某工业园区VOCs臭氧生成潜势及优控物种

臭氧(O3)污染日趋严重,控制光化学反应前体物之一的挥发性有机污染物(volatile organic compounds,VOCs)对减少臭氧生成有重要意义.为研究天津某工业园区VOCs臭氧生成潜势,采集了园区6个代表企业厂界气体样品,使用质子转移反应飞行时间质谱仪(PTR-TOF-MS)对VOCs进行了定量分析,估算了各企业臭氧生成潜势,运用VOCs/NO_x研究了臭氧生成控制敏感性因素,并在熵值法基础上筛选出了减少臭氧生成优先控制VOCs物种.结果表明,通过PEC法估算臭氧生成F企业最高为0.423 3 mg·m~(-3),MIR法估算结果 C企业最高为1.573 3 mg·m~(-3);PEC法估算结果与臭氧浓度更接近,适用于园区对臭氧生成的估算;VOCs和NOx均为工业园区臭氧生成敏感性因素,需同时控制;园区内VOCs物种臭氧生成贡献大小为烷烃烯炔烃醇类芳香烃,优先控制物种为正庚烷及其同分异构体、正壬烷、正辛烷及其同分异构体、正十一烷、戊烷、正癸烷、甲醇.     

基于小波变换与传统时间序列模型的臭氧浓度多步预测

采用最大重叠小波分解与重构方法,将影响O3小时浓度的不同时间尺度的物化过程分离出来,以提高序列的光滑性.同时,选择合适的传统时间序列模型(如ARIMA模型等)来描述不同过程的序列特征,并分别拟合预报.最后,在建模中引入24 h季节项,以实现提前24 h-次性预测未来1d的O3逐时浓度.结果表明,预报的平均相对误差为12.92％,平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别为10.04 μ.g·m-3和13.98μg·m-3,预报值与实测值的相关系数和匹配指数分别为0.96和0.98.随着预测期的延长,预报误差仍处于可接受范围内.该方法同样适用于每日最大O3小时浓度预报,研究结果为发布天气预报式的空气质量预报提供了新思路,便于公众规划出行并减少大气污染暴露.     

LY12CZ铝合金在EXCO溶液中的腐蚀行为研究

研究了35℃条件下LY12CZ铝合金在质量分数为20％的EXCO溶液中的腐蚀行为。利用体视显微镜测量了试样的最大腐蚀深度。实验中发现平行试样之间的最大腐蚀深度具有分散性．经检验确定其分布规律符合正态分布。实验数据表明LY12CZ铝合金在质量分数为20％的EXCO溶液中的腐蚀过程可分为3个阶段：最初的14h内符合S型曲线规律．为点蚀的萌生及发展阶段：随后发展为剥蚀阶段．其中14～120h呈线性规律,120h后呈二项式规律发展至实验结束。     

基于最佳范化能力的BP网络隐节点数反比关系式的环境预测模型

网络结构和样本集复杂性是影响BP网络泛化能力的两个最重要因素.对一个给定的训练样本集,为了构造一个与样本集复杂性相匹配的网络结构,使BP网络具有最佳泛化能力,在分析BP网络的泛化能力(用检测误差E2表示)与网络结构和样本集复杂性之间关系的基础上,建立了含参数的BP网络检测误差E2与网络隐节点数H、样本的因子数n、样本数...     

西辽河不同粒级沉积物的氨氮吸附-解吸特征

为估算辽河吸附态氨氮入海通量,采用平衡吸附-解吸法研究了西辽河不同粒级沉积物对氨氮的吸附-解吸特征. 结果表明:不同粒级沉积物对氨氮的吸附-解吸特征均符合Langmuir和Freundlich吸附-解吸等温式;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物的氨氮饱和吸附量较大,分别为3 643.82和2 693.71 mg/kg,相当于粗砂的8.04和5.94倍;西辽河冲泻质泥沙黏粒和粉粒所携载的吸附态氨氮的入海通量分别为170.10和164.52 mg/kg. 占沉积物氨氮吸附总量的14.99%;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物的氨氮解吸比例较小,分别为30.66%和42.04%,入海后可分别为上覆水提供氨氮52.15和69.16 mg/kg;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物所吸附的氨氮是氮素循环的重要组成部分;黏粒和粉粒级沉积物的腐殖质含量远远高于粗沙,在其所形成的团聚体结构中存在的孔隙填充方式——氨氮吸附是导致黏粒和粉粒级沉积物饱和吸附量较大、解吸比例较低的根本原因.      

加载减速排放测试数据统计分析方法的改进研究

加载减速法（LugDown）测量被测车辆处于100％、90％和80％VelMaxHP三个速度工况下的排气光吸收系数（k）和100％VelMaxHP速度工况下的最大轮边功率值（MaxHP）,数据内涵增强,统计分析较为复杂。为解决此问题,本文根据LugDown法排气控制指标与测量数据特点,提出了排放最大值均值和功率比值统计分析方法,并将其用于广州市柴油车LugDown法排气检测数据的分析,结果令人满意。     

通用浓度加和模型预测有机磷与三嗪农药对绿藻的联合毒性

基于微板藻毒性试验测定5个有机磷农药与4个三嗪类农药的单个及联合毒性.根据半数效应浓度(EC50),对斜生栅藻96h生长抑制的毒性大小顺序为:西草净>阿特拉津>扑灭通>苯嗪草酮>草甘膦>敌敌畏>磷胺>乙酰甲胺磷>甲胺磷.这表明直接干扰光合作用电子传输的三嗪除草剂的藻毒性明显大于有机磷农药.以通用浓度加和作为参考模型,三嗪类农药按EC50和EC10(10%效应浓度)浓度比的混合物对斜生栅藻呈现加和毒性.有机磷农药按EC50和EC10浓度比的混合物在低浓度呈现加和毒性,在高浓度呈现协同毒性.有机磷与三嗪类农药按EC50和EC10浓度比的混合物在低浓度为加和毒性,在高浓度为协同毒性.     

基于神经网络的碳排放预测及影响因素分析

基于新疆1995—2014年农业生产碳排放源,建立碳排放关系数据库。应用广义神经网络(generalized regression neural network,GRNN)构建了排放量预测模型,结合平均影响值(mean impact value,MIV)方法对碳排放影响因素进行量化。结果表明:1)GRNN模型预测碳排放的平均绝对百分误差和拟合优度分别为2.7860%和0.8720;2)新疆人口、人均GDP、农业贡献值、农机总动力和农户固定资产投资等因素对农业生产碳排放的影响程度分别为0.6210、0.2377、0.3698、0.8500和0.1000。该成果可为新疆碳排放总量分析和影响因素量化方面提供参考。     

Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore

Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city–state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213–414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313–534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30–38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.     

STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON THE RANDOMNESS OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: Annual maximum daily rainfall data from nine stations throughout the southern slopes of the Eastern Italian Alps with record length of 67–68 years have been analyzed with the aim of verifying if their internal structure justifies the assumption of independence and identical distribution, or the “White noise hypothesis.” The approach is to consider the hypothesis H₀ of white noise as the intersection of several sub-hypotheses, each concerning one of the characteristics of a white noise process. To this end the nine series were subjected to various statistical tests regarding randomness, independence, change-points, and predictability. The results are examined first individually and then globally. They indicate that in eight of the nine considered time series the “white noise hypothesis” was rejected.