柳州市社会、经济、资源、环境协调发展评价

运用主成分分析法评价了2000～2006年柳州市社会、经济与资源、环境各子系统的综合发展水平,并通过隶属度函数测算社会、经济、资源、环境各系统间的协调发展状况,找出柳州市可持续发展过程中存在的问题。结果表明：近年来柳州市的社会、经济、资源、环境各系统的综合发展水平不断提高、4个系统间的协调发展状况良好,但柳州市的经济结构还不够合理,经济增长方式仍然较粗放,资源利用率和环境保护工作有待进一步提高。最后提出了相应对策。     

论创建环境友好型交通工程——以泰州大桥为例

在加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的背景下,以生态学和环境科学角度论述交通工程的生态功能。从泰州大桥建设实际出发,阐述创建环境友好型工程须遵循的理论基础及方法原理,提出创建工作要点,为泰州大桥创建环境友好型工程提供理论和技术参考。     

铁岭市柴河水源供水工程对柴河水库功能影响研究

本文对供水工程实施后对水库功能的环境影响进行了分析,提出了相应的环境保护对策,对柴河水库水质的保护起到了一定的积极作用。     

新建交通干线两侧声环境功能区划分问题及对策建议

随着我国交通运输事业的迅速发展,新建交通干线两侧声环境功能区划分时出现了变更程序过于简单和草率,划分标准不符合交通干线噪声的源强特点和衰减规律,两侧群众声环境权益保障范围不合理等问题。提出了规范声环境功能区变更程序,完善相关标准,建立合理可行的补偿机制的对策建议。     

矩形巷道围岩应力解析解

为得出矩形断面巷道围岩应力分布特征,采用复变函数解法对矩形巷道围岩弹性应力进行解析,得出了应力分量的曲线坐标表达式;分析了巷道高宽比和侧压对围岩应力的影响.结果表明,高宽相等时巷道最大应力最小,边界最大应力随侧压系数增大而增大.无论侧压和高宽比如何变化,四角附近区域应力集中系数均最大.同高宽比情况下,随侧压增加,矩形巷道径向应力的峰值近似呈线性增加,环向应力峰值减小,径向应力和环向应力峰值均向围岩内部迁移.相同侧压下,随巷道高宽比增大,径向应力和环向应力峰值均向围岩内部迁移.相同高宽比和侧压下,距离巷道右帮越远,径向应力越大,环向压应力先增后减.     

Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model

This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31 years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land‐management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high‐flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.     

Fe(Ⅲ)对海藻酸钙凝胶层过滤特性的影响

为考察饮用水处理膜工艺中Fe(Ⅲ)对多糖污染层过滤特性的影响,本研究以海藻酸钠为模型多糖污染物,分析海藻酸钙在有Fe(Ⅲ)及无Fe(Ⅲ)存在时形成污染层的过滤特性,并用压缩性方程及渗透性方程对凝胶层的过滤特性进行定量描述.研究结果表明,Ca2+的存在会使海藻酸钠分子间结合,形成内部结合紧密的凝胶层,产生较大的过滤阻力;往海藻酸钙溶液中进一步加入Fe(Ⅲ)后,由于可溶性Fe(Ⅲ)较易水解,加入Fe Cl3后溶液中铁离子和铁的氧化物/氢氧化物颗粒同时存在,少量Fe(Ⅲ)对海藻酸钙凝胶层的过滤特性影响不大,较多量Fe(Ⅲ)会形成铁的氧化物/氢氧化物颗粒,一定程度上改变了凝胶层的结构,使过滤性能变好.     

Modeling and optimization of activated sludge bulking for a real wastewater treatment plant using hybrid artificial neural networks-genetic algorithm approach

Prediction of sludge bulking is a matter of growing importance around the world. Sludge volume index (SVI) should be monitored to predict sludge bulking for a wastewater treatment plant. This study was an effort to develop hybrid artificial neural network-genetic algorithm models (MLPANN-GA and RBFANN-GA) to accurately predict SVI. Operating parameters, including MLVSS, pH, DO, temperature, TSS, COD and total nitrogen were the inputs of neural networks. Genetic algorithm was utilized in order to optimize weights and thresholds of the MLPANN and RFBANN models. Training procedures for SVI estimation were successful for both the MLPANN-GA and RBFANN-GA models. The training and validation models showed an almost perfect match between experimental and predicted values of SVI. The results indicated that with low experimental values of input data to train ANNs, the MLPANN-GA compared with the RBFANN-GA is more accurate due to higher coefficient of determination (R²) and lower root mean squared error (RMSE) values. The values of RMSE and R² for the optimal models approached 0 and 1, respectively. The mean average error for the ANN models did not exceed 3% of the input values of the measured SVI. The GA increased the accuracy of all the MLPANN and RBFANN models.     

科尔沁沙地水资源投入对粮食生产的影响定量研究 ——以奈曼旗为例

借鉴Cobb-Douglas全要素生产函数,以粮食总产量为因变量,以包括年降水量等气候要素、 耕地面积等经济要素和化肥施用量等技术要素在内的10项投入为自变量,构建1987年至2008年期间奈曼旗农业生产投入产出模型。结果表明:①影响奈曼旗粮食总产量的关键因素为农业劳动力(t=9.44,P/=0.00)、 年降水量(t=8.33,P=0.00)和灌溉用水量(t=6.89,P=0.00)。 除农业劳动力外,其他两项因子均与水资源有关;年降水量和灌溉用水量的弹性系数均大于1,说明粮食总产量的增长倍数高于水资源投入的增长倍数,水资源的继续投入将导致粮食产出快速增长。②根据模型,农业劳动力、 灌溉用水量、 年降水量的回归系数分别为5.13、 1.55和1.46,显示当地劳动力投入及水资源投入均存在不足,单独增加某个投入要素即会导致粮食产出以更快速度增长;随着奈曼旗农业劳动力不断减少,且年降水量波动性增强且呈下降趋势,粗放式的灌溉明显加强。根据模型,其他投入要素不变、农业劳动力减少1%时,灌溉用水量增加3.31%;其他投入要素不变、 年降水量减少1%时,灌溉用水量增加0.94%。③降水的波动会导致粮食单产量的波动,而灌溉用水量在很大程度上影响了粮食单产量水平(R²=0.543);降水量的减少导致农民通过扩大播种面积来获得增产,因此降水量的年际变化和播种面积的年际变化之间呈现明显的反向变动关系。总体来讲,奈曼旗农业生产对灌溉用水的依赖程度不断加大。随着灌溉用水的持续投入,其增产作用将逐渐降低,并且对当地脆弱生态系统带来进一步的压力。     

基于未确知测度的岩体稳定性多元联系度评价模型*

为准确评定岩体稳定性等级,引入未确知测度理论、多元联系度理论和同异反确定不确定体系,建立基于未确知测度的岩体稳定性多元联系度评价模型。该模型通过指标组合权重值和单指标测度矩阵,得出多指标综合测度矩阵、同异反联系度矩阵和模糊评价矩阵。并借助多元联系度定量计算待评岩体的评价等级、定性分析及准确预判岩体稳定性的发展趋势,较好地优化置信度评价过程,克服传统模型不能定量表达不确定性因素的缺陷,而且拓展指标隶属等级交叉的特性。以1号岩体为例,研究结果表明:岩体的稳定性等级为Ⅲ级,处于基本稳定状态,但有着向不稳定状态（Ⅳ级）移动的趋势。模型的评价结果与实际结果相吻合,说明应用该模型评判岩体稳定性等级是有效可行的。