Optimal timing of carbon capture policies under learning-by-doing

Using a standard Hotelling model of resource exploitation, we determine the optimal energy consumption paths from three options: dirty coal, which is non-renewable and carbon-emitting; clean coal, which is also non-renewable but carbon-free thanks to carbon capture and storage (CCS); and solar energy, which is renewable and carbon-free. We assume that the atmospheric carbon stock cannot exceed an exogenously given ceiling. Taking into account learning-by-doing in CCS technology, we show the following results: (i) clean coal exploitation cannot begin before the outset of the carbon constrained phase and must stop strictly before the end of this phase; (ii) the energy price path can evolve non-monotonically over time; and (iii) when the solar cost is low enough, an unusual energy consumption sequence along with solar energy is interrupted for some time and replacement by clean coal may exist.     

Monitoring of soil biochemical quality parameters under greenhouse spinach cultivation through animal waste recycling

Under the intensive agricultural system, direct application of animal slurries to soils can provide a sustainable disposal of these wastes by inducing positive changes in soil quality and fertility. However, how animal wastes quantitatively affect the key nutrients (C, N, P and S) transforming soil enzymes is not clearly known. A greenhouse spinach cultivation study demonstrated that pig slurry, either in raw (RS) or processed (aerobically aged) (PS) form, significantly (p?β-glucosidase (23–39%), urease (59–103%), nitrate reductase (73–103%) and dehydrogenase (27–72%)) and microbial growth in soil as compared to the unamended control. However, it did not significantly (p?>?.05) alter the aryl sulphatase enzyme activity. Slurry applications also significantly improved the macro (N, P and K) and micronutrients (Cu, Mn, Zn and Fe) uptake by spinach plant and hence the yield (2.9–3.38 times higher than control). Similarly, compared to chemical fertilisers the application of pig slurries improved soil biological and biochemical parameters as well as plant nutrients uptake. This study demonstrated the closing of global energy and nutrient cycles through land application of animal wastes without compromising the crop yield.     

Comparative analysis of two tobacco surveillance questionnaires used in NHANES: accuracy of self-reported smoking status

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) uses two tobacco use surveillance questionnaires. One is administered during an at-home interview (HI) and the other, during an examination session at a mobile examination center (MEC). NHANES data for the years 1999–2012 were used to evaluate the consistency of responses to tobacco surveillance questions in HI and MEC interview. In addition, accuracy of self-reported smoking status was evaluated. Of those who reported to be daily cigarette smokers during HI, 18.7% reported to be either some-day smokers or nonsmokers during MEC interview. Of those who reported to be some-day cigarette smokers during HI, 22.1% reported to be daily smokers and 17.5% reported to be nonsmokers. Also, 4.1% of those who reported to be nonsmokers during HI reported to be either daily or some-day smokers during MEC interview. Using serum cotinine measurements taken during MEC interview, 27.1% were found to be smokers and 72.9% were found to be nonsmokers. In general, a moderate to high agreement, as measured by the κ statistic, was found between the self-reported responses to tobacco use questions during the home and MEC interviews as well as between smoking statuses based on self-reported and serum cotinine measurements.     

亚热带水库沉积物钻孔中有机质的历史记录及其环境意义

氢指数(HI)是重要的有机质评价参数,能够反映沉积有机质中脂肪大分子物质的相对含量,并用于反演水生生态系统的历史初级生产力,有助于研究藻类生产力对污染物的富集作用。为了探讨氢指数的环境指示作用,选择了亚热带的3座水库作为研究对象,采用Rock-Eval热解与生物标志物-中性糖方法相结合的研究技术,研究了沉积钻孔有机质的来源与特征;并结合210Pb和137Cs定年技术,综合运用氢指数和总糖含量对水库的初级生产力进行了重建。结果表明:中富营养的增塘和联安水库沉积有机质主要来源于浮游藻类,且受降解的程度较小,而贫营养的新丰江水库钻孔下层有机质主要是受降解作用或陆源高等植物等的影响。近年来,3个水库的HI值都有显著性的增加,且与其对应的总糖含量以及近50年来的滑动平均温度都高度的相关,说明这些水库都经历了气候变暖所引起的初级生产力增长。同时,升高的水库生产力扩大了沉积物剖面中重金属和多环芳烃的累积。     

Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science

Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes.     

Exploration of spatial morphometry and socioeconomic variables in modelling urban land use change

The incorporation of land use (LU) data with socioeconomic data is a main issue in modelling. This is as a result of difference in data model and scale. This study proposed and tested the change–pattern approach, which allows the incorporation of these data sets in modelling LU change. Focusing on LU dynamics for a selected part of the Thames Gateway within the City of London, the approach tested two different methods of input selection for the modelling operations. Variables selected from these two methods serve as inputs into several neural networks tested in order to identify the direction of change for each of the LU types within the study area. The result shows that direction of LU change across the study area could be identified when spatial morphology of the area and socioeconomic variables are considered. Some classes of change could be identified fairly accurately using landscape metrics indicating level of fragmentation, extent of LU patches, shape complexity of LU patches in combination with some socioeconomic variables.     

吉林市城区土地利用对地下水污染空间分布的影响

利用吉林市城区91眼监测井2013年的地下水水质监测数据,采用改进内梅罗污染指数法求取地下水污染指数,同时考虑第二松花江两岸地下水污染的非连续性,采用Kriging方法进行分区插值,然后叠加融合得出城区地下水污染指数空间分布图.结合吉林市城区土地利用类型,采用CM模型和SLM模型提取监测井不同半径范围内的土地利用类型,利用多元回归分析方法确定监测井最可能受污染的范围,最后利用Kendall 秩次相关检验法和回归分析方法分析城区土地利用类型对地下水污染空间分布的影响.研究结果表明,吉林市城区地下水污染呈现出明显的空间分布特征;城区地下水受到不同程度的污染,其中江北片区和中心片区较为严重;在考虑地下水流动的情况下,监测井最可能受污染的范围为沿地下水流向方向500m;吉林市城区土地利用类型对地下水污染空间分布有较大影响,其中传统工业用地、居民和商业用地、城市交通设施用地为主要因素,其Kendall 秩次相关检验τ值分别为0.248、0.174、0.143;在各研究片区,该3种土地利用类型和地下水污染空间分布也存在较好的相关性.     

偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法在中国东部植被变化归因研究中的应用

植被变化往往受到不同气候变量的综合作用,人类活动影响又使得植被对气候响应变得更为复杂,如何准确判别各种影响因素的相对重要性是植被变化归因研究中的一个关键点.研究基于偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法,使用1982-2006 年的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,分析了降水、气温、日照、相对湿度和风等气候变量对中国东部植被变化的相对影响,并选取了NDVI变化较为典型的区域,量化了农业活动对该地区植被变化的相对贡献.PLS回归方法兼具了主成分分析和多元回归的优点,克服了众多自变量之间存在强烈交互相关导致的多元共线性问题.研究结果表明:① 1982-2006 年间,中国东部逐月NDVI的年际变化呈现出明显的南北差异.在12、1-5 月,NDVI以显著上升为主,上升区域主要位于淮河以北.在6-10月,NDVI以显著下降为主,下降区域主要为淮河以南的部分区域,特别是6 月江苏一带NDVI的大范围下降尤为明显.不过与NDVI发生显著变化的区域相比,更多区域的NDVI在各月并没有出现显著变化.② 在NDVI显著上升的站点,对NDVI变化最具解释意义的气候变量为气温,特别是冬末春初(2-3 月)的升温对黄淮海区域NDVI的显著上升具有主导控制作用.而对于NDVI 显著下降的站点,多数都不能从气候角度解释这些区域的NDVI 变化.③ 江苏省NDVI在6 月出现的大范围显著下降,与农业种植结构的调整,主要是棉花种植面积的减少以及油菜面积的增加具有显著关系.     

宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟

宁蒙沿黄地带属于中国西北干旱半干旱快速城市化地区,研究这一典型地区的城镇用地扩展对丰富城镇用地扩展机制的理论研究和提供相应政策建议具有理论和现实意义。论文利用Logistic回归分析2000-2005年城镇用地扩展的主要驱动力,计算城镇用地转换适宜度矩阵,结合CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下城镇用地扩展趋势。结果表明：2000-2005年,城镇用地的主要来源是耕地,其次是草地及极少量农村居民点和工矿用地。对城镇用地变化影响最大的因素依次是邻域内城镇用地比重、年降水量、到2001年国道距离、到水域距离、到2001年省道距离以及到2000年土地利用中耕地、林地和草地的距离。一切照常情景下,2016年宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地总量约997 km²,主要分布在呼和浩特市区、包头市区等主要城市边缘;规划情景下,城镇用地规模达到1 525 km²,分布格局与一切照常情景类似;生态保护情景下,城镇用地规模总量达到1 480 km²,城镇用地沿交通轴扩展呈组团分布。由此得出主要结论：大城市边缘区和交通线是城镇用地发生的主要影响因素;通过总量控制的区域整体城镇用地规划可以优化区域整体城镇用地扩展格局。     

干旱内陆河流湿地景观破碎化模型构建与尺度分析——以黑河中游湿地为例

尺度的选择一直是地理学及景观生态学的研究重点和热点。在遥感和GIS的支持下,以黑河中游湿地为例,利用移动窗口技术和空间形态学准则构建湿地类型变化追踪模型;利用面积频率统计法、卡方分布归一化尺度方差、分维数距平和多样性指数探讨干旱内陆河流湿地类型变化追踪模型的适宜和最佳窗口尺度。结果表明：1）类型变化追踪模型能实现基于像元的湿地景观空间格局分析,弥补传统湿地景观破碎化研究主要基于景观和斑块类型水平尺度,难以深入解析湿地空间演变过程的不足;2）黑河中游湿地类型变化追踪模型的适宜窗口尺度为150 m×150 m~450 m×450 m,最佳窗口尺度为250 m×250 m。该结果是进一步研究黑河中游湿地空间破碎化特征的基础,同时对于丰富干旱内陆河流湿地景观破碎化研究尺度选择有一定积极作用。