环境医学：人类生存发展战略的大课题

文章用大量翔实数据，分析论证：人类由于淡化环境意识，坚持急功近利的片面发展观，造成整个地球环境质量正在全面下降和恶化，全球已有１／５的人口受到环境污染之害的基点上，作者提出了只有跳出以自我生存为中心的狭隘圈，确立发展环境医学为主体的预防医学战略，并提示要遵循中国古代强调的“天人合一”论概念和钱学森提出的“开放的巨系统方法论”在当代科技领域进行“天地生人巨系统的综合集成研究”，树立“天地与我并生，万物与我同运”的自然生态观，为创建“生物心理社会自然”为模式的全科新医学，这是实现２１世纪“人类健康工程”的开拓性目标。     

岷江干流（成都段）水体污染防治对策研究

本文通过对岷江干流（成都段）地表水和地下水的综合研究，分别提出了地表水污染防治对策和地下水水质防护措施，划分出了地表水防治不同时期的目标以及地下水开采管理目标。     

IMPLICATIONS OF C.A.R.E. VS. SOUTHVIEW FARM ON THE U.S. LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY INDUSTRY1

ABSTRACT: On May 19, 1993, a jury in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York found Southview Farm and Richard H. Popp guilty of violating the Clean Water Act on five occasions. The violations were the result of storm water runoff from a site used for disposal of dairy cattle manure from an unpermitted concentrated animal feeding operation. The presiding District Court judge later dismissed the jury verdict, and subsequently a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reversed the dismissal. The Court of Appeals concluded that the discharges were not exempt as agricultural storm water discharges, and that the manure spreaders involved were point sources. Because the use of animal manures in crop production activities will result, unavoidably, in the discharge of some pollutants to adjacent surface waters, a rational and universally applicable basis is needed to determine when such discharges are point versus nonpoint source. Current statutes and regulations do not delineate clearly such a boundary. To address this lack of specificity, I propose that application rates be based on recommended crop nutrient needs.     

地震科技人员开发能力的灰色关联分析

应用灰色系统理论，根据江苏省地震工程研究院的地震科技开发资料，分别以项目负责人的年龄、学历、职称、职务、学科作为比较数列，对年度内完成的实际合同额进行了多因素灰色关联分析，排出了关联序。研究结果客观地揭示了开发能力与人的各种因素——年龄、学历、职称、职务、学科之间的相互关系，为市场经济条件下，地震科技人才的开发、培养和应用，提供了科学依据。     

论灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系

本文以ＡＢＣ分类法说明了减轻地震灾害的重要意义，指出了地震灾害绝对损失数额一般会随社会经济发展而逐渐增大这一客观事实。文中提出了表达地震灾害危险性、防抗灾工程投资和社会经济发展关系的一般数学模型，对灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系进行了讨论。     

评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系

介绍了评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系。提出通过调查死亡、伤亡、患病等，分析其与灾区人口、特定年龄人群、职业、习惯、地理位置、时间分布等关系，来科学评价灾害的严重性，提出救灾技术措施和确定主要卫生服务内容，保护易感人群，为灾后进行建筑物结构或位置的易感性分析以及制定防灾减灾计划提供科学依据。     

神经网络及其在水库调洪演算中的应用

结合洪水灾害管理的特点建立了水库调洪演算的人工神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理及算法，并结合某水库调洪演算实例说明了其应用。     

减缓贫水化过程的途径再议

根据贫水化的严重形势，应用水循环的原理，提出了减缓贫水化的几个主要途径，对解决城市淡水短缺有参考意义。     

NATURAL EROSION RATES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE IDAHO BATHOLITH1

ABSTRACT: Natural rates of surface erosion on forested granitic soils in central Idaho were measured in 40 m² bordered erosion plots over a period of four years. In addition, we measured a variety of site variables, soil properties, and summer rainstorm intensities in order to relate erosion rates to site attributes. Median winter erosion rates are approximately twice summer period rates, however mean summer rates are nearly twice winter rates because of infrequent high erosion caused by summer rainstorms. Regression equation models and regression tree models were constructed to explore relationships between erosion and factors that control erosion rates. Ground cover is the single factor that has the greatest influence on erosion rates during both summer and winter periods. Rainstorm intensity (erosivity index) strongly influences summer erosion rates, even on soils with high ground cover percentages. Few summer storms were of sufficient duration and intensity to cause rilling on the plots, and the data set was too small to elucidate differences in rill vs. interrill erosion. The regression tree models are relatively less biased than the regression equations developed, and explained 70 and 84 percent of the variability in summer and winter erosion rates, respectively.     

MUNICIPAL WATER USE AND WATER RATES DRIVEN BY SEVERE DROUGHT: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper synthesizes and interprets data pertaining to the evolution of average water revenue, water use, and the average cost of water supply in the City of Santa Barbara, California, from 1986 to 1996, a period which included one of the most devastating droughts in California this century. The 1987–1992 drought hit the study area particularly hard. The City of Santa Barbara was dependent exclusively on local sources for its water supply. That made it vulnerable as the regional climate is prone to extreme variability and recurrent droughts. The 1986–1992 drought provided a rare opportunity to assess the sensitivity of municipal water use to pricing, conservation, and other water management measures under extreme drought conditions. Our analysis indicates that the average cost of water rose more than three-fold in real terms from 1986 to 1996, while the gap between the average cost of supply and the average revenue per unit of water (= 100 cubic feet) rose in real terms from $0.14 in 1986 to $ 0.75 in 1996. The rise of $3.08 in the average cost of supplying one unit of water between 1986 and 1996 measures the cost of hedging drought risk in the study area. Water use dropped 46 percent at the height of the drought relative to pro-drought water use, and remains at 61 percent of the pre-drought level. The data derived from the 1987–1992 California drought are unique and valuable insofar as shedding light on drought/water demand adaptive interactions. The experience garnered on drought management during that unique period points to the possibilities available for future water management in the Arid West where dwindling water supplies and burgeoning populations are facts that we must deal with.