BENEFITS OF ITERATIVE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WASHINGTON,D.C., METROPOLITAN AREA1

The three largest water utilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (WMA) rely on the Potomac River and its reservoirs for water supply. These utilities have committed to a periodic review of the system's adequacy to meet future demands. In 1990, 1995, 2000, and again in 2004 (for publication in 2005) the utilities requested that the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) conduct a 20‐year water demand and resource adequacy study to fulfill this need. The selection of the five‐year interval provides multiple benefits. It allows regular updates and incorporation of recent demographic forecasts, and it increases visibility and understanding of the adequacy of the region's water resources. It also provides adequate time to conduct research on the physical system and to incorporate modifications based on this research into subsequent studies. The studies and lessons learned are presented in this case study of the WMA. The work has been a natural outgrowth of a long history of cooperative water supply planning and management among the main WMA water utilities and ICPRB.     

Isotopes in teeth and a cryptic population of coastal freshwater seals

Human activities threaten the biodiversity of aquatic mammals across the globe. Conservation of these species hinges on the ability to delineate movements and foraging behaviors of animals, but gaining such insights is hampered by difficulties in tracing individuals over their lives. We determined isotope ratios in teeth (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹³C/¹²C, and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) to examine lifelong movement and resource-use patterns of a unique freshwater population of a wide-ranging pinniped species (harbor seal [Phoca vitulina]) that resides in Iliamna Lake, Alaska (U.S.A.). This population's potentially unique migratory behavior and use of different trophic resources are unknown. The isotope ratios we measured in teeth showed that seals were born in the lake, remained lifelong residents, and relied principally on resources produced from in the lake, even when seasonally abundant and nutrient-dense spawning anadromous fish (i.e., sockeye salmon [Oncorhynchus nerka]) were available in the lake. Our results illustrate how serial isotope records in teeth, particularly ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, can be used to quantify how coastal mammal populations exploit both freshwater and marine ecosystems. Understanding lifelong patterns of habitat and resource use is essential information when designing effective conservation plans for threatened coastal mammals. We present the Iliamna Lake harbor seals as a unique case study into how isotope records within teeth can help reveal the cryptic ecology of such a population residing in an intact ecosystem. The results also provide critical baseline information for the Kvichak River system, which is facing an uncertain future due to proposed large-scale industrial development and a rapidly changing climate.     

Bird‐community responses to habitat creation in a long‐term,large‐scale natural experiment

Ecosystem function and resilience are compromised when habitats become fragmented due to land‐use change. This has led to national and international conservation strategies aimed at restoring habitat extent and improving functional connectivity (i.e., maintaining dispersal processes). However, biodiversity responses to landscape‐scale habitat creation and the relative importance of spatial and temporal scales are poorly understood, and there is disagreement over which conservation strategies should be prioritized. We used 160 years of historic post‐agricultural woodland creation as a natural experiment to evaluate biodiversity responses to habitat creation in a landscape context. Birds were surveyed in 101 secondary, broadleaf woodlands aged 10–160 years with ≥80% canopy cover and in landscapes with 0‐17% broadleaf woodland cover within 3000 m. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect relationships between bird abundance and diversity, ecological continuity, patch characteristics, and landscape structure and quantified the relative conservation value of local and landscape scales for bird communities. Ecological continuity indirectly affected overall bird abundance and species richness through its effects on stand structure, but had a weaker influence (effect size near 0) on the abundance and diversity of species most closely associated with woodland habitats. This was probably because woodlands were rapidly colonized by woodland generalists in ≤10 years (minimum patch age) but were on average too young (median 50 years) to be colonized by woodland specialists. Local patch characteristics were relatively more important than landscape characteristics for bird communities. Based on our results, biodiversity responses to habitat creation depended on local‐ and landscape‐scale factors that interacted across time and space. We suggest that there is a need for further studies that focus on habitat creation in a landscape context and that knowledge gained from studies of habitat fragmentation and loss should be used to inform habitat creation with caution because the outcomes are not necessarily reciprocal.     

Marijuana trajectories and associations with driving risk behaviors in Canadian youth

Objective: Research on risky driving practices involving marijuana use among youth and young adults often relies on cross-sectional data, which fail to account for longitudinal changes in substance use patterns. A better understanding of the longitudinal patterns of marijuana use and its effect on risky driving practices during young adulthood is needed in order to better inform prevention efforts. The current study examined whether different longitudinal patterns of marijuana use across the transition from adolescence to young adulthood are associated with impaired driving risks in young adulthood.

Methods: Data were from the longitudinal Victoria Healthy Youth Survey, which interviewed youth biennially on 6 occasions across 10 years (2003 to 2013).

Results: Youth who reported consistently high levels of marijuana use from adolescence to young adulthood (chronic users) and youth who reported increasing levels of use across this period (increasers) were more likely to engage in risky impaired driving behaviors compared to the other 3 user groups (occasional users, decreasers, and abstainers). Frequency of marijuana use was also predictive of impaired driving risks in young adulthood after controlling for individual characteristics (age, sex, socioeconomic status, age of onset of marijuana use), frequency of other substance use (heavy episodic drinking and illicit drug use), and simultaneous use of marijuana and other substances (alcohol and illicit drugs). By young adulthood, youth who use marijuana more than once a week are more likely to simultaneously use alcohol and engage in heavy episodic drinking. They are also more likely take driving risks.

Conclusions: Harm reduction strategies and legislative approaches targeting impaired driving risks associated with marijuana use should include approaches to target these high-risk groups and to reduce simultaneous use of alcohol.     

反馈环断裂下的安全知识积累与扩散仿真研究

为了研究个体死亡引发反馈环断裂对安全知识积累和扩散的影响，采用元胞自动机方法，构建了多层次、多状态、多行为的安全知识积累和扩散演化模型。然后运用交替变量控制法进行仿真实验，获取605组数据，并对所得数据进行层次回归分析。研究结果表明:个体死亡会阻碍安全知识积累且会加剧个体间知识差异，同时事故率的增加会提高知识积累机会和个体死亡机会，产生复杂的双向对冲效应；替代者知识水平能够对安全知识积累和扩散产生较大的正向影响，并能削弱个体死亡的负向影响；事故见证者的增加也能够产生一定的正向影响。据此提出“数量型死亡悖论”，并指出促进安全知识积累和扩散的重点方向。     

Understanding the effects of different social data on selecting priority conservation areas

Conservation success is contingent on assessing social and environmental factors so that cost‐effective implementation of strategies and actions can be placed in a broad social–ecological context. Until now, the focus has been on how to include spatially explicit social data in conservation planning, whereas the value of different kinds of social data has received limited attention. In a regional systematic conservation planning case study in Australia, we examined the spatial concurrence of a range of spatially explicit social values and land‐use preferences collected using a public participation geographic information system and biological data. We used Zonation to integrate the social data with the biological data in a series of spatial‐prioritization scenarios to determine the effect of the different types of social data on spatial prioritization compared with biological data alone. The type of social data (i.e., conservation opportunities or constraints) significantly affected spatial prioritization outcomes. The integration of social values and land‐use preferences under different scenarios was highly variable and generated spatial prioritizations 1.2–51% different from those based on biological data alone. The inclusion of conservation‐compatible values and preferences added relatively few new areas to conservation priorities, whereas including noncompatible economic values and development preferences as costs significantly changed conservation priority areas (48.2% and 47.4%, respectively). Based on our results, a multifaceted conservation prioritization approach that combines spatially explicit social data with biological data can help conservation planners identify the type of social data to collect for more effective and feasible conservation actions.     

Assessing the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use

High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected‐area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land‐use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land‐acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land‐acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high‐priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land‐acquisition costs and land‐use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24–78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73–13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19–82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost‐effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.     

How to foster agroecological innovations? A comparison of participatory design methods

Facing contemporary environmental crisis implies fostering agroecological innovations that take into account local ecological regulations and rely on multiple stakeholders' innovation capacities. This paper draws on two fields of literature that remain unconnected so far: participatory approaches and design sciences. It proposes an analysis grid to support a reflexive analysis of cases of implementation of three participatory design methods: ComMod (Companion Modelling for concerted management of natural resources), Forage Rummy (simulation-based board game for designing farming systems) and KCP (collective design workshops to foster innovation). This analysis highlights key features of the methods in view of agroecological innovation challenges, focusing on knowledge management and organisation for exploration.     

Discounted knowledges: farmers» and residents» understandings of nature conservation goals and policies

Local Biodiversity Action Plans are the preferred policy mechanism for setting and delivering local biodiversity targets in the UK. This paper reviews the kind of knowledge conservation scientists envisage being used to identify and set local targets, and explores the means of incorporating local knowledge into this process. We use a case study of a Wildlife Enhancement Scheme (WES) on the Pevensey Levels, East Sussex, to reveal the understandings that local farmers and residents have of the nature conservation goals and practices associated with the scheme. Drawing on the findings of in-depth discussion groups, we show how farmers challenge both the monopoly of knowledge conservationists profess about nature, and the enlistment of farmers on the scheme as «technicians», motivated solely by financial rewards, rather than as knowledgeable experts who also have emotional attachments and ethical values for nature. Local people use their knowledge of both local farmers, and the industry in general, to challenge the assumption that farmers can be trusted with delivering nature conservation goals. In the absence of a commitment by central government to agree widely-held environmental standards, and a more democratic process of making judgements about what local nature is worth conserving, local residents challenge existing processes designed to conserve nature that are driven by the knowledge and practices of official experts alone. The findings of the study suggest that a widening of the knowledge base on which the goals and practices of nature conservation are founded, and a more deliberative process of making decisions about what nature is important locally, will secure and strengthen public support for local biodiversity action plans.1998 Academic Press