城市河段污染控制灰色动态规划的应用

本文探讨了含灰数的城市河段污染控制的灰色动态规划的理论与方法。通过分析城市河段污染控制系统的广义不确定性，将灰数表征这些不确定性，建立了描述城市河段水污染控制的灰色动态规划中广义不确定性的灰数运算、灰数大小的比较及灰动态规划的初步理论和求解方法，通过对淮河蚌埠河段有机污染控制实例研究，说明了水污染控制灰色动态规划问题研究意义和求解方法的实用性。     

Effects of soil properties on food web accumulation of heavy metals to the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus)

Effects of soil properties on the accumulation of metals to wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) were evaluated at two sites with different pH and organic matter content of the soil. pH and organic matter content significantly affected accumulation of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in earthworms and vegetation. For Cd, Cu and Zn these effects propagated through the food web to the wood mouse. Soil-to-kidney ratios differed between sites: Cd: 0.15 versus 3.52, Cu: 0.37 versus 1.30 and Zn: 0.33-0.83. This was confirmed in model calculations for Cd and Zn. Results indicate that total soil concentrations may be unsuitable indicators for risks that metals pose to wildlife. Furthermore, environmental managers may, unintentionally, change soil properties while taking specific environmental measures. In this way they may affect risks of metals to wildlife, even without changes in total soil concentrations.     

The current state of knowledge of ecosystems and ecosystem services in Russia: A status report

This paper focusses on a conceptual overview of ways to address a comprehensive analysis of ecosystem services (ES) in a country as large and heterogeneous as Russia. As a first step, a methodology for assessing the services for the federal subjects of Russia was chosen, i.e., its constituent provinces and similar entities, in physical terms. Russia harbors a great diversity of natural conditions and ecosystems which are suppliers of ES, and likewise a variety of the socio-economic conditions that shape the demand for these services and their consumption. The methodological approach described permits several important tasks to be addressed: the evaluation of the degree of satisfaction of people’s needs for ES, the identification of ecological donor and acceptor regions, and zoning of the country’s territory for ES assessment. The next step is to prepare a prototype of a National Report on ES in Russia, for which we are presenting the planned structure.     

沼泽湿地水生无脊椎动物完整性指数构建与健康评价

依据2017年5、7、9月对三江平原19处沼泽湿地(参照湿地6处,受损湿地13处)的水生无脊椎动物采样结果,应用生物完整性理论和方法,构建水生无脊椎动物完整性指数,评价三江平原沼泽湿地健康状况。通过对27个候选指标的分布范围、判别能力和相关性分析,筛选出总分类单元数、扁卷螺科百分比、龙虱科百分比、刮食者百分比4个指标构成水生无脊椎动物完整性指数核心指标。采用比值法计算各指标参数值,将各参数值加和得到水生无脊椎动物完整性指数值。根据参照湿地水生无脊椎动物完整性指数值的25%分位数值确定评价标准,对小于25%分位数的值进行三等分,确定三江平原沼泽湿地健康评价标准:≥2.58,无干扰;1.72～2.58,轻度干扰;0.86～1.72,中度干扰;0～0.86,重度干扰。结果表明:所调查的三江平原沼泽湿地有78.95%受到不同程度的干扰(其中47.37%受到了中重度干扰),21.05%属于无干扰。     

利用底栖动物研究京杭运河徐州段的水质变化

通过分析京杭运河徐州段4个断面底栖动物的种类、密度，及生物多样性指数的变化来研究京杭运河徐州段水质的变化趋势。     

高速公路运营安全性评价

系统研究国内外道路运营安全评价先进技术,认为各种安全评价方法有其优缺点,单一方法使用时,难以得到全面、可靠的评价结果。在此基础上,结合我国高速公路运营状况,提出了运用速度协调性分析、事故调查与分析、设计符合性以及运营安全评价清单进行评价的高速公路运营综合安全评价方法。该方法能最大程度地发现事故隐患、预防事故的发生或减轻事故的严重程度。并运用该方法对某改建高速公路进行了运营安全评价,指出了该拟改建高速公路两处事故多发路段和3方面的安全隐患,证实了综合安全评价方法的有效性。     

健康风险评估方法在中国重金属污染中的应用及暴露评估模型的研究进展

经济的快速发展导致中国环境质量日趋恶化.随着健康意识的增强,人们越来越重视污染物暴露人群的健康风险评估.与其他污染物相比,重金属污染区域广,重金属暴露人群多且集中.为了研究重金属暴露条件下人群的健康风险,USEPA 模型、统计模型、地理信息系统、可给性研究的方法已被中国不同学者应用.暴露评估模型作为污染物暴露人群健康风险评估的主要环节,国外的研究已经比较成熟,但相关研究在中国还处于空白阶段.对中国近年来在城市表层土壤（灰尘）、矿区土壤、膳食、地下水和饮用水、大气颗粒物进行重金属风险评估中应用的健康风险评估方法,进行了归纳和评述,并对欧美常用暴露评估模型：环境暴露评估模型、膳食暴露评估模型进行了介绍.中国健康风险评估工作起步晚,在评估的各环节均存在很大缺陷.随着新技术的发展以及人群对环境健康风险认识的深化,健康风险评估将成为中国热门研究领域之一.污染的环境行为、剂量一效应关系、模型、风险信息等方面,将是未来中国健康风险评估研究的重点.     

灰色理论在城市生活垃圾量预测中的应用分析

依据武汉市1993～2002年的垃圾清运量数据,运用灰色系统的预测方法,建立了GM(1,1)模型,预测武汉市到2010年垃圾产生量的水平。根据关联度的大小对影响垃圾产生量e的主要因素进行排序,并分析影响垃圾产量的三大主要因素,对于加强垃圾管理和垃圾处理设施的规划具有现实意义。     

基于成本效益评估的县域自然保护地优化整合方案比较研究——以福建省泰宁县为例

在国家公园体制改革背景下,“建立以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系”对我国自然保护地优化整合提出了系列要求。福建省正在进行自然保护地优化整合,泰宁县是全省自然保护地交叉重叠最复杂的区域之一。以泰宁县为例,基于实地调研和专家意见,构建了三个优化整合的情景规划方案：（1）维持现状,不整合;（2）以泰宁国家地质公园为主体的整合;（3）以泰宁国家公园为主体的整合。基于对方案的成本效益比较,结果显示：方案3的存在和使用价值最高,成本持中;方案1的价值保护持中,成本最低;方案2价值最低,成本最高。研究为福建省县市尺度开展自然保护地优化整合提供思路和技术支持,亦为国内外自然保护地的边界优化提供参考。     

Rough Set Rule Induction for Suitability Assessment

The data that characterize an environmental system are a fundamental part of an environmental decision-support system. However, obtaining complete and consistent data sets for regional studies can be difficult. Data sets are often available only for small study areas within the region, whereas the data themselves contain uncertainty because of system complexity, differences in methodology, or data collection errors. This paper presents rough-set rule induction as one way to deal with data uncertainty while creating predictive if–then rules that generalize data values to the entire region. The approach is illustrated by determining the crop suitability of 14 crops for the agricultural soils of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. To implement this method, environmental and crop yield data were spatially related to individual soil units, forming the examples needed for the rule induction process. Next, four learning algorithms were defined by using different subsets of environmental attributes. ROSETTA, a software system for rough set analysis, was then used to generate rules using each algorithm. Cross-validation analysis showed that all crops had at least one algorithm with an accuracy rate greater than 68%. After selecting a preferred algorithm, the induced classifier was used to predict the crop suitability of each crop for the unclassified soils. The results suggest that rough set rule induction is a useful method for data generalization and suitability analysis.