Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations

We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) used in conventional modeling exercises. These classes are defined by common qualitative features, e.g., monotonicity, signs, etc. Using the QSIM-algorithm it is possible to derive the set of possible solutions of all ODEs in the class. By this one can formulate a common, qualitatively specified cause–effect scheme valid for all case studies. The scheme is validated by testing it against the actually observed histories in the study regions with respect to their reconstruction by the corresponding QDE. The method is outlined theoretically and exemplary applied to the problem of land-use changes due to smallholder agriculture in developing countries. It is shown that the seven case-studies used can be described by a single cause–effect scheme which thus constitutes a pattern of Global Change. As a generally valid prerequisite for sustainability of this kind of land-use the presence of wage labor is shown to represent a decisive factor. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Connecting Community Action and Science to Combat Desertification: Evaluation of a Process

Combating desertification requires the involvement of many people ranging from communities who experience the effects on a daily basis and scientists attempting to understand the biophysical and socio-economic causes and consequences of desertification, to developers and policy makers on all levels. In many instances, however, the understanding, approaches and actions of these different groups contradict rather than support one another. Over the period 2000 to 2002, a conference process undertaken in southern Africa brought together communities, scientists, and development workers to test the concept that they could connect and work together to combat desertification, given an appropriate framework. The conference was a success, and communities, scientists and developers did exchange experience, knowledge and information. Many lessons were learned, although some pitfalls were experienced. Time, funding, enhanced communication, and good will are the primary ingredients for ensuring that different sectors complement one another in their efforts to combat desertification.     

Combating Desertification: Building on Traditional Knowledge Systems of the Thar Desert Communities

The Thar Desert of western India is known for its rich and ancient culture system and traditions. The communities have long been part of the Thar Desert ecosystem and have evolved specific strategies to live in harmony with its hostile environment. This culture has provided several miracle plants of immense food and medicinal value to modern civilisation. The ancient rural livelihood knowledge system reflects time-tested techno-scientific knowledge with a proven track record of sustainability, especially during natural hazards like drought and famines. In addition, several of the traditional skills of local communities in arts and crafts, music and instruments have made modern man aware of the art and techniques of sustainably utilising local biological resources and preserving their biodiversity along with using waste products of the forests, without harming the desert ecosystem. Traditional cultural and socio-religious values are fast dwindling under the impact of materialistic approach, industrialisation and development. This paper endeavours to illustrate the need to assist and propagate indigenous rural livelihood systems rather than mindlessly replace or abandon them as a result of state bureaucracies.     

Impervious Surface Area as a Predictor of the Effects of Urbanization on Stream Insect Communities in Maine, U.S.A.

The influence of urbanization on stream insect communities was determined by comparing physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of streams draining 20 catchments with varyinglevels of urban land-cover in Maine (U.S.A). Percent total impervious surface area (PTIA), which was used to quantify urbanland-use, ranged from 1–31% among the study catchments.Taxonomic richness of stream insect communities showed an abruptdecline as PTIA increased above 6%. Streams draining catchmentswith PTIA < 6% had the highest levels of both total insect and EPT (Ephemeroptera + Plecoptera + Trichoptera) taxonomic richness. These streams contained insect communities with a totalrichness averaging 33 taxa in fall and 31 taxa in spring; EPT richness ranged from an average of 15 taxa in fall and 13 taxa inspring. In contrast, none of the streams draining catchments with6–27% PTIA had a total richness > 18 taxa or an EPT richness> 6 taxa. Insect communities in streams with PTIA > 6% were characterized by the absence of pollution-intolerant taxa. The distribution of more pollution-tolerant taxa (e.g.Acerpenna (Ephemeroptera); Paracapnia, Allocapnia (Plecoptera); Optioservus, Stenelmis (Coleoptera); Hydropsyche, Cheumatopsyche (Trichoptera)), however, showed little relation to PTIA. In contrast to the apparent threshold relationship between PTIA and insect taxonomic richness, both habitat qualityand water quality tended to decline as linear functions of PTIA.Our results indicate that, in Maine, an abrupt change in stream insect community structure occurs at a PTIA above a threshold ofapproximately 6% of total catchment area. The measurement of PTIA may provide a valuable tool for predicting thresholds for adverse effects of urbanization on the health of headwater streams in Maine.     

Spatial based compromise programming for multiple criteria decision making in land use planning

Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L _p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.     

Assessing the Effects of Non-Point Source Pollution on American Samoa’s Coral Reef Communities

Surveys were completed on Tutuila Island, American Samoa, to characterize reef development and assess the impacts of non-point source pollution on adjacent coral reefs at six sites. Multivariate analyses of benthic and coral community data found similar modern reef development at three locations; Aoa, Alofau, and Leone. These sites are situated in isolated bays with gentle sloping foundations. Aoa reefs had the highest estimates of crustose coralline algae cover and coral species richness, while Leone and Alofau showed high abundances of macroalgae and Porites corals. Aoa has the largest reef flat between watershed discharge and the reef slope, and the lowest human population density. Masefau and Fagaalu have a different geomorphology consisting of cemented staghorn coral fragments and steep slopes, however, benthic and coral communities were not similar. Benthic data suggest Fagaalu is heavily impacted compared with all other sites. Reef communities were assessed as bio-criteria indicators for waterbody health, using the EPA aquatic life use support designations of (1) fully supportive, (2) partially supportive, and (3) non-supportive for aquatic life. All sites resulted in a partially supportive ranking except Fagaalu, which was non-supportive. The results of this rapid assessment based upon relative benthic community measures are less desirable than long-term dataset analyses from monitoring programs, however it fills an important role for regulatory agencies required to report annual waterbody assessments. Future monitoring sites should be established to increase the number of replicates within each geological and physical setting to allow for meaningful comparisons along a gradient of hypothesized pollution levels.     

A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

The value of indigenous knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the African Sahel

Past global efforts at dealing with the problem of global warming concentrated on mitigation, with the aim of reducing and possibly stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. With the slow progress in achieving this, adaptation was viewed as a viable option to reduce the vulnerability to the anticipated negative impacts of global warming. It is increasingly realized that mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independent of each other but as complements. This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of adaptation into mitigation strategies. However, integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate change concerns is not a completely new idea in the African Sahel. The region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts with records dating back into centuries. The local populations in this region, through their indigenous knowledge systems, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change, which exceed those predicted by models of future climate change. However, this knowledge is rarely taken into consideration in the design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper highlights some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the Sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Incorporating indigenous knowledge can add value to the development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that are rich in local content, and planned in conjunction with local people.     

玉溪市中心城区土地利用布局及其优化研究

本文系统分析了玉溪市中心城区土地利用强度、土地利用效率、土地利用结构的现状 ,研究了玉溪市中心城区土地利用优化对策 ,探索在城市总体布局中 ,如何充分利用地形特点 ,从可持续发展的角度出发 ,创造舒适宜人的城市生态环境空间。