Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.     

Validation of a hybrid life-cycle inventory analysis method

The life-cycle inventory analysis step of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) may currently suffer from several limitations, mainly concerned with the use of incomplete and unreliable data sources and methods of assessment. Many past LCA studies have used traditional inventory analysis methods, namely process analysis and input-output analysis. More recently, hybrid inventory analysis methods have been developed, combining these two traditional methods in an attempt to minimise their limitations. In light of recent improvements, these hybrid methods need to be compared and validated, as these too have been considered to have several limitations. This paper evaluates a recently developed hybrid inventory analysis method which aims to improve the limitations of previous methods. It was found that the truncation associated with process analysis can be up to 87%, reflecting the considerable shortcomings in the quantity of process data currently available. Capital inputs were found to account for up to 22% of the total inputs to a particular product. These findings suggest that current best-practice methods are sufficiently accurate for most typical applications, but this is heavily dependent upon data quality and availability. The use of input-output data assists in improving the system boundary completeness of life-cycle inventories. However, the use of input-output analysis alone does not always provide an accurate model for replacing process data. Further improvements in the quantity of process data currently available are needed to increase the reliability of life-cycle inventories.     

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Seminatural Wetlands and Activated Sludge Wastewater-Treatment Systems

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to evaluate the competitiveness of seminatural Free Water Surface (FWS) wetlands compared to traditional wastewater-treatment plants. Six scenarios of the service costs of three FWS wetlands and three different wastewater-treatment plants based on active sludge processes were compared. The six scenarios were all equally effective in their wastewater-treatment capacity. The service costs were estimated using real accounting data from an experimental wetland and by means of a market survey. Some assumptions had to be made to perform the analysis. A reference wastewater situation was established to solve the problem of the different levels of dilution that characterize the inflow water of the different systems; the land purchase cost was excluded from the analysis, considering the use of public land as shared social services, and an equal life span for both seminatural and traditional wastewater-treatment plants was set. The results suggest that seminatural systems are competitive with traditional biotechnological systems, with an average service cost improvement of 2.1-fold to 8-fold, according to the specific solution and discount rate. The main improvement factor was the lower maintenance cost of the seminatural systems, due to the self-regulating, low artificial energy inputs and the absence of waste to be disposed. In this work, only the waste-treatment capacity of wetlands was considered as a parameter for the economic competitiveness analysis. Other goods/services and environmental benefits provided by FWS wetlands were not considered.

Community analysis in stream biomonitoring: what we measure and what we don't

Diatom assemblages from 83 epilithic samples taken from the Mesta River, Bulgaria, were regressed against three sets of predictor variables, i.e. environmental, spatial, and temporal. Redundancy analysis (RDA) of species and environmental data explained 36% of the diatom variance and extracted several important gradients of species distribution, associated with a downstream increase in nutrient levels, pH, temperature, and organic pollution. The inclusion of spatial and temporal variables in the RDA model captured additional 24% of the diatom variance and revealed three more gradients, a spatial gradient represented by higher order polynomial terms of latitude and longitude, and two temporal gradients of annual and seasonal variation. Partial RDAs demonstrated that the unique contribution of each predictor set to the explained diatom variance was the highest in the spatial dataset (16%), followed by the environmental (9%), and the temporal (7%) datasets. The remaining 28% of the variance was explained by the covariance of the predictor sets. This suggests that in biomonitoring of single stream basins, the cheap and simple account of space and time would explain most of the variance in assemblage composition obviating the necessity of expensive and time-consuming environmental assessments. The nature of the underlying environmental mechanisms can be easily inferred from the diatom composition itself.     

Deficit analysis: service capacity assessment and planning in developing countries – case study in the Philippines

Current demand analysis methods do not formally cover the case of chronic deficits in quantity or quality of water and sanitation services. These services include drinking water supply (DWS), wastewater and sewage treatment (WST), and municipal solid waste management (MSW). Formal analysis of this case would, at minimum, define the deficit state and evaluate appropriate options for reducing it. This paper proposes for a formal analytical model for municipal sanitation systems (MSS) that operate with deficits in at least one of the constituent services of DWS, WST, or MSW. The model introduces definitions and notation for describing the deficit state for conducting demand analysis on municipal sanitation systems. This model of demand analysis for systems with chronic deficits will hereinafter be referred to as deficit analysis. A case study for Bacoor, Philippines is presented as an example.     

天津开发区供水系统地震反应分析

用天津开发区供水系统作为实例,研究了地震作用下该系统的震害,及震后供水功失效状态。实例研究表明,所采用的最新研制的供水系统地震反应分析软件（ＳＰＡＷＧＩＳ）是可靠的。同时还证明,该软件所基于的方法,包括震害预测专家系统及失效流分析等方法是正确的。     

20世纪重大自然灾害评析

人类在科学技术上取得了辉煌成绩的同时,在认识自然和改造自然方面也得到了才识和新的认识,这一教训主要是来自自然灾害。根据收集到的全球自然灾害有关数据,对２０世纪全球主要自然灾害特征分布特点进行了分析,并对其成因提出了看法。     

隐伏断裂的地气测量及其意义

传统概念的地气测量是指地下上升到地表并扩散到大气空间的天然状态气体 ,如CO2 、CH4 、Rn、Hg、H2 等。近十多年的研究证实地气还包含着新的内涵 ,即地壳岩石以及地表土壤中还存着痕量的金属与非金属气体 ,通过捕集这些气体 ,可以获得更多的深部地质构造、矿床信息。据报导 ,国内外的研究主要是在已知矿床上做的正演研究。本文是在已知隐伏断层构造上方地表 ,试验金属与非金属地气存在的可能性。     

Optimal Design of a Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Monitoring Network in a Metropolitan Region Using Kaohsiung, Taiwan as an Example

An air quality monitoring network (AQMN) usually performs the basic function of assessment of regional air quality and demonstration of compliance with ambient air quality standards in an urban area. Different pollutants, however, may present different characteristic variabilities due to their specific emission patterns, rates of diffusion, and transport and transformation behaviors. But the costs of siting in a pollutant-specific monitoring network would be higher than that for a common network with respect to several pollutants monitored simultaneously. This paper presents a survey of multi-pollutant design principles and optimal searches for siting patterns of an AQMN using both simulation and optimization models as a combined tool. While conservative, quasi-stable, and reactive pollutants are considered in the design principles, cost, coverage effectiveness, and spatial correlation characteristics are included in the multi-criteria decision making process. For illustrative purpose, a series of technical settings and two types of objectives were examined in the case study for the city of Kaohsiung in Taiwan.