人因可靠性数据库基础架构研究

针对人因可靠性分析中的数据匮乏问题,在技能-规则-知识(SRK)模型的基础上建立层次化的人因可靠性数据分类体系,其中包括人因失误模式和人因失误影响因素。结合对一些实际人因失误数据的考察,以及可控实验,确定人因可靠性数据库中基准人因失误概率。在人因数据外推系统中,使用层次分析法(AHP)来定量评价人因失误所处的情境的等级,并使用概率方法将基准人因失误概率与情境进行叠加,从而得到人因失误概率。人因数据库有助于人因可靠性数据的搜集和分析,形式化的外推方法减少了对主观因素的依赖。     

CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。     

Five-wheel framework for system-based monitoring of heavy metal pollution in rivers

Sectorial approach for monitoring heavy metal pollution in rivers has failed to report realistic pollution status and associated ecological and human health risks. The increasing spread of heavy metals from different sources and emerging risks to human and environmental health call for reexamining heavy metal pollution monitoring frameworks. Also, the sources, spread, and load of heavy metals in the environment have changed significantly over time, requiring consequent modification in the monitoring frameworks. Therefore, studies on heavy metal monitoring in rivers conducted in the last decade were evaluated for experimental designs, research frameworks, and data presentations. Most studies (∼99%) (i) lacked inclusiveness of all environmental compartments; (ii) focused on “one pollutant – one/two compartment” or sometimes “one pollutant – one compartment – one effect” approach; and (iii) remained “data-rich but information poor.” An ecological approach with integrative system thinking is proposed to develop a holistic approach for monitoring river pollution. It is visualized that heavy metal monitoring, risk analyses, and water management must incorporate tracking pollutants in different environmental compartments of a river (water, sediment, and floodplain/bank soil) and consider correlating it with riverbank land use. The systems-based pollution monitoring and assessment studies will reveal the critical factors that drive heavy metals pollutant movement in ecosystems and associated potential risks to the environment, wildlife, and humans. Also, water quality and pollution indexing tools would help better communicate complex pollution data and associated risks among all stakeholders. Therefore, integrating systems approaches in scientific- and policy-based tools would help sustainably manage the health of rivers, wildlife, and humans.     

鸭绿江上游细鳞鱼的生境现状及资源退化原因分析

细鳞鱼作为名贵的鲑科陆封型冷水性鱼类,属于国家二级保护动物。近年来我国冷水鱼资源急剧下降,有些种类濒临灭绝。本项研究进行了冷水鱼在鸭绿江上游支流生存繁息的生态环境现状调查和监测,为冷水鱼生存环境提供背景值,同时也为冷水鱼类的人工增养殖和保存冷水鱼物种提供环境方面的科学依据。根据测定结果分析,冷水鱼资源退化的直接原因不是冷水水域水质的恶化,而是人类活动的干扰。     

人体热应变预测方法标准在热安全评价中的应用

工业生产中存在着大量的高温工作环境,如高温生产车间或夏季露天作业环境等。高温工作环境可能导致人体体温升高、出汗脱水,对人体安全造成危害。建立人体热生理响应模型,通过计算得出人体生理指标变化,从而判断人体安全状态,是有效的人体安全评价方法。ISO 7933是人体热应变计算方法的国际标准。在考虑了环境和人体的多种情况下,给出人体相关生理参数的计算方法。基于此方法,与人体热安全阈值相结合,建立人体热安全评价方法,并给出了典型热环境下的算例。该方法也可用于评价热防护服的有效性。     

Zearalenone screening of human breast milk from the Naples area

The mycotoxin zearalenone exhibits estrogenic and anabolic properties in several animal species, humans included. Food contamination by zearalenone is caused either by direct contamination of grains, fruits, and their based-products or by “carry-over” of mycotoxins in animal tissues, milk, and eggs after intake of contaminated feedstuff. Now, a survey on zearalenone contamination in breast milk of healthy primiparous women living in the Naples countryside was conducted. From 47 healthy primiparous women, breast milk samples were collected within the first six weeks after delivery as well as clinical data of mother–newborn pairs. Breast milk analyses were performed with both competitive indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. At 36.9 ± 2.6 days after vaginal delivery, the mean zearalenone contents of the breast milk samples were 1.13 ± 0.34 µg/L. The zearalenone levels correlated with both mother weights before pregnancy (r = ?0.506; P < 0.001) and at delivery (r = ?0.351; P < 0.05). The present results indicate that breast milk may be contaminated with zearalenone.     

Metal characterization of airborne particulate matters in a coastal region

The concentrations of suspended particulate matter in the air of the Orissa Sand Complex had an average value of 128 ± 10 µg m^?3 in residential areas and 170 ± 8 µg m^?3 in mining areas. PM₁₀ levels in residential areas were found to have an average of 35 ± 10 µg m^?3, in mining areas 45 ± 10 µg m^?3. The distribution of some elements is also discussed here. Inhalation doses were observed to be higher in summer than in winter and the rainy season. The highest dose rate was for the age group of 1 year, and health risks were found to be highest for the same. For adults, inhalation dose and health risk are 1.3 times higher in mining than in residential areas.     

黑河流域中下游全境地表-地下水耦合模型与应用

耦合概念性水资源评价与规划模型WEAP和分布式地下水模型MODFLOW,建立需求驱动的黑河流域中下游全境地表-地下水耦合模型,并利用地表水文站点和地下水观测点数据进行模型率定.结果表明,率定期和验证期地表水模拟的纳氏系数>0.7,地下水位模拟的均方根残差<0.80m.应用模型对流域历史水循环反演模拟表明,黑河干流(黑河东枝)2002~2012年水量统一调度使正义峡年均来流较原管理方式增加1.63亿m3(约18%);讨赖河(黑河西枝)因人类活动改变了西部子水系河流水文情势,基本切断了与黑河干流下游尾闾水系的水力联系;黑河东西两枝人类活动和出山口径流变化共同影响着下游狼心山断面径流量,直接导致了居延海之前消失和现在的恢复.     

健康风险评估方法在中国重金属污染中的应用及暴露评估模型的研究进展

经济的快速发展导致中国环境质量日趋恶化.随着健康意识的增强,人们越来越重视污染物暴露人群的健康风险评估.与其他污染物相比,重金属污染区域广,重金属暴露人群多且集中.为了研究重金属暴露条件下人群的健康风险,USEPA 模型、统计模型、地理信息系统、可给性研究的方法已被中国不同学者应用.暴露评估模型作为污染物暴露人群健康风险评估的主要环节,国外的研究已经比较成熟,但相关研究在中国还处于空白阶段.对中国近年来在城市表层土壤（灰尘）、矿区土壤、膳食、地下水和饮用水、大气颗粒物进行重金属风险评估中应用的健康风险评估方法,进行了归纳和评述,并对欧美常用暴露评估模型：环境暴露评估模型、膳食暴露评估模型进行了介绍.中国健康风险评估工作起步晚,在评估的各环节均存在很大缺陷.随着新技术的发展以及人群对环境健康风险认识的深化,健康风险评估将成为中国热门研究领域之一.污染的环境行为、剂量一效应关系、模型、风险信息等方面,将是未来中国健康风险评估研究的重点.     

台州电子垃圾循环区域母乳中多氯联苯的污染现状

本文对浙江省台州市路桥和温岭两个电子垃圾循环区域母乳中多氯联苯(PCBs)污染现状进行了研究.路桥本地人群(n=16)、温岭本地人群(n=27)及在台州居住不足5年的外地人群(n=9)母乳中PCBs的中值浓度分别为195 ng·g-1脂重(lw)、138 ng·g-1lw和59.1 ng·g-1lw.路桥和温岭人群母乳中PCBs浓度显著高于在台州居住不足5年的外地人群(P<0.001),也远高于浙江省及中国背景区域水平.CB-118、CB-153和CB-138是台州母乳中最主要的3种同类物,与台州膳食样本中PCBs的指纹特征类似.路桥本地人群婴儿通过饮用母乳日摄入的PCBs量(EDI)(1024 ng·kg-1bw·d-1)略高于加拿大卫生部建议的成人对PCBs日耐受量(1000 ng·kg-1bw·d-1),温岭本地人群乳儿的EDI值(491 ng·kg-1bw·d-1)远高于我国12个省市EDI的均值(54.6 ng·kg-1bw·d-1),表明台州本地人群母乳喂养的婴儿处于较高的PCBs暴露风险中.母乳中PCBs浓度与母亲年龄、孕前体重指数、产次和婴儿的体重及性别无显著相关性.