functions are determined. Among the membership functions used, one is preferred as linear and the others are preferred as non-linear. Additionally, a new fuzzy risk assessment (RA) algorithm is developed using these three membership functions. With this new fuzzy RA algorithm, a more flexible and precise process becomes available, while information loss during the determination of the risk index of danger sources is prevented. As a result, non-linear increasing membership function is selected as most suitable for the expression of the relationship between risk degrees and risk indexes.     

云南森林生态功能区农户生态补偿支付意愿(WTP)影响因素及差异性分析

生态补偿是协调经济与资源环境和谐发展,化解生态环境与经济增长矛盾的有效手段,对推进生态文明建设意义深远。基于云南省5个州市农户调查数据,运用二元Probit模型,分析了云南森林生态功能区农户生态补偿支付意愿的关键影响因素及其差异性。研究表明:大部分农户愿意为生态补偿付费,影响其支付意愿的主要因素是性别、年龄、是否兼业、家庭人口数、非农收入比重、生态补偿重要性认知、森林经济效益是否比生态效益重要、生态环境满意度、政府是否对生态环境保护宣传、政策执行信任度以及信息获取难易程度;其中年龄、家庭农业劳动力人数和信息获取难易程度对专业户支付意愿有重要影响,而家庭人口数、非农收入比重以及获得政府补偿的情况对兼业户支付意愿有重要影响;是否兼业、非农收入比重、对生态补偿了解程度以及信息获取难易程度对传统散户支付意愿影响较大;对政策执行的信任程度和产业发展程度对种植大户支付意愿有重要影响。基于此,提出了完善政府农村就业服务职能,鼓励农户非农就业、创业;完善生态功能区环境教育体系和宣传制度建设,强化农户环保意识;强化政府职责及其政策推广、执行力度,构建综合、完善的生态补偿宣传媒介;制定并实施差异化的生态补偿措施等具体对策建议。     

Organisational challenges in the United Kingdom's post‐disaster ‘crisis support’ work

Local authorities in the United Kingdom are required to ‘lead’ multi‐agency humanitarian responses to major disasters. Concerns mounted in the late twentieth century that responses to people bereaved in the immediate aftermath of such events at best failed to meet their needs and at worst compounded their distress. Subsequent reviews and reforms reframed some victim needs as ‘rights’ and established legal, administrative, and practice frameworks to improve matters. Local authority ‘crisis support’, provided in partnership with other actors, lies at the heart of the UK's contemporary emergency response to the bereaved. Drawing on primary research on the development and the deployment of crisis support in a local authority, and while acknowledging both incident‐ and context‐related difficulties, this paper considers the significance of challenges with their origins in organisational factors. Recent developments within and between responders may exacerbate them. This paper argues, therefore, that further research into such developments is necessary.     

The Crisis Map of the Czech Republic: the nationwide deployment of an Ushahidi application for disasters

Crisis mapping is a legitimate component of both crisis informatics and disaster risk management. It has become an effective tool for humanitarian workers, especially after the earthquake in Haiti in 2010. Ushahidi is among the many mapping platforms on offer in the growing field of crisis mapping, and involves the application of crowdsourcing to create online and interactive maps of areas in turmoil. This paper presents the Crisis Map of the Czech Republic, which is the first such instrument to be deployed nationwide in Central Europe. It describes the methodologies used in the preparatory work phase and details some practices identified during the creation and actual employment of the map. In addition, the paper assesses its structure and technological architecture, as well as its potential possible development in the future. Lastly, it evaluates the utilisation of the Crisis Map during the floods in the Czech Republic in 2013.     

An Index to Measure Depreciation in Air Quality in Some Coal Mining Areas of Korba Industrial Belt of Chhattisgarh, India

The comparison with National Ambient Air Quality Standards does not always depict a true pic-ture of the Air Quality Status of a study area. As an alternative an index that measures depreciation in Air Quality on more realistic terms has been proposed and applied to the ambient air monitoring data collected from some areas of Korba Coalfields in India. Results have been discussed in detail to illustrate the applica-tion of the proposed index and utility in bringing out more realistic air quality assessment.     

大气污染与儿童肺功能的典型相关分析

在 1 994～ 1 996年间 ,对污染点和对照点 (相对清洁点 )同时进行了大气污染 (气溶胶 ,二氧化硫等 )和儿童肺功能 (FVC,FEV1 ,FEF2 5～ 75 等 )的测定。对它们之间的关系进行了典型相关分析 ,其结果是肺功能指标和大气污染物呈负相关。统计分析提示污染点与对照点儿童肺功能的差别主要是由于大气污染 (气溶胶 )造成的 ,特别是 PM2 .5 的细粒子造成的。     

重庆大气污染与儿童肺功能横截面研究

1995年 ,在重庆市城区及远郊区进行了儿童家庭问卷调查、气溶胶 (PM1 0 、PM2 .5 )及 SO2 的测试 ,并在两个点 (城区华新小学 ,远郊北碚红岩小学 )进行二次儿童肺功能的测定。通过城区和郊区 3 53 6例 (其中男性 1 74 4例 ,女性 1 792例 )儿童肺功能数据的比较 ,说明重庆大气污染 ,特别是气溶胶的污染已影响到儿童肺功能。与美国比较 ,重庆儿童较美国的儿童肺功能 (FVC,FEV1 )要低 9%～ 1 4 %。同时得到青春前期 (7～ 1 4岁 )儿童肺功能 (FVC,FEV1 )的参考值的计算公式     

儿童肺功能指标测量方法比较及异常值的探讨

比较了儿童肺功能机读数据与人工手测数据 ,并应用统计学原理探讨了适合于研究空气污染暴露与儿童肺功能健康关系的 FVC实测值 /预计值 (% )、FEV1 实测值 /预计值 (% )、FEV1 /FVC(% )这三种肺功能指标的异常值分界线。得出 FVC或 FEV1 实测值 /预计值 (% )的异常值范围为 <85% ,FEV1 /FVC(% )的异常值范围为 <80 %     

环境预测中灰色模型的EXCEL解法

提出了利用EXCEL应用软件建立GM（1,N）预测模型的建模方法,并结合实例介绍了建立河流高锰酸盐指数GM（1,3）模型的操作过程。