Predicted Climate‐Driven Bird Distribution Changes and Forecasted Conservation Conflicts in a Neotropical Savanna

Abstract: Climate‐change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts of predicted climate‐driven change on the distribution and conservation of 26 broad‐range birds from South America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts of grasslands and forests). We used 12 temperature or precipitation‐related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (for 2030, 2065, 2099) for each species to model distribution ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we used an ensemble‐forecasting approach to obtain an average distribution for each species at each time interval. We estimated the range extent and shift of each species. Changes in range size varied across species and according to habitat dependency; future predicted range extent was negatively correlated with current predicted range extent in all scenarios. Evolution of range size under full or null dispersal scenarios varied among species from a 5% increase to an 80% decrease. The mean expected range shifts under null and full‐dispersal scenarios were 175 and 200 km, respectively (range 15–399 km), and the shift was usually toward southeastern Brazil. We predicted larger range contractions and longer range shifts for forest‐ and grassland‐dependent species than for savanna‐dependent birds. A negative correlation between current range extent and predicted range loss revealed that geographically restricted species may face stronger threat and become even rarer. The predicted southeasterly direction of range changes is cause for concern because ranges are predicted to shift to the most developed and populated region of Brazil. Also, southeastern Brazil is the least likely region to contain significant dispersal corridors, to allow expansion of Cerrado vegetation types, or to accommodate creation of new reserves.     

鄱阳湖径流量时间序列的混沌特征分析

流域径流受诸多因素影响,变化复杂,仅凭观测站统计数据难以发现其演变规律。以混沌理论为基础,以鄱阳湖入湖外洲站、李家渡站和渡峰坑站的月径流时间序列为研究对象详细说明了求取时间序列中混沌特征数的方法。首先利用C C方法选取相空间重构参数即时间延迟〖WTBX〗τ和嵌入维数m〖WTBZ〗,在此基础上进行相空间重构,采用G P关联积分法计算关联维数和Rosenstein小数据量法计算最大Lypanuov指数。结果表明鄱阳湖入湖外洲站、李家渡站和渡峰坑站的月径流序列的饱和关联维数非整数,同时最大Lyapunov指数也为正数,这充分说明鄱阳湖入湖外洲站、李家渡站和渡峰坑站的月径流序列均具有明显的混沌特征。而且通过最大Lyapunov指数和关联维数的计算表明鄱阳湖入湖的外洲站月径流复杂程度最大,混沌特性最强,对初值的敏感性最强,李家渡站次之,渡峰坑站最小     

SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION SYSTEMS: A CONSISTENT ESTIMATOR FOR UNKNOWN PARAMETERS IN CONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents criteria for establishing the identification status of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow. Three linear estimation methods (ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, and three-stage least squares) and one nonlinear method (maximum likelihood) are used to estimate the matrices of parameters embedded in the partial differential equation characterizing confined flow. Computational experience indicates several advantages of maximum likelihood over the linear methods.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR TPLN DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive an alternative method for parameter estimation for the three parameter lognormal (TPLN) distribution. Six sets of annual peak discharge data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments and maximum likelihood estimation.     

长江靖江段刀鲚捕捞量的时间变化及相关环境因子分析

江苏靖江段位于长江近口段,是长江刀鲚渔汛最集中的水域。调查了靖江段2008、2009、2012~2015年6个渔汛期的捕捞数据,采用广义可加模型(GAM模型)分析了刀鲚捕捞量与靖江段表层水温、潮差、气压、降水量、浑浊度、CODMn等环境因子之间的相关性。调查显示,靖江段每年发放刀鲚专项渔业捕捞证84~95本,平均年作业天数28~43 d,2012~2015年的作业天数比2008~2009年明显下降。6个渔汛期刀鲚的年捕捞量变幅为3.71~17.38万尾和3.61~18.26 t,除2013年外,年捕捞量总体上仍呈下降趋势。采用GAM模型对10艘持证渔船的刀鲚日捕捞量与环境因子之间的相关性分析显示,日捕捞量随水温的升高而递增,汛期78.8%的产量在15~23.2℃水温范围获得。而当水温低于10℃时,空网率上升,仅获得5.7%的汛期产量。表明当水温不足10℃时,刀鲚可暂时停止其生殖洄游过程。分析还显示,69.1%的汛期产量在2.0 m以上的大潮差期获得,表明潮汐亦是影响刀鲚日捕捞量的重要因子。低浊度及气压、降水量、CODMn等对刀鲚的日捕捞量无显著性影响,但当浊度大于100 NTU时,日捕捞量迅速降低。可见,水温、潮差和高浑浊度是影响长江靖江段汛期刀鲚捕捞量的关键环境因子。     

河流水质灾害的Thomas修正式的稳态分析和临界氧亏计算

水质数学模型是水中污染灾害演化特征的高度概括,也是制定水资源保护规划的基本工具．本文根据对恒定流动的Thomas模型方程组的分析,确定水质灾害的判别标准,预测氧亏的最大值．     

SALMONID SMOLT SURVIVAL RELATIVE TO TURBINE EFFICIENCY AND ENTRAINMENT DEPTH IN HYDROELECTRIC POWER GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: The hypotheses that fish survival probabilities may be lower (1) at less than peak operating turbine efficiency; (2) at deeper entrainment depth; and (3) with the deployment of extended‐length intake guidance screens, are not supported by results on yearling chinook salmon smolts (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at Lower Granite Dam, Snake River, Washington. Estimated 96 h survival probabilities for the six test conditions ranged from 0.937 to 0.972, with the highest survival at turbine operating towards the lower end of its efficiency. A blanket recommendation to operate all Kaplan type turbines within ± 1 percent of their peak efficiency appears too restrictive. Cavitation mode survival (0.946) was comparable to that at peak operating efficiency mode (0.937), as was the survival between upper (0.947) and mid depths (0.937). Survival differed only slightly among three turbine intake bays at the same depth (0.937 to 0.954), most likely due to differential flow distribution. Extended‐length intake fish guidance screens did not reduce survival. However, the sources of injury somewhat differed with depth; probable pressure and shear‐related injuries were common on fish entrained at mid‐depth, and mechanically‐induced injuries were common at upper depth. Operating conditions that reduce turbulence within the turbine environment may enhance fish survival; however, controlled experiments that integrate turbine flow physics and geometry and the path entrained fish traverse are needed to develop specific guidance to further enhance fish passage survival.     

Human use and conservation planning in Alpine areas of Northwestern Yunnan,China

Alpine areas in northwestern Yunnan, China possess globally significant levels of biodiversity and are important locally for livelihood activities such as livestock grazing and medicinal plant collection. Because local land use has important impacts on alpine conditions and communities have significant capacity to manage alpine resources, we emphasized local collaboration during the initial stages of conservation planning. Our collaboration with local communities investigated how livelihood strategies affect the condition of alpine resources in northwestern Yunnan and how future conservation efforts can be compatible with local livelihoods. We sampled three livestock herding sites, each within a different alpine sub-region, using open-ended interviews and maximum variation sampling. According to interviewees, livestock grazing within the alpine zone currently does not appear to be negatively impacting the availability of forage. Medicinal plant collection, however, is showing unsustainable trends. Tourism is as yet a nascent industry, but is seen as having great potential by those interviewed. It is clear that with increases in population, access to regional markets, and tourism, northwestern Yunnan’s rich alpine resources will require careful management. In addition to the data collected, we found that the methodology used may be widely applicable to organizations with limited resources that wish to engage local communities during the formative stages of regional-level conservation planning.     

松花湖铜绿微囊藻无菌株的分离及其生长特征

用毛细滴管洗净法从松花湖分离纯化出铜绿微囊藻(Microcystisaeruginosa)的单藻株和无菌株.在照度2000lx、温度30℃、光暗比1212条件下振荡培养,单藻株和无菌株的最大比增长率分别为0.79d^-1和0.72d^-1;最大现存量分别为119.6mg/L和45.6mg/L.通过比较培养过程中群体粒径的变化和用超声波打碎微囊藻群体的试验表明,铜绿微囊藻附生细菌[主要为黄杆菌属(Flavobacteriumsp.)和假单胞菌属(Pseudomonassp.)]的存在,使微囊藻的群体粒径减小,延长铜绿微囊藻对数生长期和增加最大现存量.