有限元数值模拟在巷道掘进中的应用研究

利用有限元分析进行数值模拟井下巷道分步开挖,对巷道应力、位移、应变进行了分析,改善了应力分布,有效减少了瓦斯涌出。本文利用数值模拟分步开挖并应用于实践,通过现场试验论证得出合理的分步开挖顺序改变了岩石应力集中,减少了瓦斯涌出量。     

航空公司安全目标控制的研究与改进

通过对航空公司安全目标控制现状的分析,得出了前馈控制中维修隐患查找不力,现场控制中员工自控和领导监督缺乏针对性、安全目标激励作用大打折扣、规章手册不利于查找,以及公司的反馈控制名存实亡等问题。并提出改进意见：针对维修隐患查找提出了新的查找机制;对员工安全指标排序,作为控制和监督的依据;引进目视管理,增强安全目标的激励作用;建议为维修员工提供能够快速查找相关手册项目的设备;使用滚动计划法制定安全计划,并借用其反馈框架,引入因果图查找产生偏差的原因。     

Are we planning for sustainable disaster recovery? Evaluating recovery plans after the Wenchuan earthquake

This article examines local recovery plans that were created in response to the Wenchuan earthquake and then suggests ways that planners can better apply the concept of sustainability to the recovery process. We utilize a plan evaluation protocol to analyze 16 recovery plans in counties and towns that were severely affected by the earthquake. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with public officials and planners, with the qualitative data gleaned from these interviews being used to supplement the plan quality assessment. The results reveal that local recovery plans do not appear to have incorporated sufficiently the concepts of sustainability. We conclude the paper with the following recommendations: emphasizing sustainability as a policy priority during vision and goal development; developing solid databases and planning techniques; designing a diversified set of regulatory- and incentive-based policy tools suitable for local governments; enhancing social and institutional learning; and further integrating multi-level and interagency governmental units.     

Solid beef cattle manure application impacts on soil properties and 17β-estradiol fate in a clay loam soil

Livestock manure applied to agricultural land is one of the ways natural steroid estrogens enter soils. To examine the impact of long-term solid beef cattle (Bos Taurus) manure on soil properties and 17β-estradiol sorption and mineralization, this study utilized a soil that had received beef cattle manure over 35 years. The 17β-estradiol was strongly sorbed and sorption significantly increased (P < 0.05) with increasing soil organic carbon content (SOC) and with an increasing annual rate of beef cattle manure. The 17β-estradiol mineralization half-life was significantly negatively correlated, and the total amount of 17β-estradiol mineralized at 90 days (MAX) was significantly positively correlated with 17β-estradiol sorption. The long-term rate of manure application had no significant effect on MAX, but the addition of fresh beef cattle manure in the laboratory resulted in significantly (P < 0.05) smaller MAX values. None of the treatments showed MAX values exceeding one-third of the 17β-estradiol applied.     

人-机-环境系统在武器装备研制中的应用

人-机-环境系统是把人、机、环境作为武器系统中的要素,从总体角度对武器装备进行全面规划和控制.人-机-环境系统在武器装备研制中的应用,将改变以往武器装备分散、孤立的研究局面,它把武器装备研制推向一个新阶段.综述了武器装备研制的不同阶段应用人-机-环境系统的基本思路.     

我国南方冰雪灾害的特征与城市救灾对策研究

在对2008年初中国南方所发生的冰雪灾害的损失、影响和成因进行分析的基础上,指出该次灾害具有受灾范围的全面性、灾害过程的发展性和救灾行动的艰难性等特征,阐明冰雪灾害在城市会造成停电停水、交通瘫痪和通讯中断等严重灾情,进而引发断油断粮、物价飞涨和人心恐慌等综合性灾害。通过冰雪灾害对城市救灾行动的总结,指出冰雪灾害给城市政府的深刻启示在于城市规模的急速扩张必须同时加强防灾救灾的软硬件建设,并提出城市必须采取持久开展防灾救灾知识宜传教育、大力加强防灾救灾基础设施建设、科学制订各类灾害的专业性应急预案和努力构建协同联动救灾机制等对策,有效提升城市应对灾害的能力,减少灾害造成的损失。     

可持续发展导向的环境规划研究

在论述可持续发展与环境规划之间关系的基础上,指出环境规划的指导思想是环境与经济、社会的可持续发展。针对可持续发展的实质,提出了环境承载力变化趋势是衡量可持续发展的依据,从而为区域可持续发展提供了量化的依据。并以长春技术开发区环境规划为例进行了案例分析,验证结果合理、可行。     

The Role of Translocation in Recovery of Woodland Caribou Populations

Abstract: Maintenance of viable populations of many endangered species will require conservation action in perpetuity. Efforts to conserve these species are more likely to be successful if their reliance on conservation actions is assessed at the population level. Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were extirpated recently from Banff National Park, Canada, and translocations of caribou to Banff and neighboring Jasper National Park are being considered. We used population viability analysis to assess the relative need for and benefits from translocation of individuals among caribou populations. We measured stochastic growth rates and the probability of quasi extinction of four populations of woodland caribou with and without translocation. We used two vital rates in our analysis: mean adult female survival and mean number of calves per breeding‐age female as estimates of mean fecundity. We isolated process variance for each vital rate. Our results suggested the Tonquin caribou population in Jasper is likely to remain viable without translocation, but that translocation is probably insufficient to prevent eventual extirpation of the two other populations in Jasper. Simulated reintroductions of caribou into Banff resulted in a 53–98% probability of >8 females remaining after 20 years, which suggests translocation may be an effective recovery tool for some caribou populations.     

FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING MODELING IN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented.     

Grass carp status in the United States: A review

Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella Val.) were introduced into the United States in 1963 as potential biological control agents for nuisance aquatic weeds. Since that time an oftentimes bitter controversy has raged over its effects on sportfishing, and its possible natural reproduction and naturalization in North America. This review considers the history, ecology, and present status of grass carp in the United States in light of the voluminous scientific research conducted since its importation. Particular attention is given to the role of grass carp in the fisheries management plans of Arkansas. Recent development of a sterile, triploid grass carp hybrid may lead to widespread use of grass carp to control nuisance aquatic weeds in culturally eutrophicated waters of the United States.