人类社会发展中两种关系的历史演变与可持续发展

在人与环境所组成的世界系统中，人与环境、人与人是两种最基本的关系，它们之间相互依存并相互影响。在人类社会的生存阶段与发展阶段中，两种关系表现出明显不同的作用性质与作用内容。当今世界，人类社会所面临的发展危机（贫富分化与资源环境问题)均直接表现为两种关系的矛盾冲突。分析表明．只有同时实现人与环境的和谐以及人与人之间的公平，才有可能实现可持续发展。     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IRRIGATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS: AN APPLICATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Economic analysis of irrigation production functions is discussed using linear programming. The method provides advantages over the partial one-crop type of analyses because it captures intercrop tradeoffs in water and land use in response to economic policies or changes in water supply. A numerical example is used.     

中国国家资源环境安全问题初探

作为世界上最大的发展中国家 ,中国资源环境的现实基础表现出明显脆弱的特征。更严重的问题是 ,未来人口的增长和生活水平的提高对现已十分脆弱的国家资源环境安全基础产生着巨大的压力。若在此问题上出现认识和发展政策上的失误 ,便会产生巨大负面效应 ,严重影响中国国家现代化的进程。为此 ,建议 2 1世纪中国可持续发展战略的首要任务应是确保国家资源环境安全的稳定性。     

PROJECTED EFFECTS OF ENERGY POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE AND IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: A national and interregional programming model was used in projecting the impacts of alternative energy policies and prices on agricultural production, land use, and irrigation. The alternatives analyzed include (a) natural gas deregulation, (b) natural gas curtailment, (c) doubled energy prices, and (d) tripled energy prices. These alternatives are compared with a base alternative where prices and conditions are at normal levels. Restraints in the model control availability of water, land, nitrogen fertilizers, and energy. Water production functions were used to adjust water use to conform with projected energy prices and policies. Natural gas curtailment would have the largest effect on nitrogen use on irrigated land. Values or shadow prices for lands that remains in irrigation would increase under all of the alternatives because of reduced supply. Increased energy prices generally would increase use of surface water for irrigation and reduce use of ground water due to higher pumping costs. Reductions of 50 percent or more in ground water use would occur in the South Central and Western regions of the United States. Water supply prices increase under all of the alternatives; with the amount varying by regions and the policy or price situation.     

基于模糊聚类关联分析法的煤与瓦斯突出程度分析

运用模糊聚类分析方法对煤与瓦斯突出的样本集合进行分类,建立了不同突出程度的模糊模式.用关联分析确定待分析样本与模式的关联程度,以此预测预报样本的煤与瓦斯突出危险程度.实例分析表明,与模糊聚类分类后、将模式与待预报样本组成新样本集合进行聚类分析并以此分类结果进行预报的方法相比,这种预报方法不仅可靠程度高,而且能定量描述待报样本与模式的亲和程度.     

示踪技术用于气体泄漏扩散模拟的多元线性回归分析

采用江苏工业学院油气储运安全综合实验模型平台,利用示踪技术(以CO2为示踪剂),模拟了有害气体瞬时泄漏扩散的整个过程.并结合多元线性回归分析的基本方法,定量分析了气体泄漏扩散过程,建立了多元线性回归模型,初步确定了泄漏气体浓度与相关物理量的变化关系,在此基础上得到了2个定量评价指标:确定性系数R=0.991,相关系数r=0.995.研究表明,在实验室建立的试验模型能较好地反映现实情况,模型仿真度较高,数据拟合效果较好.研究可为评价模型的相似性提供理论参考,对有害气体泄漏扩散事故应急救援、实施有效的现场控制,具有一定的科学参考价值.     

伊宁市空气中硫酸盐化速率与二氧化硫相关性研究

对伊宁市1999-2002年空气中硫酸盐化速率和二氧化硫监测值进行回归分析,结果表明,二者之间存在显著的线性正相关关系,但对各年度回归方程斜率和截距进行统计检验,则表现出显著的差异。     

Shifting elasmobranch community assemblage at Cocos Island—an isolated marine protected area

Fishing pressure has increased the extinction risk of many elasmobranch (shark and ray) species. Although many countries have established no‐take marine reserves, a paucity of monitoring data means it is still unclear if reserves are effectively protecting these species. We examined data collected by a small group of divers over the past 21 years at one of the world's oldest marine protected areas (MPAs), Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. We used mixed effects models to determine trends in relative abundance, or probability of occurrence, of 12 monitored elasmobranch species while accounting for variation among observers and from abiotic factors. Eight of 12 species declined significantly over the past 2 decades. We documented decreases in relative abundance for 6 species, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) (?45%), whitetip reef shark (Triaenodon obesus) (?77%), mobula ray (Mobula spp.) (?78%), and manta ray (Manta birostris) (?89%), and decreases in the probability of occurrence for 2 other species. Several of these species have small home ranges and should be better protected by an MPA, which underscores the notion that declines of marine megafauna will continue unabated in MPAs unless there is adequate enforcement effort to control fishing. In addition, probability of occurrence at Cocos Island of tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus), and whale (Rhincodon typus) sharks increased significantly. The effectiveness of MPAs cannot be evaluated by examining single species because population responses can vary depending on life history traits and vulnerability to fishing pressure.