乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气质量变化趋势分析

为了定量评价乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气污染近五年的治理成效,给环境治理决策提供科学依据,运用回归分析方法,对乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气质量的浓度、级别和变化规律进行回归分析。分析结果表明,PM10、SO2、NO2三项污染物的浓度都有所下降,空气质量级别的污染天数呈现明显的月变化规律。乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气的重污染状况有所遏制,但SO2污染凸现,在下一步的治理工作中,加强尘污染治理的同时要加大对SO2的治理力度。     

Combining Logistic Models with Multivariate Methods for the Rapid Biological Assessment of Rivers Using Macroinvertebrates

This work represents an attempt to define a simple method to classify the relative degree of disturbance of sites in lotic systems on the basis of comparison of their faunistic composition with reference sites. Two ecotypes were selected in northern Portugal where benthic invertebrates were sampled in reaches with different levels of contamination. As a first stage, previous Geographic Information System information was used to define reference sites in each ecotype. Afterwards, multivariate techniques and non linear estimation models were combined to assess biological quality. This method allowed us to quantify sites according to increasing levels of contamination, after the probabilities of occurrence of taxa along a gradient of contamination taking into account the reference condition. The results suggest that this method is sensitive to organic pollution, easy to interpret, namely the species tolerance, and could be a good framework to establish regional rankings depending on the ecological impact of river sites.     

天津地区集装箱内部低温环境条件研究

以天津地区冬季采用集装箱储存货物为背景,在天津对集装箱内部温度和大气温度等数据进行测试,对数据进行回归分析后,建立集装箱内部温度模型,预测出该地区集装箱内部最恶劣的低温极值范围,为危险货物集装箱安全储运提供理论依据,并提出了相应的对策及建议。     

鱼吸收富集LAS的分析研究进展

LAS对鱼等水生生物均产生有害影响,会破坏鱼鳃上皮组织、影响其相关功能(如通透性等)。LAS经由鱼鳃吸收、并通过血液输送到鱼体中各组织。LAS疏水性越大,其在鱼体中生物富集系数越大。水硬度等影响鱼吸收、富集LAS。鱼体中LAS生物转化过程减小了LAS生物富集。鱼体中LAS及其生物转化产物大多是经过固相萃取或基质固相分散萃取后,采用HPLC或HPLC/MS等方法进行分析。     

运用QSPR预测有机磷农药的色谱保留值

通过计算43种有机磷农药的各种结构参数,运用多元线性回归分析方法比较了适用于有机磷农药色谱保留值的定量关系表达式,建立了有机磷农药结构参数对色谱保留值的QSPR模型.模型分析表明:磷酸酯与硫逐磷酸酯两类有机磷农药的模型非交叉验证相关系数R2分别为0.991和0.998,标准误差SE分别为0.0539和0.2874,交叉验证相关系数Q2分别为0.976和0.990,标准偏差Scv分别为0.086和0.610.在已知磷酸酯与硫逐磷酸酯两类有机磷农药结构参数的情况下,此模型可有助于有机磷农药的色谱分析.     

Determination of Frequency for Remeasuring Ground and Vegetation Cover Factor Needed for Soil Erosion Modeling

Determining a remeasurement frequency of variables over time is required in monitoring environmental systems. This article demonstrates methods based on regression modeling and spatio-temporal variability to determine the time interval to remeasure the ground and vegetation cover factor on permanent plots for monitoring a soil erosion system. The spatio-temporal variability methods include use of historical data to predict semivariograms, modeling average temporal variability, and temporal interpolation by two-step kriging. The results show that for the cover factor, the relative errors of the prediction increase with an increased length of time interval between remeasurements when using the regression and semivariogram models. Given precision or accuracy requirements, appropriate time intervals can be determined. However, the remeasurement frequency also varies depending on the prediction interval time. As an alternative method, the range parameter of a semivariogram model can be used to quantify average temporal variability that approximates the maximum time interval between remeasurements. This method is simpler than regression and semivariogram modeling, but it requires a long-term dataset based on permanent plots. In addition, the temporal interpolation by two-step kriging is also used to determine the time interval. This method is applicable when remeasurements in time are not sufficient. If spatial and temporal remeasurements are sufficient, it can be expanded and applied to design spatial and temporal sampling simultaneously.     

等离子体脱硫运行参数分析

利用介质阻挡强电离放电产生非平衡等离子体,进行模拟烟气脱硫。通过一次回归正交设计,对影响非平衡等离子体脱硫效率的因素进行了分析,建立了多元线性回归模型,分析了因子的主次,并得到了实验指标和各因子之间的定量规律。通过对模型的优化,获得了使脱硫率较高的各因素的最优组合。     

崇明东滩湿地沉积物重金属污染的磁诊断

对取自崇明东滩的高潮滩、中潮滩和低潮滩的沉积物柱样进行了磁学、粒度、重金属含量等指标的分析、比较与综合研究. 结果表明:在以粉砂为主的崇明东滩,通过污染负荷指数法进行评价,除低潮滩无污染外,中潮滩和高潮滩均有中度的重金属污染. 选取中度重金属污染的高潮滩沉积物柱样进行粒度、重金属含量以及磁性参数的相关性分析显示,χ_fd,χ_ARM/SIRM与重金属含量和粘土(粒径<4 μm)之间有较高的相关性,并以此建立了磁诊断线性回归模型;χ_fd和χ_ARM/SIRM可作为重金属含量的替代指标.      

Survivor needs or logistical convenience? Factors shaping decisions to deliver relief to earthquake‐affected communities,Pakistan 2005–06

In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management.