温室气体对气候环境的影响预测及其不确定性

随着温室气体排放量的增加,联系温室气体特有的保温效应,大气平均气温将升高。在采用气候模式对未来近百年的气候变化做出一定预测的基础上,分析未来可能出现的气候变化所造成的对气候环境方面的影响。详细分析了现阶段预测未来气候环境变化存在的不确定性,正是这些不确定性影响了预测的可信度。     

西安市春季生物气溶胶的分布特征和健康影响

西安春季经常出现大量飞絮,易造成空气污染并引发居民哮喘等健康风险.采集西安市春季不同观测点(交通样点和校园样点)生物气溶胶、 PM_2.5和飞絮样品,通过恒温培养和高通量测序等方法研究可培养生物气溶胶的浓度变化、粒径分布,PM_2.5和飞絮携带的微生物的来源、群落结构和健康影响.结果表明,可培养细菌浓度在交通样点高于校园样点(P=0.027);交通样点可培养细菌浓度为真菌的2.7倍,而校园样点可培养真菌浓度高于细菌(1.4倍).可培养细菌和真菌日内最高浓度均出现在08:00;可培养细菌粒径呈双峰分布,真菌为单峰分布.土壤和植被是大气微生物的主要来源(占比85.9%),变形菌门(Proteobacteria)是飞絮和PM_2.5中共有的、丰度最高的菌门,在飞絮中占比达到91.3%(交通样点)和99.1%(校园样点);在PM_2.5样品中放线菌门(Actinobacteria)、厚壁菌门(Firmicutes)、拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes)、蓝藻门(Cyanobacteria)和异常球菌-栖热菌门(D...     

马拉硫磷和百菌清胁迫下斑马鱼行为变化的研究

以马拉硫磷和百菌清为胁迫因子,本文研究了2种污染物暴露下斑马鱼行为强度的变化。首先通过急性毒性试验确定了2种农药对斑马鱼24 h、48 h、72 h、96 h的半致死浓度(LC50),其次以LC50-48 h为1个染毒单位(TU),在0.01 TU、0.1 TU、0.5 TU、1 TU、2 TU 5个条件下,本文开展了斑马鱼行为学研究。结果显示,48 h马拉硫磷暴露斑马鱼的LC50为5 mg·L~(-1),百菌清暴露斑马鱼的LC50为0.01 mg·L~(-1)。随着污染物浓度增大,综合行为强度变化幅度增大。在设置的暴露浓度下,斑马鱼的行为强度在急剧增大或减小后都出现了明显的调节适应过程,基本符合环境压力模型。通过比较在不同频率下的影响强度,马拉硫磷和百菌清暴露斑马鱼摆鳍所受影响最大。本研究提示,水质监测中可增加斑马鱼摆鳍观察指标。     

Monitoring land use/land cover change impacts on soils in data scarce environments: a case of south-central Ethiopia

To monitor land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and assess its impact on the soil property, the availability of benchmark data is indispensable, which is hardly available in the intensively cultivated regions of developing countries. Our study attempts to solve this problem by generating a benchmark soil data through the development of modified spatial analogue (MSA) method in the context of the Upper Dijo River catchment, south-central Ethiopia. The magnitude and patterns of LULC changes were extracted from air photos and satellite imageries, along with the acquisition of soil samples from the reference and target sites through ground survey. Analysis of digital image processing shows significant LULC changes in a period that spanned three decades. The impact of LULC change on soil quality was assessed by comparing the soil physico-chemical properties sampled from the reference and target sites. The result shows a decline in total nitrogen, organic matter, available potassium and pH levels in soils collected from target sites, which conforms to results reported by studies conducted in data-rich environment. With careful validation, MSA could be useful for monitoring soil property changes in data-scarce environment and generate soil-related parameters for agro-ecological models.     

Land-use choices: the case of conservation reserve program (CRP) re-enrollment in Kansas,USA

Among the important alternatives for land conservation is the US Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) that celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2015. This paper explores how landowners decide on alternative land-use choices made available by the expiration of CRP contracts in Kansas. The study uses survey data and multinomial Logit models to predict land-use choices. Two models were tested. The first model does not incorporate variables concerning farmer perceptions and attitudes about land-use choices, while the second model does. The results show that CRP re-enrollment depends on factors, such as years of experience in cropping and percent of cropland irrigated. However, when perception variables are added, the models become more robust in explaining other land choice alternatives. The results suggest that as the perception of unfairness of more inflexible environmental policy rises, these farmers may be more likely to re-enroll their marginal land in the CRP program.     

Land-use planning via enhanced multi-objective evolutionary algorithms: optimizing the land value of major Greenfield initiatives

The successful implementation of major development initiatives relies on the sound allocation of land uses against critical design criteria and constraints. The discovery of optimum development plans introduces severe complexities in formulating and solving the underlying multi-objective optimization problem. Moreover, in the presence of conflicting planning criteria decision-makers should be provided with a set of alterative-yet-optimum solutions that uniformly cover the spectrum of feasible maps. The introduction of sophisticated optimization algorithms addresses this challenge by pursuing a complete approximation of the Pareto front containing all prominent spatial allocations. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a new evolutionary algorithm (UDT-MOEA) against the results of an established multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) when applied on a major greenfield initiative against the optimum location(s), size and shape of three new land uses. Each algorithm performs best in different areas of the feasible objective space, providing planning alternatives with distinct characteristics.     

The impacts of warfare and armed conflict on land systems

ABSTRACT

Land-use decisions can change abruptly in response to shocks, and warfare and armed conflicts are among the most drastic and globally frequent shocks. Yet, our understanding of where armed conflict affects land systems, how land-use patterns are impacted, and how far-reaching and persistent these changes are, is partial. We used a spatially detailed dataset on armed conflict and a literature review to explore these questions. A number of key insights emerged from our study: (1) warfare and armed conflict affect land systems mainly in more densely populated areas, regardless of the dominating land use; (2) warfare and armed conflict can impact land systems in major ways, but these effects are diverse and not unidirectional; (3) warfare and armed conflict primarily affects land systems locally, but can forge telecouplings; and (4) although the impact of warfare and armed conflict is often immediate, it can instigate long-lasting land-use legacies.     

Pollution prevention for sustainable development: the land-use question

The central argument of the paper is that effective pollution prevention can be achieved only by integrated land-use planning which offers the broad framework for co-ordinating technological and non-technological means to achieve sustainable development. The paper first reviews the role of land-use in preventing or contributing to pollution over time, focusing especially on contemporary efforts to promote environmental protection through land-use planning and management. The relationship between land-use, pollution and sustainable development is analysed by examining the most important types of land-use-related problems, discussing their causes and identifying a number of land-use-related constraints to sustainable development. Finally, a land-use planning and policy framework approach to pollution prevention for sustainable development is outlined which emphasizes the need for integrated analysis of pollution problems and adoption of comprehensive approaches to their solution. Scientific, spatial, temporal and policy issues are addressed in the context of the proposed approach.     

Effects of land use on water quality of two high-altitude lakes and catchments in Yunnan Province,China

SUMMARY

Reclaiming farmland from lakes in China in the 1950s damaged the water quality of many lakes. Tremendous efforts have been made since the late 1990s to restore vegetation around the damaged lakes. This paper examines water quality of Fuxian and Qilu Lakes and land-use characteristics within the two catchments in the high-altitude area of Yunnan Province, China. Landsat TM data acquired in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2005 were used to extract land use and land cover (LULC) information. Measurements of five water quality indices (WQIs), BOD, COD, pH, TN and TP, for the same period of time were examined. The results showed that the area of residential and forest/shrub increased, whereas that of cropland and barren land decreased from 1989 to 2005 in both catchments. Qilu Lake was much more polluted than Fuxian Lake, and pollution worsened over time for both lakes. The differences in water quality between the two lakes were caused by differences in LULC composition and continued degradation in water quality was caused by intensive farming and urban sprawl. Unless the landscape is converted back to its pre-1950 composition and structure, water quality in both lakes cannot be significantly improved and will continue to threaten sustainable development in the region.     

Evaluation of the sustainable land use status of the North China Plain

The North China Plain is one of the most important production areas for wheat and maize in China, and also has the densest agricultural population in China. How to use and develop the limited land resources reasonably, and improve and protect them, have become issues of major concern. This paper is based on sustainability theory, reviewing the fundamental principles of sustainability, and developing an index system with which to evaluate the sustainability status of land use. We also use this method to evaluate the land-use status of the North China Plain and to analyze current factors affecting sustainable land use in this area. In addition, we propose a specific method for evaluating sustainable land use.