STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

Method to analyze the regional life loss risk by airborne chemicals released after devastating earthquakes: A simulation approach

Widespread chemical plants render human life more vulnerable to major natural disasters such as earthquakes. Recognizing the potential cascading threats initiated by a devastating earthquake, a general methodology for assessing the life loss risks introduced by airborne hazardous chemical dispersion following seismically induced chemical release (SICR) was proposed. With a 600 km × 600 km region in North China as a demonstrative study area, the dispersion of ammonia released from multiple relevant chemical plants that were supposed to be damaged by a devastating earthquake was simulated in a probabilistic manner. Using an ammonia toxicity-fatality relationship and its toxicity concentration threshold, regional life loss and spatial spread were evaluated. The life loss risk was found to be non-prominent but would be very contingent on unfavorable meteorological conditions. Non-parametric correlation analysis revealed that the respective effects of meteorological mixing parameters on the risk exhibit new features in a disaster context, that is, stronger mixing would cause elevation of risk in a region. This preliminary research implied that the risk of chemical-induced life loss after a devastating earthquake deserves attention and a thorough uncertainty evaluation in the future.     

地铁运营突发事件应急响应模式的马尔科夫链分析

为研究城市轨道交通网络化运营线路的风险传导规律和耦合关系,构建基于随机Petri网的同构马尔科夫链模型。通过模型分析突发事件应急响应模式中线路之间的相互影响,以及各线路启动突发事件应急响应模式对整个系统稳态的影响。结果表明,用该模型可从数学上研究城市轨道交通运营线路之间的传导规律和耦合关系,找出影响整个应急指挥系统效率的关键因素,最终提高地铁应对突发事件的能力。     

食物链途径人体健康风险评估的关键内容探讨

食物是人类生存的重要保障,食品安全事关人类生命健康.食品污染始于农田耕地,还包括生产制造、包装、贮存、运输、加工等环节,每个步骤处理不当都可能发生食品安全问题.农田为食物来源的基石,是空气、水体中污染物的汇,随着城市的扩张,人类经济活动导致农田污染加剧.人类从食物中摄取污染物与经口、呼吸、皮肤的途径一样,是人体健康风险评估不可缺少的考量因素之一.我国对食品安全非常重视,2010年1月原卫生部根据《食品安全法》建立《食品安全风险监测管理规定》和《食品安全风险评估管理规定》(试行),这两份文件涵盖了从土壤到餐桌一系列的风险过程.但由于每个过程产生的原因、污染物影响机制均不同,规定离具体实际应用目标还很远.2014年环保部以保护生态环境,保障人体健康为根本,为加强污染场地环境保护监督管理,规范污染场地人体健康风险评估,发布了《污染场地风险评估技术导则》,该文建立了土壤污染造成人体健康风险评价的操作方法.然而导则考虑了经口、皮肤、呼吸及饮用地下水等9种暴露途径和评估模型,唯独缺少经食物链暴露这一重要途径的相关内容.本文以英、美两国食物链途径的场地污染风险评估为依据开展了详细探讨,深入分析了评估程序中关于土地利用方式的分类、目标人群暴露特征、污染物在食物链中传输路径、模型选取及暴露参数等内容,以期为我国制定《食物链暴露途径风险评估导则》提供一定的参考依据和指导方法.     

Country logistics performance and disaster impact

The aim of this paper is to deepen the understanding of the relationship between country logistics performance and disaster impact. The relationship is analysed through correlation analysis and regression models for 117 countries for the years 2007 to 2012 with disaster impact variables from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT) and logistics performance indicators from the World Bank. The results show a significant relationship between country logistics performance and disaster impact overall and for five out of six specific logistic performance indicators. These specific indicators were further used to explore the relationship between country logistic performance and disaster impact for three specific disaster types (epidemic, flood and storm). The findings enhance the understanding of the role of logistics in a humanitarian context with empirical evidence of the importance of country logistics performance in disaster response operations.     

Integrated disaster relief logistics: a stepping stone towards viable civil–military networks?

The twenty‐first century has seen a significant rise in all forms of disasters and this has resulted in military and humanitarian organisations becoming more frequently engaged in the provision of support to those affected. Achieving an efficient and effective logistic preparation and response is one of the key elements in mitigating the impact of such events, but the establishment of mechanisms to deliver an appropriately integrated civil–military approach remains elusive. Not least because of the high percentage of assistance budgets spent on logistics, this area is considered to represent fertile ground for developing improved processes and understanding. In practice, the demands placed on civilian and military logisticians are broadly similar, as is the solution space. Speaking a common language and using common concepts, it is argued, therefore, that the logistic profession should be in the vanguard of the development of an improved civil–military interface.     

Environmental resource footprinting of drug manufacturing: Effects of scale-up and tablet dosage

The formulation and scale-up of batch processes is one of the major challenges in the development of pharmaceutical dosage forms and at the same time a significant resource demanding process which is generally overlooked in environmental sustainability assessments. First, this paper proposes general trends in the experience curve of cumulative resource consumption of pharmaceutical tablet manufacturing of PREZISTA^® 800 mg through wet granulation (WG) at four consecutive scales in both R&D and manufacturing environments (resp. WG1 = 1 kg/h, WG5 = 5 kg/h, WG30 = 30 kg/h and WG240 = 240 kg/h). Second, the authors aim at evaluating the environmental impact from a life cycle perspective of a daily consumption of PREZISTA^® 2× 400 mg tablets versus the bioequivalent PREZISTA^® 800 mg tablet which was launched to enhance patient compliance. Environmental sustainability assessment was conducted at three different system boundaries, which enables identification, localization and eventually reduction of burdens, in this case natural resource extraction. Exergy Analysis (EA) was used at process level (α) and plant level (β) while a cradle-to-gate Exergetic Life Cycle Assessment (ELCA) was conducted at the overall industrial level (γ) by means of the CEENE method (Cumulative Exergy Extraction from the Natural Environment). Life cycle stages taken into account are Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) production, Drug Product (DP) production and Packaging. At process level (α), the total resource extraction for the manufacturing of one daily dose of PREZISTA^® (800 mg tablet) amounted up to 0.44 MJ_ex at the smallest scale (WG1) while this amount proved to be reduced by 58%, 79% and 83% at WG5, WG30 and WG240 respectively. Expanding the boundaries to the overall industrial level (γ) reveals that the main resource demand is at the production of the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API), excipients, packaging materials and cleaning media used in DP production. At the largest scale (WG240) the use of cleaning media during DP production contributes considerably less to the total resource extraction. Overall, the effect of scale-up and learning on resource consumption during DP production showed to possess a power-law experience curve y = 2.40 * x^−0.57 when shifting from WG1 (smallest lab scale) to WG240 (industrial manufacturing). Tablet dosage (2× 400 mg versus 1× 800 mg) did not significantly affect the absolute environmental burden. However, the relative contribution of resource categories did change due to the different production technology. It could be concluded that in meeting social and economic demands by launching the PREZISTA^® 800 mg tablet, no trade-off in environmental burden occurred. On the long term, future research should strive to take into account R&D processes and all services related to pipeline activities taking place prior to market launch and eventually to allocate impacts to the final product.     

基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系及协同设计环境研究

本文介绍了基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系框架,提出了可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性协同设计环境要求,从而为进行可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性综合优化设计奠定基础。     

基于安全可靠度的云南松茸冷链物流库存策略优化

安全可靠度对冷链物流库存策略优化起着至关重要的作用.以云南松茸为研究对象,将安全可靠度纳入冷链物流库存操作流程中,建立基于安全可靠度的冷链物流库存理论模型,从安全可靠度管理产生的高额成本等方面分析存在的困难,据此提出应从实施联合库存管理、基于安全可靠度的冷库软硬件优化升级等方面对基于安全可靠度的云南松茸冷链物流库存策略进行优化.     

鄂西生态文化旅游产业集群发展研究

在分析鄂西生态文化旅游产业集群发展的效应和意义的基础上,提出了鄂西生态文化旅游产业集群发展所遵循的市场导向、规划指导、产业互动、择优扶强、注重创新和可持续发展的原则,重点发展以旅游中心城市为依托的旅游服务业集群、以核心吸引物为中心的综合旅游产业集群、以旅游景观廊道为依托的餐饮购物业集群、以特色村镇为依托的旅游文化产业集群、以生产基地为依托的旅游商品产业集群,需要在产业要素整合、龙头企业培育、公共服务提供、重点项目建设、产品结构优化、区域品牌建设等方面推进鄂西生态文化旅游产业集群发展.