论文应用第5次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models,GCMs)和3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下的预估结果,分析了淮河中上游地区未来的气候变化特征。进一步基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型定量预估了气候变化对该区域径流量的影响,并量化了预估结果的不确定性。结果表明:SWAT模型在淮河中上游对月径流量具有较好的模拟能力。在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下,淮河中上游年平均气温分别较基准期(1986—2005年)增加1.1℃和1.7℃;年降水量较基准期分别相应增加4%和7%;基于SWAT模型预估的年径流量较基准期分别增加5%和8%。未来气候变化不会改变月径流分布特征,年内径流仍集中在盛夏和初秋(6—9月)。预估的月丰水流量明显增加,尤其当全球增温达到2.0℃后,出现洪涝的风险明显增大。未来降水量和径流量预估都存在较大的不确定性,不确定性主要来源于GCMs,在全球增温2.0℃下预估的不确定性更大。 相似文献
Abstract: Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds. 相似文献
In this study, the current situation of five types of toxic organics and endocrine disrupters in the sediments of rivers around Beijing, i.e., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), phthalic acid esters (PAEs), organic chlorinated pesticides (OCPs), estrogens (Es), and bisphenol A (BPA), which included 56 contaminants, was analyzed and compared with that registered by the historical literatures. The ecological risks were also assessed. The total concentration of PAHs, PAEs, OCPs, Es, and BPA ranged from 232.5 ng·g–1 to 5429.7 ng·g–1, 2047.2 ng·g–1 to 18051.5 ng·g–1, 4.5 ng·g–1 to 11.7 ng·g–1, 18.1 ng·g–1 to 105.2 ng·g–1, and 36.3 ng·g–1 to 69.6 ng·g–1, respectively. Among these five types of organic compounds, the concentration levels of PAHs and OCPs have decreased significantly in the last ten years, while those of PAEs and Es had an upward trend compared with the previous studies. BPA still remained at a moderately high level, as it was ten years ago. The risks of the PAEs in all of the sample sites, and fluoranthene, benzo[a]anthrene, and benzo[a]pyrene in the Wenyu River sediment, were relatively high. These results supplemented the database of toxic organics’ concentration levels in the sediments of Beijing rivers.
