Bayesian model-based cluster analysis for predicting macrofaunal communities

To predict macrofaunal community composition from environmental data a two-step approach is often followed: (1) the water samples are clustered into groups on the basis of the macrofauna data and (2) the groups are related to the environmental data, e.g. by discriminant analysis. For the cluster analysis in step 1 many hard, seemingly arbitrary choices have to be made that nevertheless influence the solution (similarity measure, clustering strategy, number of clusters). The stability of the solution is often of concern, e.g. in clustering by the program. In the discriminant analysis of step 2 it can occur that a water sample is misclassified on the basis of the environmental data but on further inspection happens to be a borderline case in the cluster analysis. One would then rather reclassify such a sample and iterate the two steps. Bayesian latent class analysis is a flexible, extendable model-based cluster analysis approach that recently has gained popularity in the statistical literature and that has the potential to address these problems. It allows the macrofauna and environmental data to be modelled and analyzed in a single integrated analysis. An exciting extension is to incorporate in the analysis prior information on the habitat preferences of the macrofauna taxa such as is available in lists of indicator values. The output of the analysis is not a hard assignment of water samples to clusters but a probabilistic (fuzzy) assignment. The number of clusters is determined on the basis of the Bayes factor. A standard feature of the Bayesian method is to make predictions and to assess their uncertainty. We applied this approach to a data set consisting of 70 water samples, 484 macrofauna taxa and four environmental variables for which previously a five cluster solution had been proposed. The standard for Bayesian estimation, the Gibbs sampler, worked fine on a subset with only 12 selected taxa but did not converge on the full set with 484 taxa. This is due to many configurations in which the assignment probabilities are all very close to either 0 or 1. This convergence problem is comparable with the local optima problem in classical cluster optimization algorithms, including the EM algorithm used in Latent Gold, a Windows program for latent class analysis. The convergence problem needs to be solved before the benefits of Bayesian latent class analysis can come to fruition in this application. We discuss possible solutions.     

双酚A类似物雌激素干扰效应的定量结构-活性关系模型

由于双酚A(BPA)具有内分泌干扰等毒性效应,有些国家已经开始限制其在部分工业品生产中使用。一些双酚A类似物因用于替代BPA而被大量使用。因其与双酚A具有相似的分子结构,双酚A类似物是否也具有内分泌干扰等毒性效应受到越来越多的关注。采用逐步多元线性回归(MLR)方法,构建了可预测双酚A类似物雌激素效应的定量结构-活性关系模型。模型的决定系数R~2=0.899,去一法交叉验证系数Q_(LOO)~2=0.868,Bootstrapping验证系数Q_(BOOT)~2=0.755,均方根误差RMSE=0.339,表明模型具有较好的拟合优度、稳健性;验证集决定系数Q_(EXT)~2=0.921,外部验证系数Q_(EXT)~2=0.810,均方根误差RMSE=0.638,表明模型具有较好的预测能力。采用欧几里德距离方法和Wil iams图表征了模型应用域,依据分子描述符对模型进行了机理解释,并用所建模型,填补了22种其他双酚A类似物缺失的雌激素干扰效应数据。     

有机污染物的被动采样材料-水分配系数的QSAR研究

污染物的被动采样材料-水分配系数(K_(PW))是衡量被动采样器性能和进行优化的一个重要指标,由于实验方法难以逐个测定众多污染物的K_(PW)值,有必要发展其KP W预测方法。本研究选取聚乙烯(PE)、聚丙烯酸酯(PA)和硅橡胶(SR)3类常用的被动采样材料共7种,采用多元线性回归分析方法构建可用于K_(PW)预测的定量构效关系(QSAR)模型。所构建的QSAR模型具有良好的拟合优度(R2a dj介于0.806~0.989)、稳健性(Q2L O O和Q2B O O T分别介于0.786~0.988和0.773~0.801)和预测能力(R_(ext)~2和Q_(ext)~2分别介于0.769~0.989和0.757~0.982),可以用于预测烷烃、烯烃、芳香类、醇类、酮类、酯类、醚类等多种有机污染物的log KP W值。有机污染物的log KP W与分子Mc Gowan体积(Vx)、氯原子个数(n Cl)、环周长(Rperim)、多重键个数(n BM)、N,O极性贡献的拓扑极性表面积(TPSA(NO))、[-N(=)=]结构个数(Ndds N)和羟基个数(nROH)等参数有关。     

乙腈溶剂中单壁碳纳米管与常见有机化合物的相互作用

以单壁碳纳米管(SWCNTs)为固定相,采用高压匀浆法,制备HPLC色谱柱.测定乙腈相中18种有机化合物在SWCNTs色谱柱上的保留因子,研究SWCNTs与化合物的相互作用.结果表明,有机化合物取代基的种类和个数、杂原子的个数影响乙腈相中有机化合物与SWCNTs的相互作用.采用线性溶解能关系(LSER)定量表征SWCNTs与有机化合物的相互作用,所构建的LSER模型具有较强的拟合能力(R2=0.844)和稳健性(Q2LOO=0.768),发现π-/n-电子对作用和空穴/弥散作用是控制SWCNTs与有机化合物相互作用的主要因素.     

三峡库区城市化与生态环境耦合关系定量辨识

受人文社会规律支配的城市化过程与受自然规律制约的生态环境演化过程之间,通过种种复杂的胁迫与约束机制,具有双指数倒U型曲线的耦合演化规律性。如果以区域内不同城镇构成的空间样本来测算城市化与生态环境之间的耦合关系,其耦合曲线通常有以下5种型式：下降、正U、上升、倒U和再下降。该演化序列符合否定之否定的发展规律。通过相关分析、主成分分析和层次分析等方法,对三峡库区15个区县的城市化水平和生态环境状况作了综合评价,并在综合和分组两个层面对二者耦合关系进行了定量辨识。结果表明：通过空间样本反映的重庆库区城市化与生态环境耦合关系曲线为正U型,揭示出库区城市化与生态环境耦合演化的二元性;城市化与生态环境沿长江自西向东具有基本一致的变化趋势,说明现阶段库区城市化对生态环境的依赖性大于其破坏性。     

Food site residence time and female competitive relationships in wild gray-cheeked mangabeys (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lophocebus albigena</Emphasis>)

Authors of socioecological models propose that food distribution affects female social relationships in that clumped food resources, such as fruit, result in strong dominance hierarchies and favor coalition formation with female relatives. A number of Old World monkey species have been used to test predictions of the socioecological models. However, arboreal forest-living Old World monkeys have been understudied in this regard, and it is legitimate to ask whether predominantly arboreal primates living in tropical forests exhibit similar or different patterns of behavior. Therefore, the goal of our study was to investigate female dominance relationships in relation to food in gray-cheeked mangabeys (Lophocebus albigena). Since gray-cheeked mangabeys are largely frugivorous, we predicted that females would have linear dominance hierarchies and form coalitions. In addition, recent studies suggest that long food site residence time is another important factor in eliciting competitive interactions. Therefore, we also predicted that when foods had long site residence times, higher-ranking females would be able to spend longer at the resource than lower-ranking females. Analyses showed that coalitions were rare relative to some other Old World primate species, but females had linear dominance hierarchies. We found that, contrary to expectation, fruit was not associated with more agonism and did not involve long site residence times. However, bark, a food with a long site residence time and potentially high resource value, was associated with more agonism, and higher-ranking females were able to spend more time feeding on it than lower-ranking females. These results suggest that higher-ranking females may benefit from higher food and energy intake rates when food site residence times are long. These findings also add to accumulating evidence that food site residence time is a behavioral contributor to female dominance hierarchies in group-living species.     

室内外PM10中多环芳烃相关关系及来源分析

为研究室内外PM10中多环芳烃相关性和来源特征,于2009年非采暖季、采暖季在天津市某小区36位住户室内和室外进行PM10膜采样,并分析其中12种PAHs浓度.结果表明,非采暖季较采暖季更为良好的室内外通风性,导致非采暖季室内外PM10中PAHs浓度没有显著差异(P>0.05),而采暖季室内PM10中PAHs浓度显著小于室外浓度;非采暖季室内外PM10中各PAHs占总PAHs的质量百分比基本一致,而采暖季其室内外质量百分比有明显不同;采暖季和非采暖季室内外PM10中PAHs的I/O平均值均低于1,但采暖季I/O值小于非采暖季. 对参与者的时间活动模式分析表明,在采暖季和非采暖季,室内吸烟、清洁活动以及烹饪对室内PM10中PAHs浓度变化均没有显著影响(P>0.05). 室内外PAHs浓度线性回归分析表明,室内PM10中5~7环PAHs主要受到室外源的影响,2~4环PAHs主要受到室内源的影响,非采暖季和采暖季室内外PM10中总PAHs的有效穿透因子分别为0.73和0.51. 通过特征比值法对PM10中PAHs来源进行解析得出,燃煤源、柴油机动车是其主要来源.     

再论环境社会系统/生态文明建设的四种基本关系

首先,在总结系列具有广泛影响的中西学者对中西文明特征的看法的基础上,论证了在东西方文明中,人与自然的关系存在分化的现象.又考虑到"天人合一"是中国文化的核心特质并是"中国文化对人类未来可有之贡献",进而将人与自然的关系分解为人与天的关系以及人与物的关系.人与天的关系是以整体性的视角对待人与自然的相互作用,并在此基础上形成的知识和观念的总和.人与物的关系是指以分析性的思路处理人与自然的相互作用,并在此基础上形成的知识与观念的总和.其次,论证了四种关系是基本关系.环境社会系统中的基本关系必须符合以下条件:一是必要的;二是基本关系之间可以是相关的,但不能是完全相关的;三是在所研究的系统中,所有的基本关系必须是完备的;四是基本关系应该是所描述的系统的各个一级子系统之间的一级关系.主要通过穷举法,发现从兰种生产理论或者社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的层面上看,其中存在九种一级关系,但是有些关系与环境社会系统的研究内容相去甚远,有的具有完全共线性的性质,把这些关系排除在外,剩下四种基本关系,即:人与自身的关系、人与人的关系、人与天的关系、人与物的关系.     

基于府际博弈的跨行政区流域水污染治理困境分析

水资源短缺和水污染是我国面临的重要环境问题.受流域自然整体性和流动性的影响,某一行政区的污染通常可以通过水体向另一个或多个行政区转移.传统理论上,人们认为造成跨行政区流域水污染治理困境的主要原因是经济增长方式、产业结构、环境执法效率和管理体制的障碍.实际上,以上因素难以从根本上解释跨行政区流域水污染的治理困境.文章运用博弈理论对流域污染治理中中央政府和地方政府之间的信号传递博弈,以及流域上下游地方政府之间的污染治理博弈进行了分析,结果表明:在区域利益、信息不对称和缺乏激励机制的影响下,地方政府很难真正履行中央政府的治理政策,而污染外部性和利益冲突则使各行政区之间难以达成合作治理,府际博弈的非理性均衡成为跨行政区流域水污染治理困境的深层次原因.鉴于此,跨行政区流域水污染治理必须理解政府的角色和行为,才能找到有效的治理对策.中央政府有必要增强政策威胁的置信度,提高监督和惩治水平,克服地方政府和污染企业达成利益同盟,并通过重复博弈建立行政区之间的流域合作治理机制.     

环境治理中府际合作的逻辑

公共事务的积累只是为制度化解决提供了必要性,当政者维护政权的根本利益需要决定了公共事务处理的优先序列。客观问题的属性和解决的迫切程度只有在政府最高层统治集团认为维系权力存续的手段具备充分的支撑条件时,才会愿意在正式制度上进行调整,为解决问题提供制度供给。新中国成立后很长一段时间内,我国环境问题并不突出,中央政府根据社会主要矛盾需要制定了以发展经济为重心的制度体系。这种制度结构使地方政府和辖区企业形成了利益共容关系。为适应竞争的需要,地方政府庇护辖区企业环境行为,机会主义地执行环境管理制度,使环境问题积累成为影响安全价值的显著因素。在国内外政治压力下,中央政府最终做出了战略调整,地方政府在中央政府制度调控下,自发地合作治理环境问题。