Large-sample-size assessment of socioeconomic predictors of community-level resource management occurrence

Community-level resource management efforts are cornerstones in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. Yet, understanding how community characteristics influence management practices remains contested. With a sample size of ≥725 communities, we assessed the effects of key community (i.e., socioeconomic) characteristics (human population size and density, market integration, and modernization) on the probability of occurrence of fisheries management practices, including gear, species, and spatial restrictions. The study was based in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island country with a population that is highly dependent on coastal fisheries. People primarily dwell in small communities adjacent to the coastline dispersed across 6 island provinces and numerous smaller islands. We used nationally collected data in binomial logistic regression models to examine the likelihood of management occurrence, given socioeconomic context of communities. In contrast to prevailing views, we identified a positive and statistically significant association between both human population size and market integration and all 3 management practices. Human population density, however, had a statistically significant negative association and modernization a varied and limited association with occurrence of all management practices. Our method offers a way to remotely predict the occurrence of resource management practices based on key socioeconomic characteristics. It could be used to improve understanding of why some communities conduct natural resource management activities when statistical patterns suggest they are not likely to and thus improve understanding of how some communities of people beat the odds despite limited market access and high population density.     

Improving protected area effectiveness through consideration of different human-pressure baselines

Previous assessments of the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) focused primarily on changes in human pressure over time and did not consider the different human-pressure baselines of PAs, thereby potentially over- or underestimating PA effectiveness. We developed a framework that considers both human-pressure baseline and change in human pressure over time and assessed the effectiveness of 338 PAs in China from 2010 to 2020. The initial state of human pressure on PAs was taken as the baseline, and changes in human pressure index (HPI) were further analyzed under different baselines. We used the random forest models to identify the management measures that most improved effectiveness in resisting human pressure for the PAs with different baselines. Finally, the relationships between the changes in the HPI and the changes in natural ecosystems in PAs were analyzed with different baselines. Of PAs with low HPI baselines, medium HPI baselines, and high HPI baselines, 76.92% (n=150), 11.11% (n=12), and 22.86% (n=8) , respectively, showed positive effects in resisting human pressure. Overall, ignoring human-pressure baselines somewhat underestimated the positive effects of PAs, especially for those with low initial human pressure. For PAs with different initial human pressures, different management measures should be taken to improve effectiveness and reduce threats to natural ecosystems. We believe our framework is useful for assessing the effectiveness of PAs globally, and we recommend it be included in the Convention on Biological Diversity Post-2020 Strategy.     

基于HFACS-BN模型的危险化学品事故人因路径分析*

为提高危险化学品安全管理水平,收集我国134起以人为主因的危险化学品事故,构建危险化学品事故的HFACS-BN模型,并基于贝叶斯网络对危险化学品事故中的人因路径及各因素灵敏度进行分析。研究结果表明:行为违规是导致事故的最主要不安全行为;在复杂路径中,环境因素和操作者状态具有较高的灵敏度,与其相关的风险认知与处理不当是阻碍事故预防的关键因素;在非复杂路径中,操作者状态与运行计划不当具有较高的灵敏度,其所涉及的监督违规、组织过程和组织氛围,是导致危险化学品事故的根本起点,并可依此分析事故直接原因和间接原因;操作者状态在2种路径中均表现出高灵敏度,因此化工企业在人员管理上要加强关注职工状态,减少不安全行为的出现。     

Comparative Toxicity of PCBs and PBDEs Using Human Cancer Cell Lines and Zebrafish Embryos

研究了6种多氯联苯(PCBs)3,3′,4,4′-四氯联苯(PCB77)、2,3,3′,4,4′-五氯联苯(PCB105)、2,3′,4,4′,5-五氯联苯(PCB118)、3,3′,4,4′,5-五氯联苯(PCB126)、2,3,3',4,4',5-六氯联苯(PCB156)和商业型混合多氯联苯Aroclor1254,两种多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)2,2′,4,4′-四溴二苯醚(PBDE47)、十溴二苯醚(PBDE209)对人类癌细胞生长和斑马鱼脱膜与不脱膜胚胎发育的影响.8种化合物均使用0.01、0.1、1.0、10μmol·L-14个浓度进行1~6d的暴露实验.结果表明,PBDE209在最高浓度10μmol·L-1下对结肠癌细胞HCT116(暴露3d后)和RKO(暴露5d后)具有显著的生长抑制作用,所有化合物均对乳腺癌细胞没有显著影响.相比之下,化合物对受精后5~6h(5~6hpf)的斑马鱼胚胎的毒性效应显得比较明显,而各化合物对胚胎的致畸和致死效应又不相同,其毒性强弱依次为PCB126≈PCB156>PCB1254(Aroclor1254)>PBDE47>PCB77>PCB105≈PCB118≈PBDE209.其中PBDE209在未脱膜暴毒后均无致畸与致死现象,脱膜暴毒后最高浓度才表现出显著意义的致畸作用,而PBDE47在最高浓度下可产生高达80%的致畸率,这说明胚胎绒毛膜具有有效阻挡大分子物质如PBDE209进入的作用.PCBs的毒性效应与其空间结构密切相关.如PCB126和PCB105具有相同的分子式,前者在1μmol·L-1下就引起了显著的致死和致畸效应,而后者即使在10μmol·L-1下也没有显著的效应.实验结果也说明不同类型的实验对象所展示的毒性效应并不相同,化合物对体外培养的细胞和发育中的胚胎具有不同的影响.     

四溴二苯醚对人甲状腺细胞功能的影响

为研究四溴二苯醚(BDE-47)对原代培养人甲状腺细胞功能的影响,分别用浓度为10-12、10-10和10-8mol·L-1的BDE-47处理原代人甲状腺滤泡上皮细胞(TEC)24h,采用化学发光酶联免疫检测法检测细胞上清液中甲状腺球蛋白(Tg)的浓度,半定量逆转录聚合酶链反应技术检测功能相关的Tg基因和双链复合蛋白8(Pax-8)基因的表达.结果表明,10-12、10-10mol·L-1暴露组Tg分泌量较对照组显著减少(p<0.05),而10-8mol·L-1BDE-47组Tg分泌量与对照组无显著性差异(p>0.05).甲状腺功能相关Tg基因和Pax-8基因的表达量随BDE-47浓度的增加而显著降低(p<0.05),呈明显的剂量-效应关系.以上结果提示,BDE-47对离体培养的原代人甲状腺细胞的功能具有抑制作用,甲状腺功能相关Tg基因和Pax-8基因的表达下调可能是其作用机制之一.     

环境与生态系统资本价值评估的若干问题

近年来,环境与生态系统资本价值评估中的概念界定、系统价值认定及评价模式选择等之类的问题成为相关研究中有争议的议题.鉴于此,对环境与生态系统资本价值评估中的一些问题进行了探讨.①在肯定环境与生态系统资本价值评估意义的基础上,指出对于环境与生态系统的整体价值要予以充分估价;②针对目前评价模式单一的现状,提出了整合类型与区域评估的新模式;③在分析了环境与生态系统的资本价值在空间上流动之后,认为应对价值的积累和流动过程给予充分关注;最后,提出了几条具体的建议.     

和田河年径流变化规律研究

根据和田河实测年径流资料,应用小波分析、R/S分析等多种方法,探讨了在气候变化和人类活动影响下,和田河年径流变化规律及其成因。结果表明,和田河年径流存在减少趋势,且具有一定的持续性。通过径流变化的影响因素分析表明,上游出山口处两支流的径流变化主要受气温升高的影响,下游入塔里木河处除受降水减少的影响外,主要是由于人类对水土资源开发进程的加快,人类活动是其径流变化的主要原因。     

Driver Injury Risk Variability in Finite Element Reconstructions of Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: A 3-phase real-world motor vehicle crash (MVC) reconstruction method was developed to analyze injury variability as a function of precrash occupant position for 2 full-frontal Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases.

Method: Phase I: A finite element (FE) simplified vehicle model (SVM) was developed and tuned to mimic the frontal crash characteristics of the CIREN case vehicle (Camry or Cobalt) using frontal New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) crash test data. Phase II: The Toyota HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) v4.01 was positioned in 120 precrash configurations per case within the SVM. Five occupant positioning variables were varied using a Latin hypercube design of experiments: seat track position, seat back angle, D-ring height, steering column angle, and steering column telescoping position. An additional baseline simulation was performed that aimed to match the precrash occupant position documented in CIREN for each case. Phase III: FE simulations were then performed using kinematic boundary conditions from each vehicle's event data recorder (EDR). HIC15, combined thoracic index (CTI), femur forces, and strain-based injury metrics in the lung and lumbar vertebrae were evaluated to predict injury.

Results: Tuning the SVM to specific vehicle models resulted in close matches between simulated and test injury metric data, allowing the tuned SVM to be used in each case reconstruction with EDR-derived boundary conditions. Simulations with the most rearward seats and reclined seat backs had the greatest HIC15, head injury risk, CTI, and chest injury risk. Calculated injury risks for the head, chest, and femur closely correlated to the CIREN occupant injury patterns. CTI in the Camry case yielded a 54% probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ chest injury in the baseline case simulation and ranged from 34 to 88% (mean = 61%) risk in the least and most dangerous occupant positions. The greater than 50% probability was consistent with the case occupant's AIS 2 hemomediastinum. Stress-based metrics were used to predict injury to the lower leg of the Camry case occupant. The regional-level injury metrics evaluated for the Cobalt case occupant indicated a low risk of injury; however, strain-based injury metrics better predicted pulmonary contusion. Approximately 49% of the Cobalt occupant's left lung was contused, though the baseline simulation predicted 40.5% of the lung to be injured.

Conclusions: A method to compute injury metrics and risks as functions of precrash occupant position was developed and applied to 2 CIREN MVC FE reconstructions. The reconstruction process allows for quantification of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the injury risk predictions based on occupant position to further understand important factors that lead to more severe MVC injuries.     

中亚与我国西北地区环境蠕变问题的分析

讨论了中亚和我国西北地区环境蠕变问题,分析了环境蠕变与人类活动,环境蠕变与气候变化的关系.结果表明,在近年全球增暖的背景下,由于人类过度开采和利用水资源,引起了环境进一步恶化;气候变暖加速了环境恶化的进程.干旱、半干旱地区,生态脆弱,当人类活动超过自然承载力时,小的气候波动也可能引起大的环境变化.     

苏南地区部分饮用水源水的有机污染物研究

以美国EPA建议的多污染物分析与评价系统,对苏南地区部分饮用水源水质的危险度进行了评价。评价结果各水样健康危险度均>1,表明各水样对人健康均存在潜在危害,而生态风险度均<1。同时,采用人外周血淋巴细胞彗星试验,对各水样有机浓集物的生物毒性进行了研究,结果表明水样浓集物可对淋巴细胞DNA产生不同程度的损伤,存在一定的遗传毒性。试验结果与水质状况基本一致,表明上述两种方法对于评价水体有机物污染的有效性。