我国流域监管中府际关系协调模式研究

我国流域水资源管理实行流域管理与行政区域管理相结合的管理体制,但目前我国的流域监管体制中中央部委之间的主管与协管的矛盾、中央部委与地方政府之间的统管与分管的矛盾以及地方政府间区域利益的矛盾使得当前我国流域管理效率低下,水环境质量不容乐观。在我国目前的府际关系模式下,以上的府际关系矛盾短时间内难以消除,本文认为我国的流域监管体制改革中应着力构建以组织间网络为核心、以科层机制为保障、以市场机制为辅助的复合型协调模式,设立流域协调委员会,从而实现流域的一体化管理。     

Does the risk of encountering lions influence African herbivore behaviour at waterholes?

A central question in the study of predator–prey relationships is to what extent prey behaviour is determined by avoidance of predators. Here, we test whether the long-term risk of encountering lions and the presence of lions in the vicinity influence the behaviour of large African herbivores at waterholes through avoidance of high-risk areas, increases in group size, changes in temporal niche or changes in the time spent in waterhole areas. In Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, we monitored waterholes to study the behaviour of nine herbivore species under different risks of encountering lions. We radio-collared 26 lions in the study area which provided the opportunity to monitor whether lions were present during observation sessions and to map longer-term seasonal landscapes of risk of encountering lions. Our results show that the preferred prey species for lions (buffalo, kudu and giraffe) avoided risky waterholes. Group size increased as encounter risk increased for only two species (wildebeest and zebra), but this effect was not strong. Interestingly, buffalo avoided the hours of the day which are dangerous when the long-term and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and all species showed avoidance of waterhole use at night times when lions were in the vicinity. This illustrates well how prey can make temporal adjustments to avoid dangerous periods coinciding with predator hunting. Additionally, many herbivores spent more time accessing water to drink when the long- and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and they showed longer potential drinking time when the long-term risk of encountering lions was high, suggesting higher levels of vigilance. This study illustrates the diversity of behavioural adjustments to the risk of encountering a predator and how prey respond differently to temporal variations in this risk.     

Study of Cause-and-Effect Relationships in the Formation of Biocenoses: Their Use for the Control of Eutrophication

The cause-and-effect relationships existing in freshwater biogeocenoses and changing with time are conventionally divided into three groups: direct, directly mediated, and indirect. The possibility of using the indirect relationships for the control over natural systems is exemplified by a new scheme of eutrophication control and water quality improvement.     

人尿中1-羟基芘浓度与多环芳烃日暴露量的关系

采集并分析了 10 0名不吸烟成人 2 4h的呼吸带空气 (PM10 和气相 )、食物及尿液样品 ,建立了尿中1 羟基芘与多环芳烃日暴露量的关系 结果表明 :晨尿 1 羟基芘 (μmol·mol肌酐 -1)浓度与芘、苯并 (a )芘等 13种多环芳烃日暴露量的对数线性回归方程拟合度R2 达 0 12— 0 6 7,方程各项参数也均达到了显著性水平 (P <0 0 0 1)     

应用模式识别法研究芳腈化合物结构与活性的关系

基于２３个芳腈衍生物对发光菌的毒性疚和一批结构参数，用模式识别法研究了结构与活性的关系。在化合物的生物活性类别与模式特征之间建立的３个类别判别函数对化合物活性类别的判别正确率达９１．３％，并为进一步的研究工作合理地挑选了４个代表性化合物。     

有机化合物厌氧生物降解性的测定和预测

测定有机物厌氧生物降解性的方法包括非特性参数和特性参数测定法。本文着重介绍有机物厌氧生物降解性的筛选测定法，以基团贡献法为基础，不外加其它理化参数的有机物结构与生物降解性关系的预测已经由简单的线性模型发展至专家系统和人工神经网络模型，并显示出极好的应用前景。     

Review and comparison of methods to study the contribution of variables in artificial neural network models

Convinced by the predictive quality of artificial neural network (ANN) models in ecology, we have turned our interests to their explanatory capacities. Seven methods which can give the relative contribution and/or the contribution profile of the input factors were compared: (i) the ‘PaD’ (for Partial Derivatives) method consists in a calculation of the partial derivatives of the output according to the input variables; (ii) the ‘Weights’ method is a computation using the connection weights; (iii) the ‘Perturb’ method corresponds to a perturbation of the input variables; (iv) the ‘Profile’ method is a successive variation of one input variable while the others are kept constant at a fixed value; (v) the ‘classical stepwise’ method is an observation of the change in the error value when an adding (forward) or an elimination (backward) step of the input variables is operated; (vi) ‘Improved stepwise a’ uses the same principle as the classical stepwise, but the elimination of the input occurs when the network is trained, the connection weights corresponding to the input variable studied is also eliminated; (vii) ‘Improved stepwise b’ involves the network being trained and fixed step by step, one input variable at its mean value to note the consequences on the error. The data tested in this study concerns the prediction of the density of brown trout spawning redds using habitat characteristics. The PaD method was found to be the most useful as it gave the most complete results, followed by the Profile method that gave the contribution profile of the input variables. The Perturb method allowed a good classification of the input parameters as well as the Weights method that has been simplified but these two methods lack stability. Next came the two improved stepwise methods (a and b) that both gave exactly the same result but the contributions were not sufficiently expressed. Finally, the classical stepwise methods gave the poorest results.     

QSAR计算中的分子连接性指数法

本文介绍了分子连接性指数法和原理及各阶指数的计算方法，以及在ＱＳＡＲ计算中的应用实例，并对特殊连接性指数的用法作了分析。     

The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.     

EFFECTS OF SIMULATED CLOUD SEEDING ON STREAMFLOW OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of five small watersheds in central Pennsylvania. Continuous hydrographs for the 6-month period, April to September 1964, were simulated. Synthesized rainfall cycles consisting of increasing rainfall by 10, 20, and 30 percent to simulate the effects of cloud seeding were processed through the watershed model to determine the effects on low flow augmentation. Other rainfall cycles used consisted of increasing every third storm by 30 percent and of developing a rainfall cycle by processing daily radiosonde data through a mathematical cumulus cloud model to obtain a prediction of rainfall following seeding. A comparison of actual and predicted hydrographs indicated that simulated cloud seeding resulted in significant monthly and seasonal water yields. In general, the results of the study appear to indicate that on a theoretical basis cloud seeding would be a feasible method of augmenting low stream-flow during the summer months on watersheds in the northern Appalachian region.