堤防工程综合安全模型和风险评价体系研究及应用

为获得荆南长江干堤的安全特性,在层次分析法及模糊一致理论的基础上,考虑堤防工程水、土两相系材料的特点,建立了模糊综合评判系统结构模型。通过正态型模糊隶属函数,结合两种权值理论实现了对堤防工程的安全综合评判。在模糊综合评判结论的基础上,结合模式识别的间接方法,提出了广义多维加权模糊识别模型,实现了对典型堤身段的安全模式识别,并对模型指标体系作了敏感性分析。所得成果比较全面地反映了干堤在复杂运行条件下的综合安全特性,对指导工程现场管理与监测有现实意义。对于复杂堤防系统,模糊综合评判是实现全面风险分析的有效手段,而广义多维加权模糊识别模型可以为工程安全决策提供有力依据。     

Error propagation in pesticide residue measurements estimated by computational simulations and inter-laboratory sample analysis

An assessment of the error associated with conventional pesticide residue analysis has been conducted based on computer simulations and inter-laboratory residue analysis. Computational simulations were conducted based on (i) typical performance and regulatory acceptance criteria of analytical methods, and (ii) field residue distributions. In addition, field samples with incurred residues were sent to different private laboratories and the results compared. The relative difference in pesticide residues obtained when samples from the same field or produce lot are analyzed at separate laboratories was used to quantify the uncertainty associated with residue analyses performed using common analytical technology, and methods that are in compliance with current regulatory requirements. The study showed that differences of > 100% are common and should be expected when samples from the same crop are analyzed at different laboratories. The results also suggest that the error within residue measurements can be particularly detrimental when a result is reported near the maximum residue limit (MRL).     

Growth, photosynthesis and antioxidant responses of two microalgal species, Chlorella vulgaris and Selenastrum capricornutum, to nonylphenol stress

The effect of nonylphenol (NP) on growth, photochemistry and biochemistry of two green microalgae, Chlorella vulgaris and Selenanstrum capricornutum, and their ability to degrade NP were compared. The 96 h EC₅₀ of C. vulgaris and S. capricornutum were greater than 4.0 and 1.0 mg L⁻¹ NP, respectively, suggesting that the former species was more tolerant to NP. Both microalgae acclimated to NP stress through down-regulating their photosynthetic activities, including antenna size (chlorophyll a content), maximal photochemistry (Fv/Fm) and the light absorbed by PSII (ABS/CS₀), but the dissipation of energy from reaction centres (DI₀/RC) increased with the increase of NP concentrations. In C. vulgaris, the changes of these parameters were more significant than in S. capricornutum and recovered completely after a 96 h exposure. The antioxidant responses, such as GSH content, CAT and POD activities in C. vulgaris increased with the increase of NP concentrations after a 24 h exposure, but these changes disappeared with exposure time and recovered to the control levels after 96 h. In S. capricornutum, although GSH content, CAT and POD activities also increased when exposed to low- to moderate-NP concentrations, these values were significantly reduced at a high concentration (4 mg L⁻¹) even after a 96 h exposure, indicating its antioxidant responses were significantly delayed. It is clear that the more NP-tolerant species, C. vulgaris, acclimated better with a faster recovery of its photosynthetic activity from the NP-induced damage, and exhibited more efficient and rapid responses to NP-induced oxidative stress. C. vulgaris also had a higher NP degradation ability than S. capricornutum.     

Seasonal variation of organochlorine contaminants in bonito (Sarda sarda L. 1758) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus L. 1758) in Black Sea region, Turkey

The concentrations of indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine insecticides were determined in bonito (Sardasarda L. 1758) and anchovy (Engraulisencrasicolus L. 1758) from the Black Sea, Turkey. Concentrations of total indicator PCBs ranged between <1-17.0 in bonito, and <1-17.5 ng/g fresh weight in anchovy, and total of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis-chlorophenyl-ethane and its metabolites’ (DDTs) concentrations ranged between 13.4-26.3, and 2.96-19.0 ng/g fresh weight in bonito and anchovy respectively. PCB 52, p,p′-DDE and endosulfan (α + β) were found dominant in both of the fish species. Except endosulfan, and some DDT metabolites, none of the studied organochlorine pesticides was detected in the fish samples. Concentrations of PCBs in anchovy were found higher than those in bonito, whereas DDT and endosulfan concentrations were found similar in both of the fish species. All of the fish samples had residue concentrations below the maximum residue limits (MRL) recommended by FAO/WHO Codex Alimentarius Commission.     

基于广义加权组合预测法的建设用地需求预测——以苏州市为例

对现行采用的多种常用建设用地需求量预测方法进行了比较,并以苏州市为例,采用5种预测模型进行了对比分析,利用近13年的统计数据进行了验证.结果表明,广义加权组合预测法得到的结果误差最小、精度最高.     

化学品反应危险性分级方法研究与应用

针对化学品反应危险性的评价,介绍利用最大分解热,反应放热功率,绝热反应参数等方法对化学品反应危险性进行分级的几种方法及各自特点。通过分析整合不同分级方法,提出一种基于实测反应放热参数的分级方法,此方法以初始放热温度和反应热组成指标体系,同时配合燃爆曲线实现对化学品反应危险性的分级,得到的结果对于化学品的安全评价有较强的参考价值。考察了6种有机过氧化物的放热性质,诠释了有机过氧化物的反应危险性,应用所提出的反应危险性分级方法对其进行分级,并对分级方法进行了验证。该方法结合了实验结果和多种分级方法的优点,使化学品反应危险性分级方法具有更强的实用性。     

Field‐Scale Application of Three Types of Neural Networks to Predict Ground‐Water Levels1

Abstract: In this paper, a field‐scale applicability of three forms of artificial neural network algorithms in forecasting short‐term ground‐water levels at specific control points is presented. These algorithms are the feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP), radial basis networks (RBN), and generalized regression networks (GRN). Ground‐water level predictions from these algorithms are in turn to be used in an Optimized Regional Operations Plan that prescribes scheduled wellfield production for the coming four weeks. These models are up against each other for their accuracy of ground‐water level predictions on lead times ranging from a week to four weeks, ease of implementation, and execution times (mainly training time). In total, 208 networks of each of the three algorithms were developed for the study. It is shown that although learning algorithms have emerged as a viable solution at field scale much larger than previously studied, no single algorithm performs consistently better than others on all the criteria. On average, FFBP networks are 20 and 26%, respectively, more accurate than RBN and GRN in forecasting one week ahead water levels and this advantage drops to 5 and 9% accuracy in forecasting four weeks ahead water levels, whereas GRN posted a training time that is only 5% of the training time taken by that of FFBP networks. This may suggest that in field‐scale applications one may have to trade between the type of algorithm to be used and the degree to which a given objective is honored.     

跨河道桥工程防洪风险管理体系研究

针对目前我国河道管理的现状，在原有防洪影响评价的基础上，综合运用广义结构可靠性原理及多种相关学科理论，提出了跨河道桥工程防洪风险的评价理念，建立了跨河道桥工程防洪风险的评价指标体系和管理体系，并结合工程实例验证了方法体系的适用性与可靠性。     

ESTIMATING TMDL BACKGROUND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOADING TO GREAT LAKES TRIBUTARIES FROM EXISTING DATA1

ABSTRACT: The total maximum daily load (TMDL) for suspended sediment is the maximum quantity of suspended sediment that can enter a waterway without affecting the beneficial uses of the waterway. It is calculated as the sum of permissible allotments of point sources of suspended sediment, permissible allotments of nonpoint sources of suspended sediment, background (natural) loading of suspended sediment, and a margin of safety. The goal of this project was to develop methods for estimating background levels of sediment loads in tributaries of the Great Lakes. Such quantification is key to determining permissible TMDL in waters that do not meet water quality standards under the Clean Water Act of 1972. Suspended sediment loading for 46 rivers was estimated from data collected at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gages. Land use and physiographic attributes were estimated for these gaged basins with a geographic information system (GIS). Basin attributes and sediment yield data are the basis for examining two approaches to estimating background suspended sediment loads. One method, based upon envelope curves of sediment yield and drainage area, will be shown to have considerable merit. A second method, based upon correlation of sediment yield to various basin attributes such as drainage area and land use, will be shown to be fraught with difficulties.     

GROUPWISE MODELING STUDY OF BACTERIALLY IMPAIRED WATERSHEDS IN TEXAS: CLUSTERING ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Under the Clean Water Act (CWA) program, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) listed 110 stream segments in the year 2000 with pathogenic bacteria impairment. A study was conducted to evaluate the probable sources of pollution and characterize the watersheds associated with these impaired water bodies. The primary aim of the study was to group the water bodies into clusters having similar watershed characteristics and to examine the possibility of studying them as a group by choosing models for total maximum daily load (TMDL) development based on their characteristics. This approach will help to identify possible sources and determine appropriate models and hence reduce the number of required TMDL studies. This in turn will help in reducing the effort required to restore the health of the impaired water bodies in Texas. The main characteristics considered for the classification of water bodies were land use distribution within the watershed, density of stream network, average distance of land of a particular use to the closest stream, household population, density of on‐site sewage facilities (OSSFs), bacterial loading from different types of farm animals and wildlife, and average climatic conditions. The climatic data and observed instream fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were analyzed to evaluate seasonal variability of instream water quality. The grouping of water bodies was carried out using the multivariate statistical techniques of factor analysis/principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and discriminant analysis. The multivariate statistical analysis resulted in six clusters of water bodies. The main factors that differentiated the clusters were found to be bacterial contribution from farm animals and wildlife, density of OSSFs, density of households connected to public sewers, and land use distribution.