Gradient analysis of the chrogenetic structure of lowland and highland scotch pine populations

Gradients of genetic distances (GGDs) between 26 adjacent cenopopulations of Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along the transects through the distinct landscape-ecotopic isolation borders were analyzed graphically. The results made it possible to reveal and quantitatively estimate gradients and borders of gene-pool structural patterns in populations of this species in the central part of Northern Eurasia. In lowland areas, the most distinct borders were found between pine populations growing on dry lands and bogs (Pineta sphagnosa) in the forest zone of the Transural region, as well as between the Arakaragaiskii and Amankaragaiskii island pine forests in the steppe zone (Northern Turgai). In highland areas (the Urals and the Carpathians), the greatest GGDs were observed between low-mountain (about 600 m above sea level) and middle-mountain (850–900 m) populations. Analysis of GGDs is a promising gene-geographic method for determining population borders and studying the chorogenetic structure of species.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

北斗导航终端设备可靠性加速试验与快速评价技术研究

针对北斗导航终端设备开展传统可靠性试验时间长、成本高,难以实现在短期内完成高可靠性指标考核的现状,借鉴加速试验建模技术和相关标准的加速模型参数,进行北斗导航整机可靠性加速建模,设计加速试验剖面和方案,预先评估出北斗导航终端设备的加速因子,通过一组样品即可完成北斗导航的加速试验,实现对北斗导航终端设备高可靠性指标的快速评估。     

Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

Benchmarking Optical/Thermal Satellite Imagery for Estimating Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Decision Support Tools

Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.     

Modeling urban solar energy with high spatiotemporal resolution: A case study in Toronto,Canada

This research presents a method to determine the maximum potential for the capturing of solar radiation on the rooftop of buildings in an urban environment. This involves the modeling of solar energy potential and comparison to historical building energy demand profiles through the use of 3-D solar simulation software tools and geographic information systems (GIS). The objective is to accurately identify the amount of surface area that is suitable for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and to estimate the hourly PV electricity generation potential of existing building rooftops in an urban environment. This study demonstrates a viable approach for modeling urban solar energy and offers valuable information for electricity distributors, policy makers, and urban energy planners to facilitate the substantial design of a green built environment. The developed methodology is comprised of three main sections: (1) determination of suitable rooftop area, (2) determination of the amount of incident solar radiation available per rooftop, and (3) estimation of hourly solar PV electricity generation potential. A case study was performed using this method for Ryerson University, located in Toronto, Canada. It was found that solar PV could supply up to 19% of the study area’s electricity demands during peak consumption hours. The potential benefits of solar PV was also estimated based upon hourly greenhouse gas emission intensity factors as well as Time-of-Use (TOU) savings through the Ontario Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program, which allows for better representation of the positive impacts of solar technologies.     

宁夏地区光伏发电环境效益分析及建模

在阐述了宁夏地区光伏发电发展的优势及发展现状的基础上,分析了光伏发电开发利用对宁夏生态环境产生的积极和消极的影响,并为降低消极影响提出了相应的对策;为了定量直观的评估光伏发电积极影响和消极影响所产生的环境效益,分别建立了节能减排、防风固沙和土地增值、景观效应、植被恢复费用、噪声污染超标罚款、光污染费用等价值模型及光伏发电总的生态环境效益价值模型;最后以中电投宁夏能源铝中卫香山光伏电站为例进行计算验证,结果表明模型的合理性和准确性,同时光伏电站的节能减排效益显著。相对于传统的火力发电,表现了优越的环境效益。     

硝化悬浮填料塔中氨氧化细菌群落稳定性特征分析

利用PCR-DGGE分析技术,对于化学生物絮凝处理工艺中悬浮填料塔的氨氧化细菌(AOB)群落进行了研究。主要考察了曝气强度和水力停留时间2个运行参数调整的情况下,系统AOB群落结构的变化。生物膜样品直接取自硝化填料塔,多维尺度(MDS)方法用于DGGE电泳图谱的分析,分析结果以二维图形向量的方式显示,结果表明,曝气强度和水力停留时间均对AOB群落有一定的影响,主要的AOB种类在运行过程中基本不变,系统对于运行条件具有良好的稳定性。     

An application of a modified theory of planned behavior model to investigate adolescents’ job safety knowledge,norms, attitude and intention to enact workplace safety and health skills

Introduction: For many reasons, including a lack of adequate safety training and education, U.S. adolescents experience a higher rate of job-related injury compared to adult workers. Widely used social-psychological theories in public health research and practice, such as the theory of planned behavior, may provide guidance for developing and evaluating school-based interventions to prepare adolescents for workplace hazards and risks. Method: Using a structural equation modeling approach, the current study explores whether a modified theory of planned behavior model provides insight on 1,748 eighth graders’ occupational safety and health (OSH) attitude, subjective norm, self-efficacy and behavioral intention, before and after receiving instruction on a free, national young worker safety and health curriculum. Reliability estimates for the measures were produced and direct and indirect associations between knowledge and other model constructs assessed. Results: Overall, the findings align with the theory of planned behavior. The structural equation model adequately fit the data; most path coefficients are statistically significant and knowledge has indirect effects on behavioral intention. Confirmatory factor analyses suggest that the knowledge, attitude, self-efficacy, and behavioral intention measures each reflect a unique dimension (reliability estimates ≥0.86), while the subjective norm measure did not perform adequately. Conclusion: The findings presented provide support for using behavioral theory (specifically a modified theory of planned behavior) to investigate adolescents’ knowledge, perceptions, and behavioral intention to engage in safe and healthful activities at work, an understanding of which may contribute to reducing the downstream burden of injury on this vulnerable population—the future workforce. Practical application: Health behavior theories, commonly used in the social and behavioral sciences, have utility and provide guidance for developing and evaluating OSH interventions, including those aimed at preventing injuries and promoting the health and safety of adolescent workers in the U.S., who are injured at higher rates than are adults.     

System safety assessment using safety entropy

Safety assessment has a primary role in hazardous operations. Most studies on safety assessment focus on risk and accident modeling, in which safety is absent. These top-down methods are highly dependent on the occurred accidents to establish accidental scenarios, which may make the assessment approach lagging behind the evolving modern systems. Moreover, this “special to general” logic is scientifically suspect in safety assessment. There is a call for the development of safety assessment methods in the presence of system safety to complement risk-focused safety analysis. These methods should provide a framework based on a bottom-up approach to examine system safety from the operational perspective. This paper has attempted to provide a potential solution. In particular, a novel concept of safety entropy is proposed to integrate with The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which is used to form the qualitative understanding of a system. A formula consisted of safety entropy, functional conformability, and system complexity has been established to determine the spontaneity of the safety state-changing process. The proposed method is applied to the safety assessment of a propane feed-control system. The results show the applicability of the method. Nevertheless, the model still needs to be further improved to fulfill better support for safety-related decision problems.