Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km² if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km² under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km² under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km², if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km². Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km².A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.     

企业环境等级评价制度中的多方博弈辨析

企业环境等级评价制度将公众第三方引入环境管理体系,着重分析三方在管理中的各自作用,以及如何实现利益的最大化。公众的参与是核心,政府引导是保证企业环境等级评价制度顺利和健康实施的基础,而企业可以通过环境等级评价提高企业环境信息的透明度,并进一步利用市场增大企业的利益。     

基于矿山安全专家系统安全信息采集及特征研究

把人工智能专家系统应用到矿山安全领域,模拟专家的经验评估安全生产环境,实现矿山最大安全化管理。安全专家系统的人机界面是系统与用户沟通的桥梁。友好的人机界面信息采集,既可以提高使用者的工作效率,也可以提高输出结构的准确性。针对安全专家系统在金属非金属矿山研究较少的特点,从系统安全工程相关原理出发,引入了人工智能安全专家系统,并从总图布置单元、开拓单元、采掘单元、提升运输单元、供电通讯单元、通风单元六个方面,探讨了界面信息采集的有关理论。根据给出的人机界面信息采集流程,得到了能够最大程度表征矿山安全的信息。为专家系统推理机后续的推理工作提供了一条有效的途径,最终实现人-机交互过程智能化的目的。     

Using a GIS Model to Identify Internally Drained Areas and Runoff Contribution in a Glaciated Watershed1

Macholl, Jacob A., Katherine A. Clancy, and Paul M. McGinley, 2011. Using a GIS Model to Identify Internally Drained Areas and Runoff Contribution in a Glaciated Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):114‐125. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00495.x Abstract: Glaciated watersheds are not easily delineated using geographic information systems’ elevation‐based algorithms, especially where stream networks are disconnected and there are large regions of internally drained areas. This paper presents the results of an analysis using the Potential Contributing Source Area (PCSA) model to identify potential contributing areas, defined as areas from which runoff is physically capable of reaching a drainage network. The investigation was conducted to define the potential contributing areas in a glaciated region of northwest Wisconsin. The curve number (CN) method was used to predict runoff volumes in the watershed. The streamflows of four tributaries were measured and the runoff portion of the hydrograph quantified to be compared with runoff estimates calculated using the potential contributing areas and the traditional catchment area. Runoff producing events occurred, but the use of area‐weighted CN values was unsuccessful in modeling runoff due to all precipitation depths during the study period falling below the initial abstraction. A distributed CN approach provided runoff estimates that were generally better using the potential contributing areas compared with using the traditional catchment area. The extent of the minimum contributing area, estimated for a range of precipitation events, was found to be substantially less than the potential contributing areas, suggesting that the PCSA model delimits the maximum boundary of potential contributing areas.     

国际生态学研究发展态势文献计量分析

目前,全球的生态环境问题已经引起了各国政府和人民的高度关注,而生态学研究可以为人类与自然生态系统的共存提供理论依据和行动指南。利用Thomson Data Analyzer、NetDraw和Aureka等分析工具,结合Pathfinder算法,对SCIE和SSCI数据库中国际生态学研究相关文献进行统计分析,发现：北美、欧洲、澳大利亚等国及其研究机构在生态学领域的论文影响力较大,论文质量较高;美国是全球生态学研究合作网络的中心,其次是英国和德国;在机构层面上,加州大学戴维斯分校和马普学会是两个比较明显的合作中心;我国在生态学研究领域发文量上具有一定的优势,但论文总体质量仍有待继续提高,目前我国在生态学领域的主要合作国家有美国、英国、加拿大、德国、日本、澳大利亚和法国;2008—2010年国际生态学研究热点主要集中在生物多样性、气候变化、基因变异、物种间相互作用和性选择等研究领域。     

1994—2008年河南省植被净第一性生产力及其时空变化

基于地理信息系统和卫星遥感技术,利用地面气象数据、遥感数据和土地分类等数据,根据河南省实际植被覆盖和自然地理情况,应用改进的CASA模型估算了1994—2008年间河南省植被净第一性生产力及其时空变化。结果表明：河南省植被净第一性生产力与年均温度的相关性好于植被年净第一性生产力与年降水量和年均太阳辐射之间的相关性,温度是限制河南省植被净第一性生产力的主要因子;15年来河南省植被净第一性生产力呈增加趋势,但不明显;河南省主要植被类型的净第一性生产力从大到小依次为林地、灌丛、耕地、草地、其它植被,它们随时间的变化趋势极为一致。     

基于信息熵的垫片密封模糊可靠度

在充分考虑垫片密封的随机性和模糊性的基础上,提出了垫片密封模糊可靠性的概念.基于信息熵理论,按模糊泄漏率导出垫片密封的模糊可靠度计算公式,并用算例说明了公式的应用.     

重庆市地质灾害孕灾环境分区研究

为探索重庆市地质灾害孕灾环境分布情况,以重庆市主要地质灾害为研究对象,在分析孕灾因子基础上,选取暴雨强度、地貌条件、地质岩性、年均降雨量、植被覆盖度和地质构造条件等6个因子,构建地质灾害孕灾环境分区指标体系,利用层次分析法(AHP)和专家效度相耦合方法确定各指标权重,并建立孕灾环境综合指数评价模型。在ArcGIS软件平台支持下,以1 km×1 km网格尺寸为单位精细获取各指标分析数据,计算得到各网格孕灾环境综合指数值,并根据该值进行重庆市地质灾害孕灾环境等级区划分。结果表明:重庆市地质灾害孕灾环境综合指数值在43～84之间,孕灾分区主要集中在高易发区和中易发区,其中危险区1.29×104 km2,占总面积的15.62%;高易发区4.42×104 km2,占53.68%;中易发区2.38×104 km2,占28.85%;低易发区0.15×104 km2,占1.85%。     

基于二元语义的职业健康安全管理体系绩效评价

为提高职业健康安全管理体系(OHSMS)绩效和职业健康安全绩效,根据OHSMS绩效评价的重要性,提出基于二元语义的OHSMS绩效评价模型。研究科学合理的评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法(AHP)和灰色关联分析法(GRA)确定主客观权重,再运用乘法集成法确定组合权重,作为评价指标的最终权重,运用二元语义的集结算子,计算OHSMS绩效评价指标的综合值,取得最终的评价结果。结果表明,基于二元语义的OHSMS绩效评价将专家经验与定量计算相结合,合理地处理许多因素的不确定性,通过确定不符合项和改进措施,持续改进OHSMS绩效。     

基于二元语义和AHP法的矿山职业危害综合评价方法

为科学评价矿山企业职业危害风险,提出一种基于二元语义和层次分析法(AHP)的矿山职业危害风险综合评价方法。首先,在分析企业生产活动的过程和相关文献的基础上,应用相关性分析方法,优化建立地下矿山职业危害风险评价体系;其次,在分析二元语义理论的基础上,给出原始数据标准化处理方法和详细的建模步骤;最后,通过实例进行应用。实例分析结果表明:利用语言短语处理定性信息的准确性高;职业危害风险的负面因素主要为粉尘等致灾因子,通过提高作业者素质和安全管理水平可大大降低其风险。