Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

基于震后低压变化的供水管网功能可靠度分析

供水管网的抗震功能是指供水管网在地震作用下能够满足震后城市特定用水需要(需水量和水压)的能力。地震发生后,供水管网一般处于低压供水状态,使得管网中部分用户的水压和水量不能得到全部满足,导致管网部分节点的实际配水量小于需水量。为此,在传统的管网水力分析基础上考虑节点流量随节点水压的动态变化,通过求解非线性水力方程组,得到管网节点实际流量和水压;同时,借鉴结构可靠度分析方法,引入供水管网系统随机水力模型,给出了震后供水管网功能可靠度分析的一次二阶矩方法。以一实际管网为例,演示了震后低压供水时管网功能可靠度分析的应用方法。     

Monte Carlo analysis of field water flow comparing uni- and bimodal effective hydraulic parameters for structured soil

Soil structure critically affects the hydrological behaviour of soils. In this paper, we examined the impact of areal heterogeneity of hydraulic properties of a structured soil on soil ensemble behaviour for various soil water flow processes with different top boundary conditions (redistribution and drainage plus evaporation and infiltration). Using a numerical solution of the Richards' equation in a stochastic framework, the ensemble characteristics and flow dynamics were studied for drying and wetting processes observed during a time interval of ten days when a series of relatively intense rainfall events occurred. The effects of using unimodal and bimodal interpretative models of hydraulic properties on the ensemble hydrological behaviour of the soil were illustrated by comparing predictions to mean water contents measured over time in several sites at field scale. Although the differences between unimodal and bimodal fitting are not significant in terms of goodness of fit, the differences in process predictions are considerable with the bimodal soil simulating water content measurements much better than unimodal soil. We also investigated the relative contribution of the soil variability of each parameter on the variance of the water contents obtained as the main output of the stochastic simulations. The variability of the structural parameter, weighting the two pore space fractions in the bimodal interpretative model, has the largest contribution to water content variance. The contribution of each parameter depends only partly on the coefficient of variation, much more on the sensitivity of the model to the parameters and on the flow process being observed. We observed that the contribution of the retention parameters to uncertainty increases during drainage processes; the opposite occurs with the hydraulic conductivity parameters.     

Adaptive Management of Stream Channel Maintenance at Bridge Crossings in the Northern Tier Region,Pennsylvania1

Abstract: An adaptive management framework is applied to the problem of identifying mitigation measures for sediment deposition near bridge crossings in small streams in the Northern Tier region of northern Pennsylvania. The presence of the rigid bridge infrastructure introduces a challenge for applying adaptive management practices, because the integrity of the bridge structure itself has to be maintained regardless of the mitigation practices used in the stream channel near the bridge. In an effort to overcome the unacceptable risk that field‐scale adaptive management experiments present to rigid bridge infrastructure, an adaptive management approach for laboratory‐scale experimentation of mitigation methods at bridge crossings in the Northern Tier region is presented as a way to decrease the level of uncertainty about channel response to mitigation measures and increase the rate of learning about the effectiveness of these measures. Four cycles of adaptive management experiments are discussed to demonstrate that this approach results in fast and efficient learning about channel response to mitigation methods for the given conditions. The value of monitoring and of assessment of monitored data in the overall efficiency of the adaptive management approach is highlighted. Assessment of what was learned in the adaptive management experiment cycles presented here leads to new directions to continually improve management policies and practices in stream channels at bridge crossings in the Northern Tier region. The adaptive management process, rather than continuing with a normally risk‐averse management approach, results in opportunities for learning new information about a system’s response.     

人工湿地构筑根孔作用下土壤物质分布状况

嘉兴市石臼漾湿地应用人工构筑根孔技术,以玉米秸秆和油菜秸秆按比例混合埋植于土壤亚表层,作为湿地的基质/填料。在湿地运行一年半后,按照正交设计表,以埋植秸秆的种类(S)、填埋的土壤层次(L)、距离秸秆外环的远近(D)和秸秆周围土壤的表观颜色(C)作为实验因素,对秸秆周围养分物质浓度、土壤酶活性以及铁含量进行采样分析。实验结果显示:玉米秸秆和油菜秸秆腐烂较充分,分别形成较发达的粗根孔和细根孔;根孔周围土壤呈中度还原状态;粗根孔具有较强的优先流效应,其周围土壤具有较高的养分物质含量和较低的Fe2+/Fe3+比。粗根孔周围土壤具有较高的磷酸酶活性,而细根孔周围具有较高的β-葡糖苷酶活性和脲酶活性。综合比较,人工湿地构建初期,径级较大秸秆腐烂后形成的粗根孔发挥着更高的水分传导效率和更强的物质截留效应。     

几种腐殖填料生物滤池COD去除效能比较研究

分别采用腐殖垃圾、泥炭、煤炭等腐殖填料及河沙构筑生物滤池,处理模拟废水,比较研究其COD去除效能及降解特征,为工艺填料改性提供理论依据。几种填料的扫描电镜分析图显示腐殖垃圾及泥炭以团聚体三维空间结构为主;煤炭与河沙表面粗糙程度较小,且主要由颗粒状物质构成。稀释平板涂布法分离出各生物滤池中发挥主要作用的微生物共3种,各系统菌落数量有差异,但种类相同。3种腐殖填料生物滤池在进水有机物浓度为500 mg/L及1000 mg/L时均有较理想的有机物去除效率。3种腐殖填料生物滤池中泥炭构筑的腐殖填料生物滤池有机物比降解速率最小,因而微生物比增长速率最小,微生物增长和自身氧化最易趋向于动态平衡,对应的饱和水力渗透系数最大,滤池最不易发生堵塞,最有利于腐殖填料生物滤池长期稳定运行,证明泥炭是一种优良的生物介质。     

纳米生态基对水产养殖污水的处理效果

采用三因子四水平的正交设计,实验研究了纳米生态基在不同温度、溶解氧和水力停留时间下对水产养殖污水的处理效果,确定了纳米生态基处理养殖污水的最佳条件。结果表明,含氨氮和亚硝氮浓度较高的模拟养殖污水用纳米生态基挂膜,所需时间约为22 d。纳米生态基对氨氮的去除效果明显,平均去除率达到93.5%。对氨氮去除率的影响程度,水力停留时间>温度>溶解氧。当温度为30℃,DO为5.43 mg/L,HRT为0.33 h时,纳米生态基对氨氮的处理能力最佳,去除率达到94.6%。纳米生态基对亚硝氮的平均去除率为69.3%。对亚硝氮去除率的影响程度,水力停留时间>溶解氧>温度。当温度为21℃,DO为6.40 mg/L,HRT为0.33 h时,纳米生态基对亚硝氮的处理能力最佳,去除率为71.5%。纳米生态基处理养殖污水的最佳条件:温度为30℃,DO为6.40 mg/L,HRT为0.33 h。     

不同填料载体生物膜对微囊藻毒素的去除效果

利用自行设计的生物膜培养装置,通过对4种不同填料载体进行连续曝气循环培养生物膜,对湖水中的溶解态微囊藻毒素(MCs)的去除作用进行了研究。结果表明,填料载体上生物膜从形成到稳定大约需要3周;生物膜形成后对MCs的去除效率由高到低的顺序是:颗粒活性炭柱>多密孔球型滤料柱>塑料悬浮填料柱>陶瓷滤球柱。在实验水质条件下,当水力停留时间(HRT)=5 h,进水MCs浓度为21.5～47.25μg/L时,颗粒活性炭、多密孔球型滤料柱对MCs的去除率最高可达100%,塑料悬浮填料柱对MC-LR和MC-RR的去除率分别为70%和88%。当HRT=2.5 h时,塑料悬浮填料柱对MC-RR的去除率为MC-LR的2倍。生物膜对MCs的降解效果随温度(5～20℃)和溶解氧的升高而增加。塑料悬浮填料作为合适的生物膜挂膜填料载体对水源水的生物预处理具有良好的应用前景。     

潜流人工湿地水力学特性及工程设计

以净化低污染水体的潜流人工湿地水力学特性工程设计为重点,系统开展了室内外实验研究,并利用Peelet数分析了水平潜流人工湿地碎石床渗流返混程度。结果表明,潜流人工湿地集水花管孔口出流计算、基质填料内渗流计算、碎石床平均水力停留时间计算可分别借鉴薄壁孔口恒定淹没出流、线性或非线性渗流、活塞流理论;但受工程实际条件及运行淤堵等影响,工程实测结果均小于理论计算值。基于室内外实验成果,提出一套包括集配水系统水力计算、填料内渗流计算、平均水力停留时间计算在内的潜流人工湿地水力学特性计算方法和参数选择,可为人工湿地技术的工程设计提供借鉴。     

土柱淋洗法修复铬污染土壤的水力梯度优化试验

针对重金属污染土壤的修复,淋洗法是一种比较成熟的方式,但目前研究主要聚焦于淋洗剂的选择,而关于水力停留时间对淋洗效果影响的研究相对较少.水力梯度是影响水力停留时间的重要因素,优化水力梯度能够缩短修复周期,降低淋洗成本,有效提高淋洗效率,为现场淋洗修复工程应用提供参考.本文针对人工制备的不同质地的铬污染土壤进行了土柱淋洗...