基于HFACS的空中相撞事故分析及建议

空中相撞事故往往是由诸多人为差错相互叠加、耦合和作用而导致的,要找出事故的真正诱因,防止类似事故再次发生,难度非常大。为了有效地分析和定位人为差错,以更好地服务于防相撞的管理与决策,提出一种基于人为因素分析分类系统（HFACS）的空中相撞事故分析方法,它按照从显性差错到隐性差错的思路来分析事故的诱因,最终找出组织因素对事故的影响。并利用HFACS对巴西卡欣布上空发生的一起空中相撞事故进行了系统分析。案例分析结果表明,该方法不仅能够找出导致空中相撞事故的人为差错,解释事故发生的原因和过程,而且能够据此提供防止相撞事故发生的安全建议。     

Scientists' opinions on the global status and management of biological diversity

The large investments needed if loss of biological diversity is to be stemmed will likely lead to increased public and political scrutiny of conservation strategies and the science underlying them. It is therefore crucial to understand the degree of consensus or divergence among scientists on core scientific perceptions and strategies most likely to achieve given objectives. I developed an internet survey designed to elucidate the opinions of conservation scientists. Conservation scientists (n =583) were unanimous (99.5%) in their view that a serious loss of biological diversity is likely, very likely, or virtually certain. Scientists' agreement that serious loss is very likely or virtually certain ranged from 72.8% for Western Europe to 90.9% for Southeast Asia. Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity; 88.0% of respondents familiar with that ecosystem type agreed that a serious loss is very likely or virtually certain. With regard to conservation strategies, scientists most often viewed understanding how people and nature interact in certain contexts and the role of biological diversity in maintaining ecosystem function as their priorities. Protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services. Many scientists expressed a willingness to consider conservation triage, engage in active conservation interventions, and consider reframing conservation goals and measures of success for conservation of biological diversity in an era of climate change. Although some heterogeneity of opinion is evident, results of the survey show a clear consensus within the scientific community on core issues of the extent and geographic scope of loss of biological diversity and on elements that may contribute to successful conservation strategies in the future.     

含缺陷圆轴结构极限承载规律研究

目的 研究车辆传动轴在受损情况下极限承载能力的变化规律。方法 在圆轴上预制缺陷,并对含缺陷圆轴结构承受扭转载荷的能力进行试验和数值模拟研究。结果 当圆孔缺陷深径比保持不变时,圆轴极限扭矩下降比随圆孔缺陷孔径比的增加而减小;当圆孔缺陷孔径比保持不变时,圆轴极限扭矩下降比随圆孔缺陷深径比的增加而减小。当深径比大于0.4时,圆轴极限扭矩下降比与圆孔缺陷孔径比近似呈负线性相关。当缺陷孔径比大于0.4、深径比大于0.2时,圆轴最大扭角减小为15°~35°,各存在缺陷的圆轴的最大扭角差距不大。结论 圆轴扭转失效时,其最大扭角、极限扭矩与圆孔缺陷孔径比、深径比整体均呈负相关趋势。在孔径比和深径比逐渐增大的过程中,极限扭矩呈近似线性关系逐渐降低,而最大扭角先急剧减小,后逐渐趋于平稳。     

内蒙高腐殖酸地下水中碘的分布特征与IDD病的关系

为探讨碘在高腐植酸地下水中的分布特征 ,研究内蒙古河套平原地区 51份水样 .分析结果显示 ,水质偏碱 (平均值 pH=7.91 ) ,水中腐植酸和 COD含量均高 ,地下水类型属于 HCO₃-Na和 HCO₃-Cl- Na型 .在这种高还原型盐水环境中水碘平均浓度达到 430 μg/L,超过了水碘安全浓度范围的上限 ( 5～ 200μg/L) .相关分析结果显示 ,水碘浓度与其它因素的相关顺序是 :COD>荧光强度 >电导率 >HCO^-₃>Cl^->Na⁺>pH>As>井深 .当地地下水中碘的分布呈现出碘浓度随腐植酸含量和盐渍化程度增加而增加的趋势 .由于这些因素的综合作用 ,当地没有发生高碘型碘缺乏病 ( IDD)的大面积流行 .     

基于模糊综合评判模型的污水管道缺陷定量化评价方法

利用模糊综合评判模型,从污水管道的密封性、稳定性和功能性三方面分别考虑不同缺陷类型的影响,利用层次分析法确定权重,建立定量化的污水管道缺陷状况评价方法模型.对南方某市一段污水管道进行评判,得到污水管道缺陷综合评价指数H=1.09,其中密封性指数Ht=0.44,稳定性指数Hs=0.78,功能性指数Hf=1.79,判定结果...     

车辆悬架螺旋弹簧断裂失效行为研究

目的 判定车辆悬架螺旋弹簧失效的原因,提出改进措施.方法 通过分析和测试其化学成分、氢含量、非金属夹杂物、力学性能、金相组织、断口形貌等,研究车辆悬架螺旋弹簧的失效行为.结果 试件弯曲变形内侧的剪切应力值最大,容易引起应力集中.材料最后断裂区为韧窝和沿晶的混合断裂,且断后伸长率偏低.喷丸并未完全去除脱碳层及表层的其他原始缺陷,表层形成疲劳缺陷的可能性增高.喷丸造成螺旋弹簧表层存在较深的凹坑,凹坑边缘形成明显凸起棱边,引起应力集中,且材料表层存在折叠缺陷.在循环应力作用下,凹坑处折叠缺陷端部首先成为裂纹萌生点,在循环应力作用下,裂纹持续扩展,最终疲劳断裂.结论 减小钢丸粒径,降低喷丸压力,以避免过深的凹坑及尖锐的凸起棱边,并适当增加喷丸过程的表层去除深度;调整热处理工艺,适度降低材料强度、提高韧性,使断后伸长率大于10％.改进轧制工艺,消除材料的折叠缺陷,加强材料缺陷检测.     

建设项目竣工环境保护验收监测的内涵、缺陷及对策

在环境换取经济增长向环境优化经济增长转变的新彤势下．应拓展建设项目环境保护设施竣工验收监测的内涵。指出目前的竣工验收监测对工业生产型建设项目的制约因素考虑不周、忽视了“三同时”的垒过程、忽视了非工业生产型建设项目和区域性开发项目、忽视了无组织排放污染源。提出要创新治理设施竣工验收监测理念、优化竣工验收监测方法、强化竣工验收生态监测技术的研究、开展区域性建设项目的验收监测。     

Prenatal ultrasonographic diagnosis of radial-ray reduction malformations

Radial-ray reduction malformations (RRRMs) may occur isolated or in association with other anomalies. The data of seven fetuses born with RRRMs were collected. Six fetuses had associated lethal abnormalities of the central nervous system, urogenital system, and/or heart, detected by ultrasound. In five cases, it was possible to establish the precise diagnosis, enabling an informed prognosis and subsequent genetic counselling. The diagnoses were: Edwards syndrome (n=3), VACTERL association (n=1), and Poland-Moebius-like complex (n= 1). In two cases, a complete diagnosis was not possible because of inadequate evaluation of these fetuses before and/or after birth. A proposal is given for the diagnostic approach for infants with RRRMs detected in the antenatal period by means of ultrasonography.     

Alpha-fetoprotein and acetylcholinesterase in twins discordant for neural tube defect

Twins concordant for elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and discordant for neural tube defect (NTD) and sex are reported. A literature review reveals instances of termination of twin pregnancies with one normal and one abnormal fetus, partly based on concordant high AFP and positive AChE (although discordant on ultrasound examination). The levels of AFP and AChE in twin pregnancies are probably a function of the number of layers of fetal membranes separating twin sacs: dichorionic, diamniotic membranes allow transfer of AFP; monochorionic, diamniotic membranes allow transfer of both AFP and AChE. Cautious interpretation of biochemical findings and reliance on high resolution ultrasonography are suggested.     

The impact of screening for open neural tube defects in England and Wales

Using information derived from the voluntary system of notification of congenital malformations in England and Wales, the birth prevalence of anencephaly and spina bifida was estimated to have declined by 80 per cent from 31.5 to 6.2 per 10 000 between 1964–1972 and 1985. Over the same period, notified terminations of pregnancy with a suspected fetal central nervous system abnormality increased from less than 1 per cent to 56 per cent of neural tube defect births and central nervous system terminations combined, accounting for 31 per cent of the decline in births. Routinely collected national statistics provide a method for monitoring the impact of screening for open neural tube defects. However because they are incomplete and lack detail an alternative method of monitoring is needed. This paper includes an outline of such a method, together with the results of a pilot study designed to assess the feasibility of monitoring screening in the Oxford Region.