中国环境监测信息产品的主要问题及发展方向

基于中国环境监测信息产品的发展现状,针对信息产品生产流程的监测数据生成、监测数据加工、信息产品服务3个阶段分别指出存在的主要问题,并提出未来需全面提升环境监测信息产品的科学性、准确性、敏感度、服务对象满意度以及信息供给普惠度。     

Population Distribution and Influencing Factors Based on ESDA

Based on the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) technique and geographic information system(GIS) platform,with statistic data of counties in 2005,this paper confirms that there is a large population density gap between counties in 2005 because the Gini coefficient is 0.55.Population distribution does not change a lot during the past decades,and the southeast China is still much more densely populated than the northwest China.The global spatial autocorrelation of population distribution is obvious because Moran’s I scores 0.42 and local spatial autocorrelation is partly significant.Climate and elevation are still the main natural influencing factors.Meanwhile industrial structure and transportation significantly influence population distribution.Different combinations of natural factors have different effects on population distribution.For a long term,climate and terrain factor stability affect population distribution.But its influence will be weakened by progress of technology.Economic development is the main factor that changes population distribution for a short term.     

基于博弈论的突发性水污染事件治污决策模型

针对当前严重的水污染问题,采用博弈论对突发性水污染事件治污决策进行了研究,为事件应急管理提供理论支撑与决策支持。基于经典博弈论构建了信息不对称下突发性水污染事件中管理部门与企业之间的信号博弈模型,对信号发送方企业的类型空间、信号空间和信号接收方管理部门的行动空间进行假设,求得了模型的精炼贝叶斯均衡解,并对不同参数取值下的均衡解进行了分析。基于有限理性建立了企业群治污决策进化博弈模型,通过求解模型复制动态方程得到了不同参数取值下的进化稳定策略,并对模型进化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:对突发性水污染事件进行治污决策时,通过公开企业信息与信誉,提高对企业是否采取治污策略的奖惩力度,采用现代先进信息技术降低企业治污与管理部门检查的成本等方式有助于企业采取治污策略。     

“十二五”期间秦皇岛市加强环境应急能力建设的对策

结合秦皇岛市沿海旅游城市的实际情况,指出了环境应急管理中存在的机构不健全、人员不固定、设备和经费缺乏等问题,并从队伍、装备、预案、演习、应急指挥、危险化学品运输等10个方面提出了对策,以期为环境应急管理工作提供参考。     

区域用水结构演变规律与调控对策研究

我国水资源严重短缺,在新的形势下,必须根据经济发展调整用水结构.本文以地处西北干旱区的榆林市为例,通过收集榆林市1990-2005年国民经济各行业用水量,结合信息熵原理,计算出不同年份用水量熵值及优势度动态演化情况.结果表明,榆林市用水系统熵值由1990年的0.569增加到2005年的0.667,总体呈上升趋势,表明榆林市用水结构趋向无序.同时,系统的均衡度也呈增加趋势,这表明当地用水系统在趋于无序发展的同时,用水系统的均衡程度有所提高,系统均衡性增强.从地区来看,南六县的用水系统熵值要高于北六县,且南六县用水系统熵值一直处于下降趋势,北六县则在波动中表现出一定的上升趋势,这与南六县长期从事特色农业,产业结构相对比较稳定,而北六县主要发展工业,导致用水结构中农业、工业、生活用水结构变化较大有关.最后,结合榆林市实际,提出"南护水源,北抑需求"的总体调控思路,通过建立权威、高效、协调的管理机制,推进水管理体制改革、加强立法和执法监督,规范水资源管理行为、因地制宜,调整和优化产业结构, 大力发展生态型低耗水产业、明确水权、建立水市场,制定合理水价、广泛宣传,积极引导,改变用水观念等措施,不断调整用水结构,最终实现经济社会可持续发展.     

海洋灾害中政府承灾力脆弱性研究

信息扩散方法可以将一个分明值的样本点变成一个模糊集,把单值点变成集值样本点.这种方法对于海洋灾害呈现的非连续、样本点个数少的情况尤其适用,可以最大程度挖掘数据本身携带的信息.本文以市级区域作为研究对象,利用信息扩散原理建立政府承灾力脆弱性评价模型,通过对政府承灾系数的超越概率分析来评价海洋灾害中政府承灾力的脆弱性.进而对海洋灾害政府承灾力的脆弱度进行系统聚类分析,并以山东省为例进行实证研究,最终得到山东省沿海各市风暴潮灾害政府承灾力脆弱度的风验区划图.研究结果表明,威海、烟台、东营、日照的政府承灾力脆弱度较重,青岛、滨州次之,而潍坊的政府脆弱度最小.究其差异原因,各市不尽相同,主要表现在各市灾害发生概率、经济发展水平以及重视程度的不同.长期来看,海洋灾害中政府承灾力的提高依赖于最大程度减少海洋灾害带来的经济损失以及最大程度保障政府应对灾害的资金准备,为各级政府提高抗灾减灾能力提供了一定参考.     

电网环境保护管理信息系统的设计与实现

为了对输变电工程中的大量资料进行信息化动态管理,对电磁环境参数进行预测分析,为电网决策、管理、运行提供依据,建立电网环境保护信息管理系统。阐述系统的构建、实现及运用Matlab工具进行电磁环境参数预测模型的求解,通过系统集成完成信息管理和预测分析模型系统的开发,实现电网环境保护的决策分析。以可听噪声预测模型构建为例,在C#.NET平台上调用Matlab工具箱,实现了输电线路可听噪声的预测分析。     

Comparative distribution, sourcing, and chemical behavior of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in an estuary environment

PCDD/F and PCB field data (1041 samples) in five media (dissolved, suspended sediment, bed sediment, catfish, and blue crab) were studied to explore dual contaminant patterns in the Houston Ship Channel, Texas, USA. PCDD/Fs showed greater concentration than PCBs in suspended sediments while PCBs were higher in apparent dissolved (truly dissolved + DOC-associated), fish, and crab. PCDD/Fs at nearly all locations contributed more strongly to dioxin-like toxicity. The fraction of PCB TEQ was, however, enriched in biotic over abiotic media due in large part to the presence of PCB 126, which was mostly undetected in water and sediment and yet exhibited a BAF three times greater than 2,3,7,8-TCDD. Dissolved-suspended sediment and suspended-bed sediment relationships showed that (1) observed apparent dissolved concentration differences (as fraction of total water were mean 10% PCDD/Fs and 63% PCBs) can reasonably be explained by a four-phase partition model (truly dissolved, DOC-associated, suspended OC, and suspended BC) for PCBs but not for PCDD/Fs and (2) the contaminants behaved similarly in bed to suspended sediment concentration ratios (C_bed/C_susp) upstream of a major confluence but not downstream. PCA-cluster analysis pointed to the possibility that suspended sediment PCB contamination originates from resuspended bed sediment while PCDD/Fs in suspended sediment originates more probably from other sediment sources such as upstream wash load or air deposition. Finally, examinations of a congener marker ratio (PCB 209/206) seemed to indicate that a source of pure PCB 209 may exist in bed sediment near Patrick Bayou though the source was not completely localized.     

The impact of visual information on perceptions of water resource problems and management alternatives

To assess changes in human understanding and decision making, the paper examines (1) the influence of visual information on perceptions about groundwater management in Phoenix, Arizona and (2) the correlates and dimensions underlying people's views about water scarcity and mitigation strategies. While perceptions entrenched in ideologies are difficult to change, different types of information (three-dimensional versus two-dimensional) have distinct impacts on the perceived magnitude of problems compared to judgements about their causes and solutions. Overall, visual information may be especially useful for developing a shared understanding of problems and a collective vision for management alternatives. Additional implications of this study for fostering environmental awareness, policy support, and collaborative decision making are also discussed.     

环境科学数字图书馆信息资源建设中的著作权问题

针对数字图书馆信息资源建设中面临的著作权问题,依照著作权法等相关法律,分析了环境科学数字图书馆建设中涉及到的实体馆藏文献数字化、虚拟馆藏等著作权问题,并提出了完善相关法律、加强著作权集体管理体制、建立图书馆版权联盟等对策与措施。