Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long-Term Relationship between Phosphorus Inputs and Wetland Phosphorus Concentrations in a Northern Everglades Marsh

Assessments of long-term relationships between changes innutrient inputs and wetland nutrient concentrations can becomplicated by fluctuations in other environmental factors aswell as by problems typical of long-term monitoring data.Consequently, statistical analysisof these types of data sets requirescareful consideration of environmental covariates, potentialbiases in the monitoring design, and irregularities caused bychanges in field sampling protocols. We evaluated therelationship between anthropogenic phosphorus (P) inputs andwater-column total P (TP) concentrations in a northernEverglades marsh by statistically analyzing available datacollected from several sampling programs over the past 20 years(1978–1997). Canal inputs of agricultural runoff contributemost of the P to the marsh and have produced a zone ofenrichment within the marsh during the past few decades.Regression analyses showed that both canal and marsh TPconcentrations increased during the 1980s and then decreased inthe 1990s. However, the statistical relationship between canal Pinputs and marsh TP, while significant, generally was weakexcept for marsh locations adjacent to the canal. Strongerrelationships existed between marsh TP and hydrologic parameterssuch as marsh water depth, which is controlled by changes inweather patterns and marsh management. In particular, dryconditions during the 1980s may have contributed to observedincreases in marsh P concentrations and the movement of a P`front' further into the marsh. Higher rainfall and water depthsand agricultural best management programs initiated during the1990s have been associated with reduced P concentrations incanal waters entering the marsh. While it is anticipated thatthis reduction eventually will result in lower marsh TPconcentrations, this effect is not yet evident, possibly due tointernal loading of P from enriched marsh soils. Our findingsillustrate some of the environmental factors that can complicateattempts to develop empirical relationships between P inputs andwetland P concentrations and to use such relationships to forecast changesin marsh concentrations based on past monitoring data alone.     

城市空气质量综合评价的可拓方法

可拓方法是从定性和定量两个角度去处理现实世界中矛盾问题的一种新方法 ,它能较完整地反映事物的综合质量水平。本文介绍了可拓评价方法的基本原理 ,并探讨了该方法在城市空气质量综合评价中的应用 ,结果表明是合理可行的     

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.     

Air quality and deposition of trace elements in Didouche Mourad, Algeria

Total suspended particulate matter and deposition fluxes of particles were investigated in the town of Didouche Mourad which is located 13 km north of Constantine. Samples of air particulate matter were collected at one site located in the heart of the town and situated 3 km north of a cement plant. Samples were collected from 2 November 2002 to 28 April 2003 every 3 days using a high volume air sampler. Sampling intervals were 24 h in all cases. During the same period, samples of dust fallout were collected at the same site. Samples were collected at 30-day intervals. Lead, chromium, manganese, nickel, copper, cobalt and cadmium deposition fluxes were measured and both the soluble and insoluble fractions were determined. Furthermore, the information gathered by this study was correlated with the corresponding hourly weather data provided by a weather station installed at the study station. The possible sources for dust and trace metals were analyzed by comparing average contributions of wind aspects to the concentrations and depositions of mass and chemical species with the average frequencies of wind direction. The mean concentration was 300 μg/m³. The average dust deposition rate through the period of study was 221 mg/(m².day). Results indicate that anthropogenic sources contribute greatly to trace elements. An exposure assessment to the heavy metals taking into account the inhalation route and soil dust ingestion was carried out and allowed direct comparison of trace metal intakes via these routes.     

A critical review of building environmental assessment tools

Since the field of environmental assessment tools for buildings is vast, the aim of this study is to clarify that field by analysing and categorising existing tools. The differences between the tools are discussed and the current situation within the tools is critically analysed. However, the comparison of the tools is difficult, if not impossible. For example, the tools are designed for assessing different types of buildings, and they emphasise different phases of the life cycle. In addition to environmental aspects, sustainable building includes economic and social aspects. The shift from green building to sustainable building and the future requirements are challenging for building environmental assessment tools. Furthermore, the benefits of using the tools should be analysed — how the tools and their results have affected decision making?     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

The Vegetation of Wet Meadows in Relation to Their Land-use

Wetland biomonitoring approaches are needed to determine when changes in response to stressors are occurring and to predict the consequences of proposed land-use changes. These approaches require an understanding of shifts in biota that occur in response to land-use, data that are lacking for most kinds of wetlands. Changes in floristic composition corresponding to land-use differences at multiple scales (site to 2500 m radius) were characterized for 40 wet meadows associated with prairie glacial marshes in Minnesota (U.S.A.). In general, guild was more useful than species composition for indicating land-use impacts. Site impacts (stormwater, cultivation) and landscape disturbance (agriculture and urbanization, combined), coincide with a reduction in native graminoid and herbaceous perennial abundance (e.g., Carex lasiocarpa, Calamagrostis canadensis, Spartina pectinata). This vegetation is replaced with annuals (e.g, Bidens cernua, Polygonum pensylvanicum) in recently cultivated sites or introduced perennials (e.g., Phalaris arundinacea, Typha angustifolia) and floating aquatics (lemnids) in stormwater impacted wetlands. Ditches also reduce native perennial importance and increase perennials, but only when they are in highly impacted landscapes.     

浑河源区水生生物与水质评价

对浑河源区的浮游植物、原生动物、轮虫、底栖动物、鱼类和水生维管束植物调查发现 :源区水生物种类绝大多数为贫营养型清水指示种类。数量明显少于下游。源区水质优良 ,水质基本处于自然状态