A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.     

Energy and carbon balances of wood cascade chains

In this study we analyze the energy and carbon balances of various cascade chains for recovered wood lumber. Post-recovery options include reuse as lumber, reprocessing as particleboard, pulping to form paper products, and burning for energy recovery. We compare energy and carbon balances of chains of cascaded products to the balances of products obtained from virgin wood fiber or from non-wood material. We describe and quantify several mechanisms through which cascading can affect the energy and carbon balances: direct cascade effects due to different properties and logistics of virgin and recovered materials, substitution effects due to the reduced demand for non-wood materials when wood is cascaded, and land use effects due to alternative possible land uses when less timber harvest is needed because of wood cascading. In some analyses we assume the forest is a limiting resource, and in others we include a fixed amount of forest land from which biomass can be harvested for use as material or biofuel. Energy and carbon balances take into account manufacturing processes, recovery and transportation energy, material recovery losses, and forest processes. We find that land use effects have the greatest impact on energy and carbon balances, followed by substitution effects, while direct cascade effects are relatively minor.     

EMPIRICAL MODELING OF HYDROLOGIC AND NFS POLLUTANT FLUX IN AN URBANIZING BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Long term effects of precipitation and land use/land cover on basin outflow and nonpoint source (NFS) pollutant flux are presented for up to 24 years for a rapidly developing headwater basin and three adjacent headwater basins on the urban fringe of Washington, D.C. Regression models are developed to describe the annual and seasonal responses of basin outflow and IMPS pollutant flux to precipitation, mean impervious surface (IS), and land use. To quantify annual change in mean IS, a variable called delta IS is created as a temporal indicator of urban soil disturbance. Hydrologic models indicate that total annual surface outflow is significantly associated with precipitation and mean IS (r²= 0.65). Seasonal hydrologic models reveal that basin outflow is positively associated with IS during the summer and fall growing season (June to November). NPS pollutant flux models indicate that total and storm total suspended solids (TSS) flux are significantly associated with precipitation and urban soil disturbance in all seasons. Annual NPS total nitrogen flux is significantly associated with both urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.51). Seasonal models of phosphorus flux indicate a significant association of total phosphorus flux with urban soil disturbance during the growing season. Total soluble phosphorus (TSP) flux is significantly associated with IS (r²= 0.34) and urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.58). In urbanizing Cub Run basin, annual TSP concentrations are significantly associated with IS and cultivated agriculture (r²= 0.51).     

论建立我国安全管理硕士教育制度

论述了安全科学技术的地位和作用，我国安全科学与工程学科的特点，安全工程师必备的知识体系，培养安全工程专业人才的要求，目前安全工程人才培养与实际需要的差距，我国安全科学技术的前景和已有的多层次安全教育体系等，在此基础上，首次提议了建立我国的安全管理硕士（MSA）教育制度，以便满足高层次安全管理人才的迫切需要，同时，还探讨了MSA人才的基本培养方案，比较了MSA和MBA（工商管理硕士）的共同特征，提出MSA教育可以借鉴MBA教育的经验。     

鄱阳湖洪灾特征与圩区还湖减灾运用方式研究

根据水文资料,分析了鄱阳湖入湖五大河流来水与长江水情对鄱阳湖洪灾的影响和鄱阳湖洪水位的频率特征,探讨了湖区中小圩区"高水还湖滞洪,低水种植养殖"的减灾运行方式对湖区防洪减灾可以起到的作用。     

CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.     

土地使用权出让与土地利用总体规划

本文在论述土地使用权出让和土地利用总体规划内涵的基础上,研究了两者作用和反作用的关系,提出了两者最终目标一致性的观点,并探讨了实践上相关的问题。     

SOME CONJUNCTIVE DESALTING STUDIES EN THE UNITED KINGDOM1

ABSTRACT .Operating rule procedures are developed for the optimal use of desalination in conjunction with surface water impoundments. Results obtained from the use of hill-climbing and dynamic programming methods are compared. Benefits to be obtained from the integrated use of desalination are demonstrated through a case study for the Barcelona area of Spain.     

SEASONAL OCCURRENCE OF ANNUAL FLOODS ON SMALL PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHEDS1

A study is presented of the months in which the instantaneous annual maximum discharges from 66 watersheds occurred. The 2,052 flood values were measured on areas ranging from 2.4 through 214 square miles. The longest record was 60 years; the three shortest were 20. Pictorial results show both the number of floods for each month and individual discharges relative to the mean flood. A parameter which is weighted in this manner accounts for both the incidence and the magnitude of floods. Peculiarities of flood-timing charts, based on this parameter, are discussed with respect to watershed size, soils, geology, and land use. After anomolous watersheds had been assigned to special categories, flood-timing charts from most records exhibit a regional dichotomy dividing eastern from western Pennsylvania.