多瑙河流域国际合作实践与启示

多瑙河是世界上流经国家最多的国际河流,其国际合作的成功实践对世界其他国际河流的合作具有积极的示范和借鉴作用。通过分析和总结多瑙河国际合作历程和合作特点（包括多种合作机制并存互补;引入风险管理、公众参与和流域综合管理等先进理念促进全面合作;利用GIS及数据管理等现代技术手段实现信息资源共享;利用协商和司法手段和平解决国际争端等）,结合我国国际河流的特点和国际水法及国际河流合作的发展趋势,提出了对我国的启示：应加强国际河流相关方面的研究与合作（特别是航运与水电开发等）;应充分重视国际河流生态环境保护,生态环境保护和防洪越来越强调全流域的合作与协调;应坚持国际河流的开发利用与保护并举,走平衡发展之路;应根据各国际河流特点及地区条件,选择合适的管理合作模式.     

泰州市建设用地扩展规律与格局演化研究

以多时相Landsat、TM/ETM卫星影像为数据源,运用GIS软件提取泰州市建设用地1988～2008年5个时相的用地信息,运用扩展强度指数、扩展速度指数、空间自相关等方法分析泰州市建设用地扩展时空特征和演化规律。结果表明:(1)泰州建设用地扩展经历了缓慢扩展、中速扩展、缓慢扩展3个阶段,显示了建设用地逐步走向集约利用的趋势;(2)在分析泰州建设用地不同扩展阶段的基础上,发现泰州建设用地扩展模式正处于从点状扩展向点轴扩展转变阶段,并出现了网络化扩展的端倪;(3)运用空间自相关分析了泰州建设用地扩展热点演化过程,发现扩展热点呈现跳跃迁移的特征,热点区与冷点区出现交替演化,Moran散点图体现了泰州市建设用地扩展处于空间极化的状态,外围城镇受中心城镇增长极带动发展的扩展模式。     

Beyond selectivity: Are behavioral avoidance and hormesis likely causes of pyrethroid-induced outbreaks of the southern red mite Oligonychus ilicis?

Secondary pest outbreak is a counterintuitive ecological backlash of pesticide use in agriculture that takes place with the increase in abundance of a non-targeted pest species after pesticide application against a targeted pest species. Although the phenomenon was well recognized, its alternative causes are seldom considered. Outbreaks of the southern red mite Oligonychus ilicis are frequently reported in Brazilian coffee farms after the application of pyrethroid insecticides against the coffee leaf miner Leucoptera coffeella. Selectivity favoring the red mite against its main predatory mites is generally assumed as the outbreak cause, but this theory has never been tested. Here, we assessed the toxicity (and thus the selectivity) of deltamethrin against both mite species: the southern red mite and its phytoseid predator Amblyseius herbicolus. Additionally, behavioral avoidance and deltamethrin-induced hormesis were also tested as potential causes of red mite outbreak using free-choice behavioral walking bioassays with the predatory mite and life-table experiments with both mite species, respectively. Lethal toxicity bioassays indicated that the predatory mite was slightly more susceptible than its prey (1.5×), but in more robust demographic bioassays, the predator was three times more tolerant to deltamethrin than its prey, indicating that predator susceptibility to deltamethrin is not a cause of the reported outbreaks. The predator did not exhibit behavioral avoidance to deltamethrin; however insecticide-induced hormesis in the red mite led to its high population increase under low doses, which was not observed for the predatory mite. Therefore, deltamethrin-induced hormesis is a likely cause of the reported red mite outbreaks.     

Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: Application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.     

基于数据库的污染场地流程管理初步设计

污染场地是工业化发展的产物,中国的污染场地修复与管理尚处于起始阶段,如何实现国家层面对污染场地的有效监管是一个重要课题。在国家污染场地信息管理数据库框架基础上,提出了以流程管理(BPM)架构技术和业务流程引擎技术为基础构建支持跨平台和跨系统的数据采集、处理和分析的BPM运行平台,设定了污染场地管理的主要机构和相应主要角色,还设计了污染场地资料入库和分类评估的管理流程,以期为中国污染场地的计算机化和网络化监管平台建设提供参考和借鉴。     

利用沉水植物生长期收割进行富营养化水体生态管理的实地研究

在以再生水为补水水源的圆明园玉玲珑水域进行沉水植物收割实验,自2011年4—12月间每隔半个月监测一次水质。结果表明,通过在生长期收割沉水植物,玉玲珑水体TP、SRP、TN、NH4+-N、NO3--N和COD的平均浓度可维持在0.1、0.04、0.86、0.1、0.32和18 mg/L左右,水质保持在Ⅲ类至Ⅳ类地表水之间;与之对照的不收割沉水植物的玉玲珑进水口水域,9月沉水植物开始死亡腐烂,TP、SRP、TN、NH4+-N最高分别可达0.5、0.1、2.4和0.60 mg/L;作为对照的另一以挺水植物为主的水域,水质普遍劣于有大量沉水植物生长的水域,TP、SRP、TN、NH4+-N最高分别可达1.2、0.60、6.1和0.61mg/L。圆明园的实地实验表明,沉水植物有很强的净化水质作用,通过生长期收割,能够进一步强化其水质净化作用,可以作为一项对富营养化水体进行生态管理的有效措施进行推广。     

南水北调中线丹江口库区土地生产潜力估算

以土地生产潜力与承载力理论为基础,以南水北调中线工程主要淹没区和水源地——丹江口库区耕地为研究对象,在遥感影像、DEM、气象、土壤等数据支持下建立模型,利用潜力递减法估算丹江口库区的土地生产潜力,同时对土地资源人口承载力进行研究。估算结果表明:研究区不同作物、不同耕作制度下的最大生产潜力与现实生产力有很大差距,在现有粮食生产水平下,库区未淹没耕地的情况下,库区的人口承载力现状已经很差,当水位达到170 m后,库区人口承载力将进一步恶化。但是,研究区作物的现实生产力还有很大的提高余地,若在移民的前提下,深入挖掘土地生产潜力,因地制宜的选择合适的耕作制度,库区的土地承载力还可以有所提高。     

Payments for Environmental Services in Latin America as a Tool for Restoration and Rural Development

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) can encourage projects that enhance restoration, production, and rural development. When projects promote differentiated systems by paying farmers for the provision of services, the application of PES requires evaluation of the environmental services provided by each system. We present evaluations of carbon stocks and biodiversity in pure and mixed native tree plantations in Costa Rica. To illustrate how monetary values can be assigned, we discuss a project that awarded PES to silvopastoral systems in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Colombia based on carbon stocks and biodiversity. PES can promote positive environmental attitudes in farmers. Currently this project is being scaled up in Colombia based on their positive experiences with PES as a tool to promote adoption. Compared to PES systems that include only one environmental service, systems that incorporate bundling or layering of multiple services can make sustainable land uses more attractive to farmers and reduce perverse incentives.     

基于物元模型的土地整理项目绩效评价方法与案例研究

随着新公共管理理念的普及和土地整理在我国社会经济发展中重要性的日益显著,对土地整理项目绩效评价理论、方法及实证研究意义重大。针对已有研究的不足,在界定土地整理项目绩效内涵基础上构建了基于“流程逻辑”框架的土地整理项目绩效评价指标体系,结合物元分析法建立了物元评价模型,并以浙江省永康市石柱镇土地整理项目为例,展开了实证研究。结果表明物元评价模型适合用于土地整理项目绩效评价。综合评价显示永康市石柱镇项目总体绩效水平为“较差”,绩效值为0.014 4。单指标评价显示:该项目只有4个指标绩效水平达到“良好及以上”,1个指标处于“一般”,其他的都处于“较差”水平;研究项目区的绩效水平主要受耕地面积增加率、土地利用提高率等9个因素影响。永康市在今后的土地整理项目建设中应该针对这些绩效影响因素采取相应措施,不断改善项目的整体绩效水平     

河流近域土地利用格局与水质相关性分析——以巢湖流域为例

以河流近域土地利用构成与水环境质量间定量关系为研究对象,基于巢湖流域40个水质监测断面和320个河流近域作用区,运用GIS空间分析功能计算不同尺度作用区内土地利用构成,借助相关分析、冗余分析(RDA)等数理统计手段,分析土地利用构成与水质指数间的相关关系;并分析和比较了流域内山区和平原地区土地利用构成与水质之间关系。结果表明,巢湖流域近河道地区土地利用构成对各水质指数有重要影响,且受地形因素影响。其中,建设用地对河流水质恶化具有明显作用;河流沿岸林地布局能显著改善水质,尤其是对氨氮和高锰酸盐指数敏感;耕地面积变化与水质相关性不显著。RDA冗余分析证实了不同尺度下的土地利用类型对水环境影响具有尺度效应。研究成果对巢湖流域水环境管理具有重要的实际指导意义,并为同类研究提供借鉴