基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价

为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价,提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上,构建认知行为模型,考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性,利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合,克服了单一赋权法的不足;引用可拓学原理,建立多级可拓评价模型,修正了风险评价的偏差,使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明:此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的,且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。     

基于人因可靠性的间歇装置SIL分析与改进

IEC 61508和IEC 61511等标准针对连续工艺装置提出了安全仪表系统安全完整性等级评估方法。但对于间歇装置的SIL评估,受人因因素影响水平并未明确,且没有提出相应计算模型。以某六氟磷酸锂间歇生产装置典型SIS为例,采用HAZOP结合LOPA方法对其进行风险分析,在明确间歇生产装置存在人员中毒、窒息及燃烧爆炸风险的基础上,确定并验证其安全仪表系统的SIL,再依据间歇生产装置人工依赖性高,即部分安全仪表系统未接入自动联锁且需人工手动触发的特点,建立人因可靠性模型,来分析人因可靠性对安全仪表系统SIL的影响,并进行改进研究。研究结果表明:人因因素对安全仪表系统SIL有显著影响;可通过改变SIS元件冗余结构、测试策略并结合改进人因管理措施来提高SIL。     

中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。     

生计资本异质对农户农地流转行为的影响——以武汉城市郊区的516户农民为例

以武汉市城郊江夏区和蔡甸区的516户农民家庭为实证,运用logistic和分位数回归模型探索家庭生计资本对农户土地流转行为的影响及阈值。结果表明:(1)人力资本和金融资本与农户农地转出行为呈显著正向相关,家庭农地资源禀赋、机耕能力、社会资源禀赋及经营能力的信任程度等与农地转出行为负向相关。相反,自然资源禀赋及农业机械投入对农户土地转入行为的正向影响显著,而家庭融资能力则对农户转入行为呈显著的负向影响。(2)分位数回归结果显示,对农户土地流转行为存在影响阈值的仅有韧性指数。当农户家庭韧性指数≤2时,随韧性指数增强农户农地转出倾向愈强;家庭韧性指数≥3时,农户农地转出倾向随指数增强而弱化。该研究从农户微观个体视角探索生计资本异质对农地流转行为的影响,为针对农户家庭需求制定差别化的农地流转政策、有效推进农业适度规模经营提供建议参考。     

Bordering Ecosystems: The Rhetorical Function of Characterization in Gray Wolf Management

Decisions about iconic species such as the wolf provide a key index of human–nature relations. The gray wolf's reintroduction in the USA has been controversial, particularly at the interface of state versus federal management. This essay analyzes discourse surrounding this controversy, focusing on how wolves are characterized as ecological and social actors in official correspondence and management plans. I interpret this textual evidence by drawing from social theory regarding sovereignty, discipline, and population, including studies on bordering practices imposed on humans. As with humans, bordering practices in the case of the wolf may illuminate how political forces impose physical and discursive limits upon mobile bodies motivated to move across political borders by powerful exigencies of need. The essay seeks to amplify understanding about how regimes of power enact difference from “others” whose presence strongly influences the health of ecosystems and economies.     

Assessing non‐metro recovery across two continents: issues and limitations

Rural and remote areas of countries such as Australia and the United States are less well‐resourced and often poorer than their city counterparts. When a disaster strikes, therefore, their long‐term recovery can be impeded by being situated ‘over the horizon'. Nonetheless, they are likely to enjoy higher social capital, with ‘locals’ banding together to help restore economic and social life in the wake of a calamitous incident. At the same time, a repeat of extreme events, springing in part from alteration to the landscape through intense human occupation, threatens to derail sustainable recovery processes everywhere, suggesting that renewed emphasis needs to be placed on preparedness. Improved metrics are also required, spanning both pre‐ and post‐disaster phases, to determine effectiveness. Moreover, a focus on the ‘hardening’ of towns offers a better return in limiting damage and potentially hastens the speed of recovery should these places later fall victim to extreme events.     

Genotoxicity assessment of human peripheral Lymphocytes induced by thallium(I) and thallium(III)

Thallium is a non-essential metal with a wide range of industrial uses. However, thallium is also a potential pollutant with high potential toxicity to humans. In the present study, we analyzed and compared the cellular and genotoxic effects of thallium in two main oxidation states by applying chromosome aberration assays to human peripheral lymphocytes. We observed that thallium(I) sulfate reduced the mitotic index at all tested concentrations (0.5, 1, 5, 50 and 100 μg/mL), whereas thallium(III) chloride was toxic at concentrations ≥1 μg/mL. Thallium(I) and thallium(III) treatment significantly increased structural chromosomal aberrations, with and without gaps, and increased the percentage of aberrant cells without gaps. Furthermore, satellite associations and numerical chromosomal aberration tests showed significant differences at a few of the tested concentrations. The satellite association test is related to aneuploidy. Thallium salts increased satellite associations when hyperploid cells were observed. Our results indicated that the two oxidation states of thallium induced toxicity in vitro – i.e. cyto/genotoxic (clastogenic and aneuploidogenic) effects.     

全氟和多氟化合物替代品的研究进展

全氟和多氟化合物(per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)是一类新型持久性有机污染物(POPs),广泛应用于工业和人类日常生活用品中。此类化合物具有高能量的C-F共价键,因此具有优良的理化特性和生物稳定性。由于存在持久性、生物累积性、长距离迁移以及毒性等问题,长链PFASs(C7)已经成为全世界关注的焦点之一,寻找能够替代PFASs的新型化合物具有重要意义。本文介绍了几种可能替代PFASs的新型氟化替代品,PFASs替代品在各类环境介质中的分布、持久性、人体暴露及毒性等几个方面进行了综述,特别对目前存在的问题及今后的研究方向进行了讨论和展望,以期为PFASs替代品的环境污染及风险评估提供参考。     

Young adult conservation jobs and worker health

Decades of research studies demonstrate links between healthy environment, healthy lifestyles, and healthy people. This study evaluated the correlations between young adult conservation workers' perceived stress, personal effectiveness, and nature experience using quantitative and qualitative social science methods. The study cohort numbered nearly 300 individuals serving on small crews for an entire year, and were dispersed across Washington State (USA) to participate in conservation projects in rural to urban landscapes. Pre- and post-test surveys, using validated measures of perceived stress, health dimensions, and personal resiliency, were further informed by mid-year, field-based interviews. Overall, the young adults expressed fatigue with the physical work but were quite healthy when compared to national benchmarks. They indicated a reduction in perceived stress, and indicated social function influences based on the conservation work. Conclusions address the importance and implications of expanding this work opportunity to a more diverse cohort and future research needs.     

长江中游西部地区洪水灾害的历史演变——人文因素与当前趋势

探讨了近3000年来长江中游西部洪水灾害发展的人文因素。古代（3000—700aBP）人口较少,多择地势高的岗地居住,只有少数沿江城市需要堤防保护;长江干流洪水可多处分道散流,所携带泥沙导致云梦泽解体消亡。自宋代开始,低地筑垸围湖,与水争地,但九穴十三口畅通,洪水灾害不严重。明代（700—450a B P）几乎完全堵塞了荆江北流的穴口,荆北大堤联成一体,但堤防薄弱,出现过30次决口成灾。清代以来,随着人口激增,与水争地矛盾加剧,堤防加高培厚,使荆江河道洪水位大幅度上升,溃堤和溃坝洪水灾害较明代成倍出现。同时,历代的“舍南保北”政策迫使长江干流大洪水中过半水量与泥沙向南泄入洞庭湖,曾使洞庭湖面积扩至6000km^2,以后洞庭湖迅速淤积萎缩。1949至1985年间,人口又一次迅速增长,进一步加强围湖垦殖,大量通江湖泊面积萎缩。除1954和1998年那样人所共知的严重洪水灾害外,内涝渍水灾害也非常严重,人类与洪水的矛盾达到了顶点。改革开放后,尤其是三峡大坝的修建,极大地改变了长江中游的水文情势,工业化与城市化的迅猛发展,农村人口压力减轻,而21世纪初期降水相对较少,因此当前相当一段时间长江中游洪水灾害大为缓和。应抓住时机,总结经验,在人地和谐的现代水科学技术理念指导下,制定21世纪前半期,特别是2020年前的长江水利和水资源发展规划,促使人与洪水和谐共处。