农业化肥污染的政策成因及对策分析

化肥污染是农村面源污染的重要组成部分,如何解决该问题已经成为中国学者热议的话题。为了定量分析国家政策对化肥过量施用的影响,基于我国1998—2007年各省市的面板数据,借助STATA软件包和化肥施用效用模型假设,对其进行了回归分析。结果表明：一是随着经济发展水平的提升,农业化肥污染仍会不断加剧。二是多年来国家给予化肥企业＂优惠＋补贴＋限价＂的化肥行业发展政策是化肥过量施用的根本政策原因,当前国家惠农政策有助于降低化肥的需求量。三是当国家取消对化肥企业的补贴政策,继续当前的惠农政策时,则农民直补政策需以农民有利于环境的施肥方式为前提。四是若国家继续当前化肥行业发展政策和惠农政策,则视国家给予化肥企业的补贴确定一个直补额度,当对农民直补小于该额度时,则直补有利于农民减少对化肥的需求;但当直补超过这一额度时,农民则会增加对化肥的需求,因此后者需以农民施肥行为有利于环境为前提。     

元谋干热河谷植物功能性状组合的海拔梯度响应

植物功能性状能够显示对环境变化的响应,不同的适应对策呈现出不同的功能性状组合。干热河谷地区水分是最主要的限制性环境因子,之前的大部分研究都是集中关注于干热河谷局部地段,对于从垂直海拔上来研究不同植物在环境梯度下的变化的研究较少。干热河谷地区由于梵风效应,水分胁迫沿海拔梯度发生变化,一般表现为随海拔高度升高,气温降低,湿度和降水量增加,而蒸发量减小,辐射增强。以云南元谋干热河谷4个海拔梯度（1491.33、1730.20、1850.00、1925.57 m）中的植物为研究对象,选取叶片干物质含量（LDMC）、叶面积（LA）、比叶面积（SLA）、叶片厚度（LT）和叶密度（LD）5个功能性状,研究它们的相互关系,比较了海拔间的差异。结果表明：1）5个功能性状在不同海拔间均呈现出一定差异,变异系数由高到低为LD>LA>SLA>LT>LDMC（分别是101%、64%、56%、41%和19%）;方差分析结果也表明,5个功能性状在不同海拔之间差异显著（F=56.218,P<0.01;F=7.829,P<0.01;F=11.21,P<0.01;F=7.429,P<0.01;F=19.213,P<0.01）,尤其是在最低（1491.33 mm）和最高（1927.57 mm）海拔之间,各性状均具有极显著的差异;2）性状之间存在组合关系, LD与其他性状间相关性最为明显,除LDMC以外,LD与LA、SLA、LT均呈现出极显著负相关关系;LDMC与LA和LT呈极显著负相关;SLA与LA和LT呈正相关,而与LDMC显著负相关;LT与SLA显著正相关,与LA之间相关性不显著;3）在不同的海拔梯度之间,性状组合存在非同步变化现象。研究显示,元谋干热河谷地区,植物对水分环境的海拔梯度变化产生功能性状组合的响应,低海拔和高海拔物种对所处环境的适应策略不同,使得植物在海拔梯度上出现叶片功能性状组合的分化和差异。     

Use of the Contingent Valuation Method in the assessment of a landfill mining project

A comprehensive approach for the evaluation of the economic feasibility of landfill mining (LFM) should take into account not only the direct costs and revenues for the private investor, but also the social benefits or costs (generally called externalities), in such a way that projects generating major social benefits (and no significant private revenues) are not overlooked.With a view to contributing to the development of a common framework for the evaluation of LFM projects, this paper presents the results of a case study where the issue of the assessment of social benefits from a LFM project is addressed. In particular, the Contingent Valuation Method is applied for the monetary assessment of the community-perceived benefits from the remediation of an old uncontrolled waste deposit by means of LFM and the conversion of the area into a park.Based on the results of a survey carried out on a random sample of people living near the old landfill, the economic values of the individual willingness to pay (WTP) for LFM and the subsequent creation of a public park were calculated and the correlations with the relevant variables (distance from the landfill site, age, income, sex, education level) assessed. The results were then suitably extended and the monetary value of the welfare increase of the whole population resident in the area and potentially affected both by LFM and the creation of the park was calculated.     

Factors influencing NOx emission of a stationary diesel engine fuelled with crude rice bran oil methyl ester blend – Taguchi approach

The main objective of this work is to control the NO_x emission of a stationary diesel engine fuelled with crude rice bran oil methyl ester blend with less sacrifice on smoke density and brake thermal efficiency (BTE) and also to investigate the factors influencing the objective. Fuel injection timing, percentage of exhaust gas recirculation and fuel injection pressure are chosen as the promising factors for the objective and NO_x emission, smoke density and BTE are considered as response variables. Tests were conducted as per Taguchi’s L₉ orthogonal array and the most influencing factor for each response variable and also the significance of each factor on the same was found out through analysis of variance (ANOVA). Response graph was drawn for each response variable and from the results of response graph and ANOVA the optimum combination of the factor levels in achieving the objective was obtained and the same was confirmed experimentally.     

THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF TIME AND AVERTING EXPENDITURES FOR SAFE DRINKING WATER1

ABSTRACT: A survey of individuals during a Giardia contamination incident provided data to calculate the cost of boiling, hauling, or purchasing water to avoid infection. Three different approaches to the valuation of time were used to assess the implications of the opportunity cost of time for the measurement of averting costs. Mean monthly household averting costs were $33.47 using family income to value time, $13.07 using the minimum wage to value time, and $5.60 using zero opportunity cost of time. Comparisons of the mean costs for different sources and household characteristics indicated the value of time from family income was too high and that the other methods of valuing time were superior.     

Evaluation of beach quality as perceived by users

Recreational beaches are strategic ecosystems for tourism and should be used in a sustainable manner. We studied three beaches in the municipality of Guaymas (NW Mexico), in order to assess their beach quality and identify key management issues. The evaluation was based on the perceptions of users concerning: (1) the user profile; (2) the recreational habits of users; and (3) the biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, services, and cleanliness of each beach. The results showed that the beaches were of different quality. The key management issues identified were the need to design and apply specific management programs for each beach, specifically in regards to improving infrastructure and services, and obtaining certification as a sustainable beach. The evaluation of the beaches as perceived by users suggests that it would be useful to assess beach quality in order to support management goals and be applicable to other beaches, both nationally and internationally.     

雾霾时车辆尾气排放对驾驶员能见度的影响

针对北京道路车辆尾气排放对雾霾时驾驶员道路能见度的影响问题,建立了雾霾时车辆尾气排放与驾驶员道路能见度关系模型。该模型以车辆为单元建立车辆尾气排放元胞,考虑了车辆尾气排放后的污染物物理和化学变化,并以车道中的尾气排放位置截面及截面单元、交叉口处的尾气排放位置区间为模型单元。为验证该模型,于2016年10月-2017年2月和2017年10月-2018年2月,在北京地区部分路网检测了驾驶员道路能见度等数据,并统计了各时段驾驶员道路能见度的分布情况。对建立的关系模型进行仿真,结果表明,该关系模型的仿真结果与实际检测数据的误差占比平均值小于4. 98%,验证了该关系模型用于描述北京市道路车辆尾气排放对雾霾时驾驶员道路能见度影响的有效性。     

Using deep-belief networks to understand propensity for livelihood change in a rural coastal community to further conservation

Overharvesting of terrestrial and marine resources may be alleviated by encouraging an alternative configuration of livelihoods, particularly in rural communities in developing countries. Typical occupations in such areas include fishing and farming, and rural households often switch livelihood activities to suit climate and economic conditions. We used a machine-learning tool, deep-belief networks (DBN), and data from surveys of a rural Philippine coastal community to examine household desire to change livelihood. This desire is affected by a variety of factors, such as income, family needs, and feelings of work satisfaction, that are interrelated in complex ways. In farming households, livelihood changes often occur to diversify resources, increase income, and lessen economic risk. The DBN, given its multilayer perceptron structure, has a capacity to model nonlinear relationships among factors while providing an acceptable degree of accuracy. Relative to a set of 34 features (e.g., education, boat ownership, and work satisfaction), we examined the binary response variables desire to change work or not to change work. The best network had a test set accuracy of 97.5%. Among the features, 7 significantly affected desire to shift work: ethnicity, work satisfaction, number of persons in a household in ill health, number of fighting cocks owned, fishing engagement, buy-and-sell revenue, and educational level. A cross-correlation matrix of these 7 features indicated households less inclined to change work were those engaged in fishing and retail buying and selling. For fishing, provision of economic and other incentives should be considered to encourage changing from this occupation to allow recovery of fishery resources.