基于组织因素的航空安全评价与分析

基于组织因素,从事故类型出发寻找影响航空安全的因素,并采用层次分析法进行评价,得出各个指标因素的权重,确定机组、天气、公司管理是事故链中居于前3位的因素.对机组提出采用"PACE进谏法"和建立人为失误数据库进行训练等建议;针对天气提出改进气象装备,尽早预测并采取措施等建议;对公司管理提出借鉴瑞典航空公司的事前评估、自愿报告免责制度以及安全旁听制度等建议.     

水环境中轮状病毒分子生物学检测技术

轮状病毒是重要的水介传播病原体,其感染性强,稳定性高,是水环境中危害严重的病原微生物,快速、准确地检测水环境中的轮状病毒对于控制疾病爆发和保障水质公共卫生安全极为重要.本文系统介绍了水环境中病毒浓集方法、核酸提取方法以及分子生物学检测方法,综述了水中轮状病毒浓集和分子生物学检测方法的研究进展,并探讨了分子生物学方法在检测水环境中轮状病毒存在的问题及发展趋势.     

人群密度对人群拥挤事故的影响

为了研究公共场所的人群密度与拥挤事故的发生概率.基于连续人群流动模型,从人群密度角度探讨了人群拥挤事故发生的机理.由于不同民族个体生理尺寸的差异,人群最大忍受密度不同,以此作为判断人群拥挤事故的标准,并结合我国情况提出我国人群最大忍受密度为9人/m2.最后模拟了某个拥挤事故场景,用该模型对其进行拥挤事故分析.结果表明,连续人群流动模型可以用于预测拥挤事故的发生,对预防和控制人群拥挤事故具有一定的指导意义.     

海岸带含水层咸淡水界面随潮汐波动的数值模拟

在分析、研究了滨海地带含水层和不透水层的水文地质特性及含水层内的咸淡水渗流运动特征的基础上,运用数学推理的手法,建立了一种较为简单适用的模拟海岸带含水层咸淡水界面和天然地下水面变动规律的二维数学模型,通过该模型的计算值与实验值的比较,证明该模型的计算结果与实验结果有着非常好的拟合度,即该模型能较客观地揭示海水入侵引起的咸淡水界面的变化规律.其后,运用该模型系统的探讨了含水层以下为非平坦的不透水层的滨海地带天然地下水面、咸淡水界面伴随着潮汐的波动而变化的规律.即伴随着潮汐的波动,一方面天然地下水面和咸淡水界面与潮汐具有相似的振动波形,波动的幅度随离海岸距离的增加而减小.在海岸附近咸淡水界面的振幅大于天然地下水面的振幅,而在离开海岸一定距离后天然地下水面的振幅超过咸淡水界面的振幅.总体上天然地下水面的振幅呈负指数衰减,而咸淡水界面的振幅几乎呈直线衰减(其衰减直线的倾角在135～150 °之间变动),且潮汐波动对天然地下水面影响的范围远大于其对咸淡水界面的影响;另一方面天然地下水面和咸淡水界面波动的振幅及它们之间的相位差的大小还与天然地下水面的水力坡度、含水层的渗透系数、有效孔隙率、不透水层形状及其变动的幅度有关,但它们之间的相位差的大小与潮汐波动的幅度无关,其振幅与潮汐的振幅成比例增减.当不透水层的形状一定时,不论天然地下水面的水力坡度、含水层的渗透系数、有效孔隙率及潮汐波动的幅度怎么变动,天然地下水面、咸淡水界面振动的相位差的变化趋势及其峰值出现的位置几乎不变,即不透水层的形状决定着天然地下水面、咸淡水界面振动的相位差的变化趋势,而其大小与含水层的水文地质参数(水力坡度、渗透系数及有效孔隙率)密切相关.此外,当天然地下水面和咸淡水界面的振动存在相位和振幅的较大差异时,可以断定含水层以下存在非平坦的不透水层,且这种差异越大,不透水层凸凹不平的程度越高.     

基于水资源合理配置的河流“双总量”控制研究——以河北省唐山市为例

河道的最小控制流量和最大纳污控制量（简称“双总量”）是维系河流健康的决定性因子。论文初步建立了基于水资源合理配置的河流“双总量”控制研究技术框架,并对唐山市月尺度的“双总量”控制指标进行核算。通过水资源合理配置,除个别枯水年份和连续枯水年份外,唐山市河道的最小控制流量均可得到满足。在基准年、2010年和2020年3个规划水平年,唐山市规划河流COD的最大纳污控制量分别为16357．57、12659．19和11572．50t／a;NH3-N的最大纳污控制量分别为907．80、660．27和580．09t／a。在统一水资源配置平台上制定的“双总量”控制指标,从根本上保障了竞争用水条件下河流生态需水,客观确立了规划水平年河道纳污能力的年内分配,并整体上提高了河流的最大纳污能力。     

Experimental investigation of the e ect of flow turbulence and sediment transport patterns on the adsorption of cadmium ions onto sediment particles

The mechanism of flow turbulence,sediment supply conditions,and sediment transport patterns that affect the adsorption of cadmiumions onto sediment particles in natural waters are experimentally simulated and studied both in batch reactors and in a turbulencesimulation tank.By changing the agitation conditions,the sediment transport in batch reactors can be categorized into bottom sediment-dominated sediment and suspended sediment-dominated sediment.It is found that the adsorption rate of bottom sediment is much lessthan that of suspended sediment,but the sediment transport pattern does not affect the final(equilibrium)concentration of dissolvedcadmium.This result indicates that the parameters of an adsorption isotherm are the same regardless of the sediment transport pattern.Inthe turbulence simulation tank,the turbulence is generated by harmonic grid-stirred motions,and the turbulence intensity is quantifiedin terms of eddy diffusivity,which is equal to 9.84F(F is the harmonic vibration frequency)and is comparable to natural surfacewater conditions.When the turbulence intensity of flow is low and sediment particles stay as bottom sediment,the adsorption rateis significantly low,and the adsorption quantity compared with that of suspended sediment is negligible in the 6 h duration of theexperiment.This result greatly favors the simplification of the numerical modeling of heavy metal pollutant transformation in naturalrivers.When the turbulence intensity is high but bottom sediment persists,the rate and extent of descent of the dissolved cadmiumconcentration in the tank noticeably increase,and the time that is required to reach adsorption equilibrium also increases considerablydue to the continuous exchange that occurs between the suspended sediment and the bottom sediment.A comparison of the results ofthe experiments in the batch reactor and those in the turbulence simulation tank reveals that the adsorption ability of the sediment,andin particular the adsorption rate,is greatly over-estimated in the batch reactor.     

Assessing field vulnerability to phosphorus loss in Beijing agricultural area using Revised Field Phosphorus Ranking Scheme

Guanting Reservoir,one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing,suffers from water eutrophication.It is mainly supplied by Guishui River.Thus,to investigate the reasons of phosphorus(P)loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region.In this study,a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme(PRS)was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS.In this new scheme,six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method.The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors,and,the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme.By the new scheme,thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as"low","medium"or"high"potential for P loss into the runoff.The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields.The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area.In the study area,controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss.Based on the results,it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of E Compared with P surplus by field measurements,the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields,and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.     

Examining adaptation and mitigation opportunities in the context of the integrated watershed management programme of the Government of India

India occupies 2.4% of the world’s geographical area with a large percentage of its land under agriculture. About 228 Million hectares (Mha) of its geographical area (nearly 69%) fall within the dryland (arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid) region. Of the total cultivated area of 142 Mha, major part of agriculture in the country is rainfed, extending to over 97 Mha and constituting nearly 68% of the net cultivated area, therefore making the agricultural sector vulnerable and exposed to the vagaries of weather conditions. Climate change adds to this dimension of stress. A strong need is felt for targeting programmes in these areas that address issues related to employing suitable soil and water conservation measures. In this context this paper seeks to examine the case for watershed development as an adaptive strategy. An examination of the possibility of fortifying the existing programme with a view to adapting to expected changes in climate in future is undertaken. Also, the possibility of watershed development integrating into a suitable mitigation strategy for the country is assessed.

水电站项目生态用水工程措施设计

电站引水发电以及堤坝式电站调峰运行将使坝下河段减(脱)水,调水、引水和供水等河道以外用水水利工程也将造成下游河道减(脱)水,水文将对水生生态、生产和生活用水、河道景观等产生一系列的不利影响.为维护河流的基本生态需求,水利水电工程必须下泻一定的生态流量,将其纳入工程水资源配置统筹考虑,使河流水电动能经济规模和水资源配备向"绿色"方向发展.本文以火溪河阴坪水电站为例,简述水电工程下泄生态流量确定的主要方法和下泄生态流量的工程措施设计.     

矿区可持续发展能力建设中生态环境管理研究

实现矿区的可持续发展有赖于发展模式的转变,转变传统的生态环境管理的基本观念,提出要完善和优化矿区的生态环境管理体制,建立矿区"环境-资源-经济"信息管理系统和生态环境综合分析决策模型,寓经济发展于环境管理中,寓环境管理建设于经济发展中,寓矿区发展于环境和经济的协调发展之中,推进矿区持续发展,为矿区环境保护和经济发展建立一个和谐的可持续发展模式.