CLUE-S模型对村镇土地利用变化的模拟与精度评价

利用航片、IKONOS和Quickbird影像得到研究区3期（1991、2001和2009年）土地利用历史数据,运用CLUE S模型,基于1991、2001年的土地利用数据对2009年土地利用格局进行模拟预测,并将模拟结果与2009年真实土地利用数据进行比较。类型水平上,选择ROC曲线统计和偏离度指数分别对各地类的Logistic回归拟合精度和CLUE S模型模拟精度进行评价;景观水平上,采用景观指数和Kappa指数系列方法,从综合预测能力、景观格局、数量和空间位置等方面对CLUE S模型的模拟精度进行全面评估。结果表明:①CLUE S模型对各土地利用类型的模拟精度均较高,各地类的Logistic回归的拟合精度随着模拟分辨率的提高而逐渐增加;②随着模拟时间的缩短,CLUE S模型对整体景观格局的模拟精度提高;③该模型对土地利用数量的模拟精度明显优于其对空间位置的模拟精度。总体而言,CLUE S模型在村镇尺度的模拟效果良好,预测精度较高,但在空间位置和景观格局精度方面还有待提高     

基于产业链的区域环境污染物排放的产业贡献

区域经济增长与环境质量之间的关系研究是目前学者们探讨的重要学术议题之一.其中较多的是对EKC曲线的验证,近几年部分学者从国民经济各部门中的产业自身特征、产业结构、技术进步、FDI效应等方面考察产业发展对污染物排放的影响.然而以上研究议题中学者均没有讨论污染物的发生主体-各产业部门与排污的直接关系.故本文将从宏观尺度下的综合水平测度区域经济发展与环境质量关系、中观尺度下的产业属性特征与排污关系的研究视角转移至分析具体产业部门的污染物排放效应,同时将产业置于产业链的结构形式中,研究产业链上产业发展与污染物排放的关系.发现:第一,通过借助复杂网络思想的社区划分方法,将山东省39个产业部门分为3个社团.其中社团I主要由制造业部门组成,共有18个产业部门,社团II包括了15个部门,主要是第三产业,杜团III由6个产业部门组成且内部异质性高.第二,选择其中以制造业为主的社团I,并在社团I内识别出一条彼此间联系最为紧密的产业链,包括农林牧渔业、食品制造及烟草加工业、化学工业、纺织工业、服装皮革羽绒及其制品业、通用/专用设备制造业和交通运输设备制造业.以一种定量的方法获取了通过价值流传递而串在一起的产业链条.该产业链的经济规模、污染物规模在山东省均有重要地位.第三,采用岭回归分析方法,构建了6个制造业与产业链工业废水、固体废弃物排放的关系模型,6个制造业中对工业废水、固体废弃物排放相对贡献度最大的部门分别为服装皮革羽绒及其制品业、食品制造及烟草加工业.这是由于上游产业排污的链式传递效应与产业自身污染物排放效应的共同叠加作用.     

中国省际能源效率差异及其影响因素分析

我国省际能源效率存在较大的差异.要进一步促进能源综合利用,需要在区域层面对能源效率差异形成的因素作更加全面深入的研究,以寻求更加合理有效的促进宏观能源效率改进的理论与方法.本文基于2007年的截面数据,运用能很好地消除各因素间多重共线性的偏最小二乘回归建模,选取了14个变量来代表经济发展水平、产业结构、工业结构、能源消费结构、对外开放程度、投资水平、政府影响力、制度因素、能源价格和地理因素这10个因素,分析了各因素对能源效率地区差异的影响方向和影响程度.研究结果表明,各地区固定资产投资中外商投资比重、工业增加值中高耗能产业比重以及煤炭消费比重的差异是造成能源效率地区差异显著的主要原因.这说明投资水平、工业结构和能源消费结构是造成能源效率地区差异显著的主要因素.要在短期内缩小地区间的能源效率差距,必须严格限制某些地区高耗能行业的过快发展,加强高耗能行业的结构调整,加快淘汰落后产能,大力提升煤炭的使用效率.     

民族地区农村信息化与农民收入关系研究——基于恩施州利川市调研结果的实证分析

运用对国家民委的863科技项目推广点之一的湖北恩施自治州利川市的调研数据,采用多变量回归和Logistic回归模型对信息化与农村经济发展、特别是与农民收入之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:信息化与农民收入有着正相关的关系;农民的收入结构与信息化、农民的文化程度也有着密切的关系。     

Hydroxytyrosol, the phenolic compound of olive oil protects human PBMC against oxidative stress and DNA damage mediated by 2,3,7,8-TCDD

The protective effect of hydroxytyrosol (HT), a strong antioxidant compound from extra virgin olive oil, against TCDD induced toxicity was investigated in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). PBMC (1 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹) were divided into four groups and were incubated in a CO₂ incubator (5% CO₂) for 12 h with vehicle, TCDD (10 nM), TCDD + HT (10 nM + 100 μM) and HT alone (100 μM) respectively. To clarify the role of HT against TCDD induced cytotoxicity, oxidative stress and the levels of antioxidant enzymes were assessed. Incubation of PBMC with TCDD significantly decreased cell viability, catalase (CAT) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and increased the levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione reductase (GR) and oxidative stress markers such as lipid peroxidation products (LPO), protein carbonyl content (PCC) and reactive oxygen species (ROS). Whereas, HT had an effective antioxidant property as observed by the increased cell viability, normalization of antioxidant enzymes and decreased levels of LPO, PCC and ROS in PBMC co-treated with HT and TCDD. Apoptosis detection and comet assay results shows that HT, by acting as an antioxidant, prevents the damage to DNA induced by TCDD. In addition light microscopic and histopathological observations revealed that the cells are apoptotic and degenerated during TCDD treatment, whereas cells showed intact morphology during co-treatment with HT. On the whole, the results reveal that HT exerts a promising antioxidant potential in protecting the PBMC against TCDD induced oxidative stress, which might be due to the presence of catechol moiety in its structure.     

Bioanalytical and instrumental analysis of thyroid hormone disrupting compounds in water sources along the Yangtze River

Thyroid hormone (TH) agonist and antagonist activities of water sources along the Yangtze River in China were surveyed by a green monkey kidney fibroblast (CV-1) cell-based TH reporter gene assay. Instrumental analysis was conducted to identify the responsible thyroid-active compounds. Instrumentally derived l-3,5,3′-triiodothyronine (T₃) equivalents (T₃-EQs) and thyroid receptor (TR) antagonist activity equivalents referring to dibutyl phthalate (DBP-EQs) were calculated from the concentrations of individual congeners. The reporter gene assay demonstrated that three out of eleven water sources contained TR agonist activity equivalents (TR-EQs), ranging from 286 to 293 ng T₃/L. Anti-thyroid hormone activities were found in all water sources with the TR antagonist activity equivalents referring to DBP (Ant-TR-EQs), ranging from 51.5 to 555.3 μg/L. Comparisons of the equivalents from instrumental and biological assays suggested that high concentrations of DBP and di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) were responsible for the observed TR antagonist activities at some locations along the Yangtze River.     

Epiphytische Flechten im Wandel von Immissionen und Klima ? Ergebnisse einer Vergleichskartierung 1989/2007 in Nordwestdeutschland

Zusammenfassung   Hintergrund, Ziel und Zweck Borkenbewohnende (epiphytische) Flechten reagieren sehr empfindlich auf verschiedene Umwelteinflüsse wie Stoffgehalte in der Atmosph?re und Temperaturen. Sie haben als Bioindikatoren für Luftverunreinigungen einen hohen Stellenwert bei Umweltuntersuchungen. Basierend auf einer 1989 durchgeführten Kartierung borkenbewohnender (epiphytischer) Flechten in einem landwirtschaftlich intensiv genutzten Raum Nordwestdeutschlands erfolgte 2007 eine Wiederholungsuntersuchung. Dabei galt es, m?gliche Ver?nderungen der Immissionssituation und des Klimas zu erkennen. Material und Methoden Die Studie basiert auf einer vergleichenden Kartierung epiphytischer Flechten von 355 Tr?gerb?umen an 45 Monitoringpunkten. Die angewandte Methode orientiert sich an der 1989 angewandten halb-quantitativen Erfassung. Ergebnisse Es stellten sich gravierende Ver?nderungen in der Vegetation rindenbewohnender Flechten heraus. Insgesamt war eine Erh?hung der Artenzahl an nahezu allen Monitoringpunkten festzustellen. Es wurde eine sehr starke Abnahme s?uretoleranter Arten und eine deutliche Zunahme basen- und n?hrstofffordernder Flechtenarten festgestellt. Darüber hinaus zeigte sich eine deutliche Zunahme w?rmeliebender Flechtenarten mit einem Verbreitungsschwerpunkt in Südeuropa bei gleichzeitigem Rückgang von Arten mit einem boreal-montanem Verbreitungsschwerpunkt. Diskussion Die festgestellte Entwicklung steht im Einklang mit überregionalen Beobachtungen. Sie wird im Wesentlichen auf eine gro?r?umig ver?nderte Immissionssituation, d. h. einer Abnahme der atmosph?rischen SO₂-Belastung und Zunahme der Ammoniakbelastung zurückgeführt. Ebenso treten deutliche Auswirkungen der Klimaerw?rmung hervor. Schlussfolgerungen Mit relativ geringem Untersuchungsaufwand lie?en sich Ver?nderungen bei den epiphytischen Flechten in den letzten 18 Jahren aufzeigen. Diese sind relevant für die Beurteilung regional und kleinr?umig ver?nderter Umweltbedingungen, die auch für andere Organismen und ?kosysteme l?ngerfristig von gro?er Bedeutung sind. Empfehlungen und Ausblick Unter Verwendung standardisierter Methoden vermitteln epiphytische Flechten ein differenziertes Bild der Luftbelastungssituation in Ballungsr?umen und in landwirtschaftlich genutzten Regionen. Darüber hinaus sind sie offensichtlich gute Indikatoren für Temperatur?nderungen ihrer Umgebung. Weiterer Forschungsbedarf besteht für die Verwendung epiphytischer Flechten zum Biomonitoring von Klimaver?nderungen.      

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Land use planning and wildfire risk mitigation: an analysis of wildfire-burned subdivisions using high-resolution remote sensing imagery and GIS data

This paper evaluates risk factors that influence the probability that a house will burn from wildfire. A logistic regression is used to analyse data processed from pre-fire and post-fire IKONOS images and other geo-referenced data. The dependent variable is the probability that a given house will burn. A total of 12 independent variables are evaluated: vegetation density; area of defensible space; adjacency of a parcel to public lands; proximity of a house to fire station; road width; road type; parcel size; subdivision morphology; assessed value; elevation; slope and aspect. Model results generally support dominant land use planning and design strategies for wildfire risk reduction including vegetation treatments, site selection with respect to topography, and improving access to fire stations.     

Survivor needs or logistical convenience? Factors shaping decisions to deliver relief to earthquake‐affected communities,Pakistan 2005–06

In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management.