SOCIAL CLASS DIFFERENCES IN RESERVOIR VISITS1

ABSTRACT: Previous research provides evidence of a socioeconomic bias in outdoor recreational participation. One explanation of this bias is that socioeconomic groups have differential opportunities to participate, with the “costs” of this participation especially serving to restrict the recreational access of lower class persons living in urban areas. Using driving distance as a measure of cost, this study assessed the effects of travel costs on the attendance of three social class groups from an urban population at rural reservoir facilities. Findings support the contention that, while increased driving distance has a dampening effect on recreational participation, this effect is most pronounced for the lower class person. These findings point to the importance of equity considerations in the planning of outdoor recreational facilities.     

示踪技术用于气体泄漏扩散模拟的多元线性回归分析

采用江苏工业学院油气储运安全综合实验模型平台,利用示踪技术(以CO2为示踪剂),模拟了有害气体瞬时泄漏扩散的整个过程.并结合多元线性回归分析的基本方法,定量分析了气体泄漏扩散过程,建立了多元线性回归模型,初步确定了泄漏气体浓度与相关物理量的变化关系,在此基础上得到了2个定量评价指标:确定性系数R=0.991,相关系数r=0.995.研究表明,在实验室建立的试验模型能较好地反映现实情况,模型仿真度较高,数据拟合效果较好.研究可为评价模型的相似性提供理论参考,对有害气体泄漏扩散事故应急救援、实施有效的现场控制,具有一定的科学参考价值.     

伊宁市空气中硫酸盐化速率与二氧化硫相关性研究

对伊宁市1999-2002年空气中硫酸盐化速率和二氧化硫监测值进行回归分析,结果表明,二者之间存在显著的线性正相关关系,但对各年度回归方程斜率和截距进行统计检验,则表现出显著的差异。     

Shifting elasmobranch community assemblage at Cocos Island—an isolated marine protected area

Fishing pressure has increased the extinction risk of many elasmobranch (shark and ray) species. Although many countries have established no‐take marine reserves, a paucity of monitoring data means it is still unclear if reserves are effectively protecting these species. We examined data collected by a small group of divers over the past 21 years at one of the world's oldest marine protected areas (MPAs), Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. We used mixed effects models to determine trends in relative abundance, or probability of occurrence, of 12 monitored elasmobranch species while accounting for variation among observers and from abiotic factors. Eight of 12 species declined significantly over the past 2 decades. We documented decreases in relative abundance for 6 species, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) (?45%), whitetip reef shark (Triaenodon obesus) (?77%), mobula ray (Mobula spp.) (?78%), and manta ray (Manta birostris) (?89%), and decreases in the probability of occurrence for 2 other species. Several of these species have small home ranges and should be better protected by an MPA, which underscores the notion that declines of marine megafauna will continue unabated in MPAs unless there is adequate enforcement effort to control fishing. In addition, probability of occurrence at Cocos Island of tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus), and whale (Rhincodon typus) sharks increased significantly. The effectiveness of MPAs cannot be evaluated by examining single species because population responses can vary depending on life history traits and vulnerability to fishing pressure.     

Socio‐economic benefits from protected areas in southeastern Australia

International case studies of protected area performance increasingly report that conservation and socio‐economic outcomes are interdependent. Effective conservation requires support and cooperation from local governments and communities, which in turn requires that protected areas contribute to the economic well‐being of the communities in which they are sited. Despite increasing recognition of their importance, robust studies that document the socio‐economic impacts of protected areas are rare, especially in the developed world context. We proposed 3 potential pathways through which protected areas might benefit local communities in the developed world: the improved local housing value, local business stimulus, and increased local funding pathways. We examined these pathways by undertaking a statistical longitudinal analysis of 110 regional and rural communities covering an area of approximately 600,000 km² in southeastern Australia. We compared trends in 10 socio‐economic indicators describing employment, income, housing, business development and local government revenue from 2000 to 2010. New protected areas acquisitions led to an increased number of new dwelling approvals and associated developer contributions, increased local business numbers, and increased local government revenue from user‐pays services and grants. Longer‐term effects of established protected areas included increased local council revenue from a variety of sources. Our findings provide support for each of our 3 proposed benefit pathways and contribute new insights into the cycling of benefits from protected areas through the economy over time. The business and legislative models in our study are typical of those operating in many other developed countries; thus, the benefit pathways reported in our study are likely to be generalizable. By identifying and communicating socio‐economic benefits from terrestrial protected areas in a developed world context, our findings represent an important step in securing local support and ongoing high‐level protection for key components of the world's biodiversity.     

有机磷类杀螺增效剂在土壤中的吸附行为

通过测定16个有机磷类杀螺增效剂在安徽省宿县土壤中的有机硕吸附系数（Koc),研究了该类化合物的环境行为;并用碎片分子连接性指数（FMCIs)和线性溶剂化能参数（LSERs)结构描述符,与土壤有机碳吸附系数之间进行了定量结构-性质相关（QSPR）分析,所得到的两组预测方程,可用于该类化合物的生态风险评价。     

Regression analysis of forest inventory data with time and space dependencies

In this paper the data of a forest health inventory are analyzed. Since 1983 the degree of defoliation, together with various explanatory variables (covariates) concerning stand, site, soil and weather, are recorded by the second of the two authors, in the forest district of Rothenbuch (Spessart, Bavaria). The focus is on the space and time dependencies of the data. The mutual relationship of space-time functions and the set of covariates is evaluated. For this we use generalized linear models (GLMs) for ordinal response variables and semiparametric estimation approaches. By using goodness-of-fit measures it turns out that (i) the contribution of space-time functions is quantitatively comparable with that of the set of covariates, (ii) the contribution of space-time functions is small compared with the contribution of a set of variables describing the last-year and neighboring response values. By applying appropriate residual methods a detailed analysis of the individual sites in the area can be carried out. This analysis reveals where the predictive power of the covariates fail to explain the observed defoliation.     

拟面积多波长数据线性双组合解析萘,1—萘酚和2—萘酚同步荧光光谱的研究

本文研究了Δλ（λｅｍ－λｅｘ）为１３０ｎｍ和ＰＨ１２．０条件下，萘、１－萘粉和２－萘酚混合物的同步荧光光谱，获三者同步荧光峰信息，且萘被完全分辨，另外，提出用拟面积多波长线性双组合计算解析重叠的１－萘酚和２－萘酚同步荧光光谱，解析结果的精密度、组份间浓度比范围均较多波长线性回归、双峰增配平和一阶导数解析混合物同步荧光光谱结果为优。     

河流营养物参照状态的建立方法研究进展

建立营养物参照状态是河流水污染控制的关键问题之一。系统论述了参照状态的各种内涵,重点分析了国外建立河流营养物参照状态的各种方法及优缺点,并分析了其在中国的适用性。最后,提出了河流营养物参照状态的进一步研究的重点。参照状态根据允许人类活动影响的程度可有多种含义:最小干扰状态、历史状态、最少干扰状态和最佳可达成状态。其中,最少干扰状态和最佳可达成状态在现实管理中具有一定程度的可操作性。参照河流百分比法是建立营养物参照状态的首选方法,但中国水环境污染形势严峻,参照点变得越来越少。当参照点不存在时,一般河流百分比法是参照河流百分比法的替代方法,然而一般河流百分比法和参照河流百分比法的匹配性关系并不完全保持一致。由于栖息地退化等因素对生物完整性的影响程度可能比营养物浓度更大,生物响应法在实际应用中是非常困难的。流域模型法虽然有众多优点,但是数据要求较高,并且常用流域模型的机理与中国有较大差距,在中国应用的结果具有较大的不确定性。综合考虑中国水环境污染现状和数据要求,以多元线性回归模型为代表的简易模型方法在中国应有最大的适用性。然而,环境因素与营养物质间的关系往往都是非线性的,今后应着重研究建立河流营养物参照状态的多元非线性回归模型方法。此外,还应加强季风河流营养物参照状态的季节性差异与年际差异研究,并在全国层面上根据自然因素划分适当规模的生态区,分区确定各生态区的河流营养物参照状态。