How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?

Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.     

人工快渗一体化设备在农村污水处理中的应用

针对农村污水的特点,结合湖北十堰地区农村污水处理工程案例,分析了以人工快渗技术为核心的一体化设备在实际应用中的运行效果和工艺优势。经过实际运行监测,工程处理出水主要水质指标可达到GB 18918—2002《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》一级A排放标准,并且该工艺设备具有运行成本低、抗冲击负荷能力强、运行管理方便等优点,可有效地解决目前农村地区由于资金、技术、人才等因素限制造成的污水处理能力低和管理水平低的问题,是一种适合我国农村地区污水处理的工艺设备。     

关于渗透通风条件建筑结构对室内PM2.5浓度水平影响评价模型探讨

我国京津冀地区近年频遭大气PM_2.5污染侵扰,相关研究表明,既使关闭建筑外窗,大气中PM_2.5仍可以通过渗透通风方式进入室内污染环境.为定量评价建筑渗透通风及无室内污染源条件下建筑结构（如外窗缝隙结构、房间建筑结构等）对室内ρ（PM_2.5）的影响规律,基于北京市东城区、朝阳区6个不同建筑结构的房间室内外ρ（PM_2.5）实时监测数据,重点比较分析了建筑结构对室内外ρ（PM_2.5）关联特性的影响规律.此外,根据颗粒物穿透特性及沉降特性机理,提出了反映建筑外窗缝隙结构（如缝高、缝深）的无量纲特征参数A_P与反映房间建筑结构（如层高、开间、进深）的无量纲特征参数A_k.在前期提出的室内ρ（PM_2.5）预测模型基础上,进一步构建了二者（A_P与A_k）对室内ρ（PM_2.5）影响的评价模型,并通过实测数据验证了模型的正确性.结果表明:当室外PM_2.5污染程度与气象条件一定时,建筑结构对I/O[室内外ρ（PM_2.5）之比]影响较大,其范围在0.4~0.7之间;随着建筑外窗气密性等级的提高,对应室内ρ（PM_2.5）呈显著的下降趋势.建筑外窗缝隙结构对室内ρ（PM_2.5）影响程度远大于房间建筑结构,敏感性分析结果表明,当建筑外窗缝高每降低50%或缝深每提高50%,对应室内ρ（PM_2.5）约可下降33.6%与31.9%.研究显示,气密性等级较高的建筑外窗缝隙缝高往往较小、缝深较长,渗透通风条件下对控制室内ρ（PM_2.5）水平作用更显著。      

生态高负荷土地快速渗滤系统处理猪场废水的效能及微生态

以经过厌氧反应器处理后的猪场废水为研究对象,探讨了新型生态高负荷土地快速渗滤系统对废水中COD、氨氮及总氮的去除情况;同时分析了该系统中的微生物群落结构以及过氧化氢酶、脲酶、硝酸盐还原酶的含量.结果表明,在水力负荷为11 cm·d~(-1)、进水COD为700 mg·L~(-1)左右的条件下,一级土地渗滤柱与二级土地渗滤柱对COD的去除率分别为78.8%与63.0%,总去除率达到了92.6%;而当水力负荷增大到22 cm·d~(-1)时,总的COD去除率仍在90.0%以上;该系统对于氨氮的去除更为显著,去除率可达99%左右.一级土地快速渗滤系统中上、中、下部的过氧化氢酶含量分别为1.899、0.990、0.323 m L·g~(-1),表明猪场废水中的有机物主要在该系统的上部与中部得以去除;二级土地快速渗滤系统上、中、下部的硝酸盐还原酶含量分别是3.453、3.831、1.971 m L·g~(-1),表明脱氮作用主要发生二级土地快速渗滤系统的上部与中部.该土地快速渗滤系统中微生物以Gram Negative与Gram Positive为主,特别是在二级土地快速渗滤系统中,AM Fungi与Actinomycetes占有一定比例,为猪场废水中难降解有机物的去除提供了保障.     

高碳氮负荷下同时脱氮除碳好氧颗粒污泥研究

在4 L反应器中,以补加葡萄糖和硫酸铵的猪场废水为基质,不接种活性污泥,加入粉末状活性炭对废水土著微生物进行预固定.通过批次进水并控制运行条件（逐渐提高COD、NH 4＋-N负荷、缩短沉降时间、提高曝气量）培养同时脱氮除碳好氧颗粒污泥,研究了该好氧颗粒污泥的脱氮除碳功能及对高碳氮负荷冲击的响应.结果表明,成熟好氧颗粒污泥为土黄色不规则球状,粒径为0.5～3.5 mm.COD和NH 4＋-N负荷分别在4.80～12.6 kg.（m3.d）-1和0.217～0.503 kg.（m3.d）-1时,好氧颗粒污泥对COD的去除率〉94%,对NH 4＋-N的去除率〉98%.当COD和NH 4＋-N负荷分别提高至15.70 kg.（m3.d）-1和0.723kg.（m3.d）-1并运行4 d后,反应器内絮体激增,颗粒沉降变差并开始破碎,NH 4＋-N去除率下降至81.6%.排出部分污泥并降低负荷继续运行,颗粒污泥的NH 4＋-N去除率可迅速恢复至98%以上.本研究培养的好氧颗粒污泥具有良好的同时脱氮除碳功能,可以耐受高COD和NH 4＋-N负荷的双重冲击.     

污水地下渗滤系统强化脱氮试验研究

构建了3套以5%炉渣+95%草甸棕壤为基质的地下渗滤系统室内模拟试验装置,在水力负荷为0.1m3/(m2·d)条件下进行了生活污水处理试验.结果表明,当分流位置位于系统内110cm处,分流比为1:1时,可提高地下渗滤对总氮的去除效率,总氮的去除率由59.37%提高至68.41%,且对COD和总磷的去除效果没有影响.     

紫色丘陵区不同弃土弃渣下垫面入渗特征及影响因素

采用环刀法研究了紫色丘陵区不同碎石含量弃土弃渣下垫面的入渗特征及影响因素.结果表明,不同弃土弃渣下垫面入渗性能随碎石含量的增加而差异显著,其中,碎石含量为40%的弃土弃渣下垫面初始入渗率、稳定入渗率及平均入渗率分别是土质弃渣下垫面的1.30、1.13和1.54倍.不同下垫面初始入渗率和稳定入渗率与弃渣初始含水率、容重呈显著负相关,与下垫面总孔隙度、非毛管孔隙度呈显著正相关.其中,初始入渗率与初始含水率相关系数在-0.689~-0.912之间,稳定入渗率与容重相关系数为-0.745~-0.999,且稳定入渗率随非毛管孔隙度增加而显著提高.Horton模型对不同弃土弃渣下垫面入渗率与时间拟合的可决系数在0.899以上,且Horton模型计算入渗率与实测入渗率的相对误差在0.07%~6.60%之间,是紫色丘陵区分析不同弃土弃渣下垫面入渗过程的适宜性模型.研究结果可为紫色丘陵区弃土弃渣水土流失量预测和评价提供技术参数.     

Long-range atmospheric transport of three toxaphene congeners across Europe. Modeling by chained single-box FATEMOD program

Background, aims, and scope  Since toxaphene (polychlorocamphene, polychloropinene, or strobane) mixtures were applied for massive insecticide use in the 1960s to replace the use of DDT, some of their congeners have been found at high latitudes far away from the usage areas. Especially polychlorinated bornanes have demonstrated dominating congeners transported by air up to the Arctic areas. Environmental fate modeling has been applied to monitor this phenomenon using parallel zones of atmosphere around the globe as interconnected environments. These zones, shown in many meteorological maps, however, may not be the best way to configure atmospheric transport in air trajectories. The latter could also be covered by connecting a chain of simple model boxes. We aim to study this alternative approach by modeling the trajectory chain using catchment boxes of our FATEMOD model. Polychlorobornanes analyzed in biota of the Barents Sea offered one case to study this modeling alternative, while toxaphene has been and partly still is used massively at southern East Europe and around rivers flowing to the Aral Sea. Materials and methods  Pure model substances of three polychlorobornanes (toxaphene congeners P26, P50, and P62) were synthesized, their environmentally important thermal properties measured by differential scanning calorimetry, as evaluated from literature data, and their temperature dependences estimated by the QSPR programs VPLEST, WATSOLU, and TDLKOW. The evaluated property parameters were used to model their atmospheric long-range transport from toxaphene heavy usage areas in Ukraine and Aral/SyrDarja/AmuDarja region areas, through East Europe and Northern Norway (Finnmarken) to the Barents Sea. The time period used for the emission model was June 1997. Usual weather conditions in June were applied in the model, which was constructed by chaining FATEMOD model boxes of the catchment’s areas along assumed maximal air flow trajectories. Analysis of the three chlorobornanes in toxaphene mixtures function as a basis for the estimates of emission levels caused by its usage. High estimate (A) was taken from contents in a Western product chlorocamphene and low estimate (B) from mean contents in Russian polychloroterpene products to achieve modeled water concentrations. Bioaccumulation to analyzed lipid of aquatic biota at the target region was estimated by using statistical calculation for persistent organic pollutants in literature. Results  The results from model runs A and B (high and low emission estimate) for levels in sea biota were compared to analysis results of samples taken in August 1997 at Barents Sea. The model results (ng g⁻¹ lw): 4–95 in lipid of planktovores and 7–150 in lipid of piscivores, were in fair agreement with the analysis results from August 1997: 21–31 in Themisto libellula (chatka), 26–42 in Boreocadus saida (Polar cod), and 5–27 in Gadus morhua (cod) liver. Discussion  The modeling results indicate that the application of chained simple multimedia catchment boxes on predicted trajectory is a useful method for estimation of volatile airborne persistent chemical exposures to biota in remote areas. For hazard assessment of these pollutants, their properties, especially temperature dependences, must be estimated by a reasonable accuracy. That can be achieved by using measurements in laboratory with pure model compounds and estimation of properties by thermodynamic QSPR methods. The property parameters can be validated by comparing their values at an environmental temperature range with measured or QSPR-estimated values derived by independent methods. The chained box method used for long-range air transport modeling can be more suitable than global parallel zones modeling used earlier, provided that the main airflow trajectories and properties of transported pollutants are predictable enough. Conclusions  Long-range air transport modeling of persistent, especially photo-resistant organic compounds using a chain of joint simple boxes of catchment’s environments is a feasible method to predict concentrations of pollutants at the target area. This is justified from model results compared with analytical measurements in Barents Sea biota in August 1997: three of six modeled values were high and the other three low compared to the analysis results. The order of magnitude level was similar in both modeled (planktovore and piscivore) and observed (chatka and polar cod) values of lipid samples. The obtained results were too limited to firm validation but are sufficient to justify feasibility of the method, which prompts one to perform more studies on this modeling system. Recommendations and perspectives  For assessment of the risk of environmental damages, chemical fate determination is an essential tool for chemical control, e.g., for EU following the REACH rules. The present conclusion of applicability of the chained single-box multimedia modeling can be validated by further studies using analyses of emissions and target biota in various other cases. To achieve useful results, fate models built with databases having automatic steps for most calculations and outputs accessible to all chemical control professionals are essential. Our FATEMOD program catchments at environments and compound properties listed in the database represent a feasible tool for local, regional, and, according our present test results, for global exposure predictions. As an extended use of model, emission estimates can be achieved by reversed modeling from analysis results of samples corresponding to the target area. This article is dedicated to the memory of Professor Alexander B Terentiev (who passed away in November 2006), our true friend. With his Institute of Organo-Element Compounds, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, he was an important main organizer of the six joint Finnish–Russian seminars (every third year since 1989) on the field (‘Chemistry and Ecology of Organo-Element Compounds’). He prompted us especially to search properties and environmental fates for various polyhalogen compounds. We remember him for his friendly character and great sense of humor.     

三级串联人工快渗系统处理养殖废水

人工快速渗滤系统（constructed rapid infiltration,CRI）是在传统的污水快速渗透系统上发展起来的一种新的生物处理方法。采用猪粪浸泡污水模拟实际猪场处理系统的厌氧出水,研究三级串联人工快渗系统对其污染物的去除效果。试验结果表明,三级串联系统对废水COD、NH3N的去除率稳定在81%和94.5%,出水均满足了《畜禽养殖行业污染物排放标准》（GB18596-2001）的要求,同时三级串联系统还可以有效预防系统的堵塞。     

生态土壤渗滤系统启动周期研究

利用室内模拟试验装置,考察了4种生态土壤渗滤系统在0.1 m3/(m2·d)的水力负荷条件下对生活污水中TP、COD和NH3-N的去除效果及启动周期; 同时对整个系统及同类生态工艺启动周期的判断方法做了探讨.研究结果表明,生态土壤渗滤系统对TP、COD和NH3-N的启动周期分别为15～27 d、24～40 d和24～26 d; 土壤渗滤系统对TP的启动周期最短,对COD的启动周期最长; 处理系统启动周期的判断原则是综合考察系统对主要污染物各自的启动周期,以最长的作为系统启动周期.4组试验中,1#和2#系统的启动周期为40 d; 3#和4#的为24 d.