UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATING BANKFULL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Bankfull depth and discharge are basic input parameters to stream planform, stream restoration, and highway crossing designs, as well as to the development of hydraulic geometry relationships and the classification of streams. Unfortunately, there are a wide variety of definitions for bankfull that provide a range of values, and the actual selection of bankfull is subjective. In this paper, the relative uncertainty in determining the bankfull depth and discharge is quantified, first by examining the variability in the estimates of bankfull and second by using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth. Fuzzy numbers are used to incorporate uncertainty due to vagueness in the definition of bankfull and subjectivity in the selection of bankfull. Examples are provided that demonstrate the use of a fuzzy bankfull depth in sediment trans. port and in stream classification. Using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth rather than a deterministic value allows the engineer to base designs and decisions on a range of possible values and associated degrees of belief that the bankfull depths take on each value in that range.     

MODELING THE BUILDUP AND WASHOFF OF POLLUTANTS ON URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for urban stormwater quality was developed in this study. The basis for the model is the process by which pollutants build up on the watershed surface. For the wet climate of the study site, it was assumed that there exists an interval of time over which the pollutant buildup equals the pollutant washoff (no accumulation of pollutant). The buildup model was represented by a linear function of the antecedent dry time. The buildup function was then linked with a pollutant washoff model represented by a power function of the storm runoff volume. Various time intervals for no net accumulation were tested to calibrate the model. The model was calibrated to observed data for two small urban basins in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and model results were used to analyze the behavior of phosphorus concentrations in storm runoff from these basins over a long period of time.     

THE ARMA MODELS APPLIED TO THE FLOW OF KARSTIC SPRINGS1

ABSTRACT: Autoregressive moving average (ABMA) models have been applied to study the flow series of the karstic springs of La Villa, Fuente Mayor (Spain), and Aliou (France). The theoretical meaning of the parameters involved in the model upon applying it to a simplified scheme of the emptying of a karstic aquifer is first analyzed. The types of transformations necessary to apply these models to the flow series that lack normality and have strong periodic components are also indicated, as are the advantages of this type of model and the physical significance of the parameters obtained, with respect to the standpoint of hydraulics, ranging from rather homogeneous aquifers (La Villa) to extremely karstic (Aliou), including aquifers with intermediate characteristics (Fuente Mayor).     

建筑火灾区域模拟竖孔流动的计算

本文根据建筑火灾双层区域模拟思想，给出其常微分控制方程组，并分析了其压力求解方法，然后，运用伯努力利方程推导了相邻房间通过矩形竖孔（门或窗）的质量流率计算公式，还讨论了竖孔流动中性面产生条件。在此基础上，结合一两房间、两孔建筑中烟气运动实例，运用Ｃ．Ｗ．Ｇｅａｒ刚性稳定算法对火灾发展及烟气流动过程进行了数值模拟；给出各竖孔中性面位置、数量和各主环境之间通过竖孔的质量流率；还给出各房间气体平均温升、     

正交化方法在水质模型参数确定中的应用

本文根据常微分方程参数反问题的数学理论，将正交化方法同有限差分法结合用于确定水质模型参数，并与正则化方法、最速下降法和共轭梯度法作了比较。其计算结果对比表明，正交化方法具有快速、简便、可靠的特点。更适合于水质模型参数的确定。     

可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论及实证研究(Ⅱ)--理论框架与概念化范式

可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论研究,不仅可以实现对灾害空间数据进行有效的集成管理和时空分析,而且为灾害的防治、应急管理和工程论证等提供可靠的依据,是解决灾害实验的危险性和不可重复性的最佳途径.本文提出可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论的概念、研究对象和方法,综述该理论所需要涉及多种跨学科的技术支持,提出灾害数字仿真重构理论的实施流程,按照致灾因子孕育、发生以及作用于承灾体形成灾害的过程为线索,建立灾害数字仿真模型的概念化范式.上述工作共同构成灾害数字仿真重构的完整理论体系.     

昆明-楚雄-大理-丽江地区地震软风险区划实例

应用云南省昆明市、楚雄州、大理州、丽江市1900—2000年这100年内M≥5．0的地震记录资料，对该地区的地震灾害软风险区划进行了实例分析。结果表明，软风险区划图是以带有“层”结构的地图形式表述风险评估结果的，而“层”是根据可能性水平来划分的。因此，软风险区划图对分析结果的表述，不仅能对风险分析提供更多的信息，而且能提供风险值可信度的信息，从而使风险图“服务信息”丰富化。     

采用磁流变阻尼器的地震结构模糊控制

以磁流变阻尼器所在层的层间位移和层速度响应为输入变量，以控制电流为输出变量，根据抗震规范和实际经验提出了模糊控制器的合理的设计方法。对一个3层钢筋混凝土结构进行了实例分析，结果表明，模糊控制无论是对于位移响应还是加速度响应都有较好的控制效果。     

基于模糊评判人工神经网络的重大危险源辨识研究

国家已经制定了重大危险源辨识标准,辨识依据是危险物质的数量,主要适用于化工行业.本文对于国家重大危险源辨识标准不适合的行业,结合各行业发生事故的特点和工艺特征,综合利用模糊评判法和人工神经网络,辨识企业内存在的重大危险源.在某化工厂进行了检验,实践证明了方法的科学性和合理性.     

以人为因素为中心的航空安全多级模糊综合评价

在航空安全中,根据SHEL模型,以人为因素为中心,列出影响航空安全的一级和二级指标进行多级模糊综合评价,得出各指标对航空安全的影响权重,从而采取相应措施,即加强组织内的横向纵向沟通交流,加大机务方面的培训力度,严格按照标准操作程序,形成公正合理、积极向上的企业文化,以提高航空安全.