ESTIMATING MEAN AND VARIANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES WITH BELOW DETECTION LIMIT OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Left-censoring of data sets complicates subsequent statistical analyses. Generally, substitution or deletion methods provide poor estimates of the mean and variance of censored samples. These substitution and deletion methods include the use of values above the detection limit (DL) only, or substitution of 0, DL/2 or the DL for the below DL values during the calculation of mean and variance. A variety of statistical methods provides better estimators for different types of distributions and censoring. Maximum likelihood and order statistics methods compare favorably to the substitution or deletion methods. Selected statistical methods applicable to left-censoring of environmental data sets are reviewed with the purpose of demonstrating the use of these statistical methods for coping with Type I (and Type II) left-censoring of normally and log-normally distributed environmental data sets. A PC program (UNCENSOR) is presented that implements these statistical methods. Problems associated with data sets with multiple DLs are discussed relative to censoring methods for life and fatigue tests as recently applied to water quality data sets.     

城镇燃气爆炸极限影响因素与计算误差的分析

可燃气体的爆炸极限是消防报警和安全使用燃气的重要参数之一 ,笔者对影响城市燃气爆炸极限的因素进行了讨论 ;同时指出有关文献上公布的燃气爆炸极限是一定条件下测定的 ,当空气中含有略低于文献公布爆炸下限或略高于文献公布爆炸上限的可燃气体 ,在一定的条件下也可能产生爆炸。对燃气爆炸极限的计算方法及其计算误差进行了分析 ,指出在使用测试或计算爆炸极限时应考虑安全系数     

基于上限定理的抗滑群桩设计理论研究

针对抗滑群桩设计理论方面存在的问题,即荷载传递及滑坡推力分配的不确定性,基于极限分析的上限定理,给出了一种抗滑群桩的设计方法,即人为增大第一排抗滑桩的桩间距,并按极限土压力公式设计,作用在第二排抗滑桩上的荷载则按照上限定理给出。根据上述思想,并结合滑坡能量安全系数的定义和多块体体系速度场计算方法,提出了抗滑群桩的一种设计理论。     

供风量对褐煤自燃极限参数的影响研究

为研究不同供风量对褐煤自燃特性的影响规律,选取平庄瑞安煤矿褐煤作为试验煤样,利用程序升温试验和气相色谱仪,研究低温氧化阶段不同供风量条件下褐煤自燃极限参数与温度、供风量之间的变化规律。结果表明:温度在40~120℃时,随着供风量增大,褐煤的最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度降低,上限漏风强度增加;温度在120~200℃,供风量为40~80 mL/min和160~200 mL/min时,随着供风量的增加,其最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度增加,上限漏风强度减少;供风量为80~160 mL/min时,在供风量增大的情况下,褐煤的最小浮煤厚度和下限氧浓度降低,上限漏风强度增加;随着供风量减小,煤样临界点温度降低。     

Setting the stage for the review of the international estimate of short-term intake (IESTI) equation

ABSTRACT

In the framework of setting Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) for pesticides, both chronic and acute health risks to consumers arising from the long-term and short-term dietary exposure to pesticide residues have to be assessed. The current internationally harmonized approach for assessing the acute dietary exposure is based on deterministic methods for calculating the IESTI (International Estimate of Short-Term Intake). Recently, it became apparent that the IESTI approach needs a revision in the light of new scientific and political aspects. The main reasons that require this review were the lack of an international harmonization of the methodology which implies trade barriers as well as difficulties in risk communication concerning the public trust in regulatory systems. The most recent milestone in the scientific debate on a possible revision of the IESTI equation was an international scientific workshop held in Geneva in September 2015. The main objectives of this meeting were the re-evaluation, and where possible, the international harmonization of the input parameters for the IESTI equations as well as the equations themselves. The main recommendations from the workshop were (i) to replace the highest residue and supervised trials median residue with the maximum residue limit (MRL), (ii) to use a standard variability factor of three, (iii) to derive the P97.5 large portion value from the distribution of consumption values of dietary surveys expressed as kg food/kg bw/d, and (iv) to remove the commodity unit weight from the equations. In addition, the application of conversion factors and processing factors was addressed. On the initiative of the (World Health Organization) WHO Collaborating Centre on Chemical Food Safety at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands, an international working group with members from the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, France (ANSES), Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority, Australia (APVMA), German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Germany (BfR), Chemical Regulation Division, the United Kingdom (CRD), European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), and RIVM, the Netherlands was formed after the IESTI workshop to conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of the proposed changes of the IESTI equations.     

Monitoring of Pesticide Residues in Fruits

Fruit samples of ber, grapes and guava analysed for pesticide residues employing multiresidue analysis by gas liquid chromatography equipped with ECD and NPD detectors and capillary columns showed contamination with organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. Among organochlorines, HCH, DDT and endosulfan were detected in almost all the samples. Residues of HCH and DDT were maximum in ber followed by grapes and guava where as of endosulfan were maximum in guava followed by grapes and ber. All the fruit samples showed the presence of residues with one or the other group of pesticides. Residues of none of the pesticides exceeded the MRL values in any sample. On the basis of these studies, it is suggested that monitoring studies should be extended to other fruits grown in different agro climatic regions which may serve as basis for future policy in chemical use.     

基于物质点法和极限平衡法公路沿线弃渣场危险性评价

公路沿线弃渣场的失稳破坏,不仅容易造成其下方道路和河流的堵塞,而且严重威胁人民的生命和财产安全.快速、准确和批量地评价公路沿线弃渣场危险性就显得十分必要.通过对公路沿线弃渣场进行遥感图像识别、无人机拍摄、现场调查及试验,确定了6个弃渣场危险性影响因子,运用物质点法对实体弃渣场进行了多因素多水平的数值模拟,得出各因子对弃...     

关于环境管理方式的几点思考

我国利用经济手段、行政手段治理环境污染存在一定局限 ,从而使各项环保措施难以收到理想效果。文章针对几种环境管理方式的局限性 ,指出开展环境保护工作不能“一刀切” ,也不能对国外流行的方式照搬照抄 ,而是要脚踏实地 ,从现实入手进行环境管理。最后对几种新环境管理方式给予了评价。     

可燃气体(液体蒸气)爆炸测试装置的改进研究

以可燃气体(液体蒸气)爆炸测试装置改进为主线,综述国内外各种测试装置的优缺点。对不同装置、测试方法以及测试原理进行比较分析,研讨可燃气体爆炸的特点和爆炸参数测试方法以及对现有测试装置的改进方案。即对20 L爆炸测试装置的配气系统和控制系统进行了合理改进,使引射混合配气与循环混合配气相结合,使可燃气体(液体蒸气)与空气混合更均匀,控制操作更简便,还指出了今后研究工作中应注意的一些问题和研究重点。     

基于双剪屈服条件的输油管道腐蚀剩余强度可靠性研究

提出基于双剪屈服塑性极限条件的管道可靠性爆破压力可靠度模型,在基于剩余强度可靠性理论基础上,着重分析随机参数,即腐蚀深度、腐蚀长度和运行压力的分布情况,通过经典可靠性计算方法、JC法将非正态分布转化成标准正态分布,从而建立起基于双剪屈服条件的管道腐蚀可靠性计算模型。通过提取现场实验数据进行验算,其结果表明:双剪屈服强度理论算得的爆破压力更接近实验结果,该方法降低API579的保守性,大大提高了可靠性的计算精度。