海上溢油事故双目标应急物资调度模型

为满足海上溢油事故发生后的应急物资需求,最大程度减少事故带来的损失,根据海上溢油应急物资调度的特点,构建基于应急物资需求量和调度时间模糊不确定下应急成本最小和延误时间最少的双目标调度模型。引入三角模糊函数描述应急物资调度中物资需求量和调度时间的不确定性,构建模糊环境下溢油事故点对应急物资应急成本最小和应急延误时间最少的双目标模型,利用遗传算法求解,并通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明,三角模糊数能很好地表征调度中物资需求量和时间的不确定性及模糊属性,确定的调度方案能为海上溢油事故发生时应急物资调度提供决策依据。     

安全联锁设备SIL验证中的参数估计偏差分析

为提高安全联锁系统(SIS)不可用度计算的准确性,减少SIL验证的不确定性偏差,研究参数估计置信度分别为70％和90％时功能安全标准IEC61508的恒定失效率算法与实际非恒定失效率(威布尔分布)算法结果的偏差.结果表明:在70％置信度时,采用指数分布算法计算PFDavg,比威布尔分布算法的计算结果偏大,2者的相对偏差...     

区域水资源开发利用程度综合评价的GPPIM

水资源开发利用程度评价是一个由多指标组成的复杂巨系统,其难点是如何合理地建立评价该系统的数学模型。当前的评价模型随着评价内容的不同而变化,精度较难控制。为解决单项水资源开发利用程度评价指标评价结果的不相容问题,提高水资源开发利用程度综合评价各层次的分辩力和评价模型的精度,论文采用大样本数据,利用投影寻踪、遗传算法、插值型曲线和水资源开发利用程度评价标准,为水资源开发利用程度综合评价建立了一种新的数学模型---遗传投影寻踪插值模型(GPPIM)。实例研究表明,GPPIM建模方法直观、可靠、精度高,既有较强的分类功能,又有较好的排序功能,可广泛应用于各种水资源问题的综合评价。     

Population genetic structure of Pinus tabulaeformis in Shanxi Plateau, China

Chinese pine, Pinus tabulaeformis Carr., a species that ranges broadly across northeastern to southwestern China, plays a vital role in the maintenance of the structure and function of these ecosystems. In this study, we examined the genetic diversity of five widespread populations in Shanxi Plateau, the distribution center of Chinese pine, using 15 random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) primers and five inter simple sequence repeat (ISSR) primers in 140 individual tree samples. Similar genetic differentiation results were obtained from the data of RAPD and ISSR. Based on the two sets of data, Nei’s genetic diversity was 0.2842 and 0.3078 and Shannon’s indices of diversity were 0.4332 and 0.4468. Genetic diversity at the species level was found high relative to that for other genera of Pinaceae. The greatest diversity was observed in the Lingkong Mountain population (0.3860), while the lowest was recorded in the Luya Mountain population (0.3352), most likely as a result of natural adaptation and anthropogenic perturbation. The relative magnitude of differentiation among populations (G _ST) was 0.1491 and 0.1356, respectively, implying that most genetic variation was within the populations (∼0.8509), rather than among populations. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2008, No. 1, pp. 36–42. The article was translated by the authors.     

Integrating Bioassessment and Ecological Risk Assessment: An Approach to Developing Numerical Water-Quality Criteria

Bioassessment is used worldwide to monitor aquatic health but is infrequently used with risk-assessment objectives, such as supporting the development of defensible, numerical water-quality criteria. To this end, we present a generalized approach for detecting potential ecological thresholds using assemblage-level attributes and a multimetric index (Index of Biological Integrity—IBI) as endpoints in response to numerical changes in water quality. To illustrate the approach, we used existing macroinvertebrate and surface-water total phosphorus (TP) datasets from an observed P gradient and a P-dosing experiment in wetlands of the south Florida coastal plain nutrient ecoregion. Ten assemblage attributes were identified as potential metrics using the observational data, and five were validated in the experiment. These five core metrics were subjected individually and as an aggregated Nutrient–IBI to nonparametric changepoint analysis (nCPA) to estimate cumulative probabilities of a threshold response to TP. Threshold responses were evident for all metrics and the IBI, and were repeatable through time. Results from the observed gradient indicated that a threshold was 50% probable between 12.6 and 19.4 g/L TP for individual metrics and 14.8 g/L TP for the IBI. Results from the P-dosing experiment revealed 50% probability of a response between 11.2 and 13.0 g/L TP for the metrics and 12.3 g/L TP for the IBI. Uncertainty analysis indicated a low (typically 5%) probability that an IBI threshold occurred at 10 g/L TP, while there was 95% certainty that the threshold was 17 g/L TP. The weight-of-evidence produced from these analyses implies that a TP concentration > 12–15 g/L is likely to cause degradation of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure and function, a reflection of biological integrity, in the study area. This finding may assist in the development of a numerical water-quality criterion for TP in this ecoregion, and illustrates the utility of bioassessment to environmental decision-making.     

Antenatal gene tests in low-risk pregnancies: molecular screening for aspartylglucosaminuria (AGU) and infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (INCL) in Finland

Approximately one in five subjects in Finland carries some gene defect associated with 30 diseases belonging to the Finnish disease heritage, and about one in 500 children born is affected. Almost all carriers, women and men, are unaware of their condition. Recent advances in molecular medicine have offered the possibility of population-based carrier screening for recessive disorders. We studied acceptance and attitudes to antenatal screening for aspartylglucosaminuria (AGU) and infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (INCL). From January 1995 until December 1996 carrier tests were offered at Kuopio City Health Center, free of charge to all pregnant women attending maternity care units. Women found to be carriers of AGU (n=47) or INCL (n=14) underwent detailed genetic counseling, and their male partners were also offered the test. If both partners appeared to be carriers we offered prenatal testing (n=1). No affected fetuses were detected. Attitudes towards the gene test were elicited by means of a questionnaire. Altogether 87% of pregnant women elected to undertake the gene tests. Antenatal screening for gene defects was feasible and well accepted, and it provided an effective way to find carriers of genetic diseases and to incorporate prenatal testing into this process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT: EFFECTS OF BIOENGINEERED ORGANISMS1

ABSTRACT: The introduction of genetically altered microorganisms into natural ecosystems presents fundamentally new problems in risk assessment and ecological effect evaluation. Novel microorganisms, produced by any of several new methods, have the ability to survive and reproduce in the environment. Since most of these organisms are bacteria, they have the potential to interfere with natural processes, displace natural populations, infect new hosts, move between ecosystems, and cause far-reaching ecological disturbanes. This paper reviews currently available methods in ecological research that might be used in evaluating the ecological effects of releasing genetically altered microorganisms. Both structural and functional evaluations are critically reviewed. Microcosm, mesocosm, and field tests should provide valuable predictions concerning the potential ecological impact of genetically altered organisms. Ecosystem assessments will also be useful in post-release studies such as those currently used to evaluate toxic impacts. The present problem does not require the development of new testing methods but rather the creation of adequate predictive models (both conceptual and systems-based) to predict the potential for adverse effect of genetically altered organisms.     

WASTE INJECTION: TESTING FOR MECHANICAL INTEGRITY1

ABSTRACT: Results of computer calculations are presented which predict the pressure response of a closed casing annulus of an injection well to temperature and pressure variations of the injected waste stream. For example, a 3000 ft. disposal well receiving fluid at 100d̀F might cause an increase in annular pressure of some 500 psi. Graphs summarizing these results are included. The results will be of interest to waste injection well operators, inasmuch as they are required to monitor annulus pressure to prove mechanical integrity of their injection wells.     

分子遗传技术与生物遗传多样性研究

各种分子遗传技术为不同生物种类间进行直接比较和分子水平的遗传多样性的度量、研究提供了新的途径。本文讨论了此类分子水平研究所取得的一些新的进展，并指出了有关分子工具应用于生物多样性研究中存在的一些问题。     

岩生植物金发草遗传多样性的ISSR和AFLP比较研究

禾本科岩生植物金发草〔Pogonatherum paniceum(Lam.)Hack.〕具有开发为新型国产草坪草种的潜力.用IS-SR与AFLP分子标记,分析了四川、重庆、云南及广西等地22个金发草种群的遗传多样性.用14个ISSR引物、10对AFLP引物分别扩增出239、485条谱带,多态位点百分率分别为94.98%、90.93%.两种标记均揭示出金发草种群具有丰富的遗传多样水平.由于标记原理不同,两种标记的结果呈现出微小的差别.相对而言,基于ISSR标记分析的遗传多样性参数高于AFLP标记得到的遗传多样性参数,这可能是由于金发草种群间存在着大量的微卫星变异所致.两种标记基于Nei遗传距离的聚类分析结果存在着一定的差异,但用Mantel测试对两种方法检测的遗传一致度进行相关性分析表明,它们之间存在着显著的相关性(r=0.3146,P=0.0150),用SPSS11.5软件进一步分析两种标记遗传一致度的相关性,Pearson相关系数为0.315(在0.01水平上),两种标记的聚类分析都揭示出金发草的遗传变异呈现出一定的地域分布规律.ISSR标记与AFLP标记均能应用于金发草种群的遗传多样性研究.图1表2参16