北京城区"7.10"灾害性强降水分析

对2004年7月10日发生在北京城区的灾害性强降水过程进行了分析.结果发现,造成本次城区暴雨的天气系统为一中β尺度对流云团,它生成于河北西北部的偏南暖湿气流中,在移到北京城区发展并停留的1～2h内,造成了本次强降水过程.大尺度背景场分析表明,暴雨发生前北京即处于有利降水的形势场中,地面中尺度辐合线可能是强对流的触发系统.此外还初步分析了城市环境对强降水的增幅作用.     

低轨道卫星表面电位探测器探测数据分析

目的 了解太阳活动低年低轨道卫星表面充电的特征规律,为今后低轨道卫星表面充电的防护设计提供参考.方法 利用我国一颗低轨道卫星搭载的表面电位探测器数据,对探测到的2017—2019年的78次表面充电事件进行统计分析.重点研究78次事件的充电时长、电位峰值、时空分布等特征以及事件与地磁活动的关系.结果 在太阳活动低年,83.3％表面充电事件持续时间不超过1 min,80.7％表面充电事件的充电峰值绝对值不超过100 V;97.4％的事件出现在南半球高纬度地区;88.5％的事件发生在磁地方时的18至02时之间;当表面充电事件发生率不为0时,事件发生率和Kp指数的相关系数为0.97.结论 在太阳活动低年,表面充电事件的持续时间较短,并且强度不大.表面充电事件发生位置具有明显的南北不对称性,呈现南多北少的趋势.表面充电事件多发生于高纬度地区,在磁地方时的傍晚至午夜发生概率高.表面充电事件发生率和地磁活动具有较好的相关性.     

2003~2013年中国湿地变化的空间格局与关联性

以全国两次湿地资源调查数据为基础,借助ArcGIS可视化平台,采用标准差椭圆和空间自相关等方法,分析中国湿地变化的空间格局,揭示湿地变化的空间关联性.结果表明：①中国湿地存在明显的动态变化和分区特征,总湿地椭圆中心向正西方向移动,自然湿地与人工湿地的空间分异程度在增加;②人工湿地变化不存在显著的空间自相关性,自然湿地变化则存在显著的空间正相关性,表现出空间集聚状态,并产生了1个热点集聚区分布于青海、西藏和四川,1个独立热点区分布在内蒙古和1个冷点区分布在河南.Moran''s I统计表明自然湿地变化表现出空间变化上的连续性,人工湿地变化表现为空间随机性;③自然湿地保护效果表现出湿地保护高效区、低效区和不稳定区三大类分级特征,可细分为5小类.Moran统计能有效识别自然湿地变化的空间关联性,划定湿地保护效果,从而有利于明确湿地保护的地区差距,为系统制定湿地保护与管理决策提供依据,也为湿地保护效果评定研究提供新方法应用.     

珠江三角洲秋季典型O3污染的气象条件及贡献量化

利用自组织神经网络分析法,对珠江三角洲2013~2017年秋季海平面气压和全风速场进行大样本客观分型.结果表明,影响O₃的天气类型共有7种,由污染程度高低分为高、中、低3类,对应的平均O₃超标率分别为32.3%, 12.0%和4.2%.对比2017年和2016年秋季O₃污染天气分型下促发O₃污染的气象因子差异,2017年秋季高污染型O₃天气形势出现的天数比2016年增多,且中污染型天气形势出现时,2017年的局地污染气象条件更为不利.采用WRF-CAMx模式通过改变气象场输入来量化气象条件贡献,并用实测变化减去气象变化以推算排放贡献.结果表明,气象条件变化导致O₃浓度上升的贡献率为29.8%,而排放的变化引起O₃浓度下降的贡献率为7.1%.在2017年秋季开展的O₃污染防治专项行动指导下的珠江三角洲O₃前体物控制措施,有效缓解了部分由于不利气象条件而引起的O₃污染浓度上升.不利气象条件是导致2017年秋季O₃浓度升高的重要成因.     

基于城市冠层模式的成都市静稳天气气象场模拟研究

目前城市气象场数值模拟结果与实际情况有一定误差.本文基于Landsat 8高分辨率遥感数据提取采用局地气候分区（LCZ）的城市下垫面,结合WRF模式自带下垫面分类建立了成都市精细分类下垫面,并利用WRF自带的城市冠层模式,设计了7种方案对成都市静稳天气的气象场进行了模拟分析,并结合实际监测数据对模拟结果进行了评估,对比分析了城市冠层模式和精细分类下垫面对成都市静稳天气带来的影响.研究发现：①精细化分类下垫面结合了USGS下垫面和局地气候分区数据的优势,较为准确的反映了成都的下垫面环境;②精细分类下垫面对建筑物的形态特征进行了描述,加大了地表粗糙度,能够模拟出建筑物对风的阻挡作用以及城市风场不连续、随机性强的特性;③城市冠层模式优化了静稳天气过程中城市风、温度和湿度的模拟结果,多层城市冠层模式的模拟结果优于单层城市冠层模式.因此,在成都市对污染物扩散不利的静稳天气使用多层城市冠层模式并结合精细分类下垫面将大大提高模拟精度,进而提高空气质量预报.     

厦门地区大气降水氢氧同位素组成特征及水汽来源探讨

采集厦门地区6个站位春、夏和冬季的大气降水样品,并用稳定同位素质谱仪分析降水样品中的氢氧同位素值(δD和δ18O).结果表明:厦门地区大气降水中δD和δ18O值春季最高(-7.86‰±8.07‰和-2.18‰±0.80‰),夏季最低(-61.17‰±4.85‰和-8.42‰±0.62‰).本文同时利用HYSPLIT模型对不同季节厦门地区水汽来源及输送路径进行追踪,发现厦门地区夏季降水主要受到来自南海及西太平洋气团的影响,期间降水量大,δD和δ18O值较低.厦门地区大气降水线方程为δD=8.35δ18O+12.52(R2=0.906),与全球降水线方程(δD=8.17δ18O+10.56)相比,截距及斜率略有偏高.厦门地区氘剩余值(d值)波动范围较大(-5.13‰~32.25‰),说明厦门地区降水的水汽来源较为多样,降雨条件较为复杂.厦门地区降水中d值表现为冬季高,春季次之,夏季低的季节性变化特征.年尺度下,厦门地区氢氧同位素与降水量在呈显著的负相关关系(r分别为-0.477和-0.369,p0.01).     

Bird extirpations and community dynamics in an Andean cloud forest over 100 years of land-use change

Long-term studies to understand biodiversity changes remain scarce—especially so for tropical mountains. We examined changes from 1911 to 2016 in the bird community of the cloud forest of San Antonio, a mountain ridge in the Colombian Andes. We evaluated the effects of past land-use change and assessed species vulnerability to climate disruption. Forest cover decreased from 95% to 50% by 1959, and 33 forest species were extirpated. From 1959 to 1990, forest cover remained stable, and an additional 15 species were lost—a total of 29% of the forest bird community. Thereafter, forest cover increased by 26% and 17 species recolonized the area. The main cause of extirpations was the loss of connections to adjacent forests. Of the 31 (19%) extirpated birds, 25 have ranges peripheral to San Antonio, mostly in the lowlands. Most still occurred regionally, but broken forest connections limited their recolonization. Other causes of extirpation were hunting, wildlife trade, and water diversion. Bird community changes included a shift from predominantly common species to rare species; forest generalists replaced forest specialists that require old growth, and functional groups, such as large-body frugivores and nectarivores, declined disproportionally. All water-dependent birds were extirpated. Of the remaining 122 forest species, 19 are vulnerable to climate disruption, 10 have declined in abundance, and 4 are threatened. Our results show unequivocal species losses and changes in community structure and abundance at the local scale. We found species were extirpated after habitat loss and fragmentation, but forest recovery stopped extirpations and helped species repopulate. Land-use changes increased species vulnerability to climate change, and we suggest reversing landscape transformation may restore biodiversity and improve resistance to future threats.     

Assessing the local economic impacts of land protection

Land protection, whether public or private, is often controversial at the local level because residents worry about lost economic activity. We used panel data and a quasi-experimental impact-evaluation approach to determine how key economic indicators were related to the percentage of land protected. Specifically, we estimated the impacts of public and private land protection based on local area employment and housing permits data from 5 periods spanning 1990–2015 for all major towns and cities in New England. To generate rigorous impact estimates, we modeled economic outcomes as a function of the percentage of land protected in the prior period, conditional on town fixed effects, metro-region trends, and controls for period and neighboring protection. Contrary to narratives that conservation depresses economic growth, land protection was associated with a modest increase in the number of people employed and in the labor force and did not affect new housing permits, population, or median income. Public and private protection led to different patterns of positive employment impacts at distances close to and far from cities, indicating the importance of investing in both types of land protection to increase local opportunities. The greatest magnitude of employment impacts was due to protection in more rural areas, where opportunities for both visitation and amenity-related economic growth may be greatest. Overall, we provide novel evidence that land protection can be compatible with local economic growth and illustrate a method that can be broadly applied to assess the net economic impacts of protection.     

Effects of reduced water quality on coral reefs in and out of no‐take marine reserves

Near‐shore marine environments are increasingly subjected to reduced water quality, and their ability to withstand it is critical to their persistence. The potential role marine reserves may play in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality has received little attention. We investigated the spatial and temporal variability in live coral and macro‐algal cover and water quality during moderate and major flooding events of the Fitzroy River within the Keppel Bay region of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from 2007 to 2013. We used 7 years of remote sensing data on water quality and data from long‐term monitoring of coral reefs to quantify exposure of coral reefs to flood plumes. We used a distance linear model to partition the contribution of abiotic and biotic factors, including zoning, as drivers of the observed changes in coral and macro‐algae cover. Moderate flood plumes from 2007 to 2009 did not affect coral cover on reefs in the Keppel Islands, suggesting the reef has intrinsic resistance against short‐term exposure to reduced water quality. However, from 2009 to 2013, live coral cover declined by ～50% following several weeks of exposure to turbid, low salinity water from major flood plume events in 2011 and subsequent moderate events in 2012 and 2013. Although the flooding events in 2012 and 2013 were smaller than the flooding events between 2007 to 2009, the ability of the reefs to withstand these moderate floods was lost, as evidenced by a ～20% decline in coral cover between 2011 to 2013. Although zoning (no‐take reserve or fished) was identified a significant driver of coral cover, we recorded consistently lower coral cover on reserve reefs than on fished reefs throughout the study period and significantly lower cover in 2011. Our findings suggest that even reefs with an inherent resistance to reduced water quality are not able to withstand repeated disturbance events. The limitations of reserves in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality on near‐shore coral reefs underscores the importance of integrated management approaches that combine effective land‐based management with networks of no‐take reserves.     

Spatial planning and changing landscapes: a failure of policy in peri-urban Victoria,Australia

Building on the scientific literature, this article first summarises the socio-environmental impacts of land-use change expected to occur in high amenity Australian peri-urban areas, involving in particular, the effects of land development on agriculture, biodiversity, landscape character, bushfire risk and social factors. Second, the current spatial planning framework and its distribution in seven municipalities in Victoria, Australia, is critically analysed, and records of approved planning permits are related to this framework to assess the challenges posed by peri-urban growth. We argue that the current planning framework supports a static approach which does not address foreseen challenges and lacks strategic power. Both the strategic framework and the development approval process lead to unanticipated, cumulative impacts and contestation. A more coordinated, less urban-centric approach to planning and the introduction of rural land-use plans would substantially address some of the issues encountered.