海洋命运共同体视域下国际海洋资源战略价值评估理论与方法

随着海洋资源经济潜力及战略价值的不断提升,国际海域尤其是公海保护区的资源开发利用保护逐渐成为海洋国家关注的焦点。从地缘经济视角和海洋命运共同体的内涵出发,分析了国际海洋资源开发利用的基本原则。在对国际海域经济活动分类的基础上,提出国际海洋资源战略价值评估的理论框架和技术方法。首先,依据国际海洋资源的分布特征及其空间形态,将国际海域经济活动划分为点状、线状和面状三类。各类经济活动的开展除受海洋生态环境、海域自然条件和国际规则、国家战略与地缘关系等因素外,还受到具体的技术瓶颈、装备保障和交通成本等多方面的制约。其次,从商品的价值属性出发,提出国际海洋资源战略价值所具有的三个属性,即自然属性、社会属性和地缘属性,进而从自然价值、需求程度和可获得性三方面构建了国际海洋资源战略价值评估的三维空间概念模型,并运用海域承载力确定资源开发利用保护的边界与阈值。再次,以油气开采、海上航行及渔业捕捞为典型代表,构建了三位一体的指标体系,集成生产函数、需求函数等计量模型,初步建立了一套较为完整的国际海洋资源战略价值评估技术方法。最后,结合参与全球海洋治理的战略需求,提出我国加快国际海洋资源开发利用保护的应对策略。     

MARPOL 73/78现况及实施问题

综述了近 3年来MARPOL 73/ 78的一系列的修正情况及有关实施问题     

和声搜索算法参数的均匀设计

和声搜索算法的参数设置主要是依靠经验和试验来确定,造成试验工作量大且难以得到最优的参数组合,影响了算法的应用.文中通过将和声搜索算法参数设置问题描述成均匀设计中多因素、多水平的试验设计,从而能够用较少的试验很快设置算法参数的取值.仿真试验表明,利用均匀设计得到的参数组合可使算法获得较优的寻优性能,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于随机搜索优化XGBoost的瓦斯涌出量预测模型*

为防治瓦斯灾害,解决井下瓦斯涌出量在预测过程中因影响因素繁多带来的精度较低问题,提出1种基于套索(Lasso)回归与随机搜索优化极限梯度提升(XGBoost)的模型进行瓦斯涌出量预测。以沈阳某煤矿综采面瓦斯涌出量历史数据为例,综合考虑影响瓦斯涌出量的影响因素。首先利用Lasso回归提取对瓦斯涌出量有重要影响的特征数据,作为预测输入;采用随机搜索算法对XGBoost模型4种主要参数进行寻优,选取最优参建立预测模型获得预测指标并分析比较其他模型。研究结果表明:Lasso回归筛选出的影响因素结合随机搜索获得的最优参数组合优化XGBoost比其他模型预测精度更高,平均相对误差为1.53%,均方根误差为0.140 3 m3/min,希尔不等系数为0.013 2,研究结果可为现场瓦斯管理提供参考依据。     

Application of Tabu Search Algorithm With a Coupled AnnAGNPS‐CCHE1D Model to Optimize Agricultural Land Use1

Abstract: A principal contributor to soil erosion and nonpoint source pollution, agricultural activities have a major influence on the environmental quality of a watershed. Impact of agricultural activities on the quality of water resources can be minimized by implementing suitable agriculture land‐use types. Currently, land uses are designed (location, type, and operational schedule) based on field study results, and do not involve a science‐based approach to ensure their efficiency under particular regional, climatic, geological, and economical conditions. At present, there is a real need for new methodologies that can optimize the selection, design, and operation of agricultural land uses at the watershed scale by taking into account environmental, technical, and economical considerations, based on realistic simulations of watershed response. In this respect, the present study proposes a new approach, which integrates computational modeling of watershed processes, fluvial processes in the drainage network, and modern heuristic optimization techniques to design cost effective land‐use plans. The watershed model AnnAGNPS and the channel network model CCHE1D are linked together to simulate the sediment and pollutant transport processes. Based on the computational results, a multi‐objective function is set up to minimize soil losses, nutrient yields, and total associated costs, while the production profits from agriculture are maximized. The selected iterative optimization algorithm uses adaptive Tabu Search heuristic to flip (switching from one alternative to another) land‐change variables. USDA’s Goodwin Creek experimental watershed, located in Northern Mississippi, is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimized land‐use design with BMPs using an integrated approach at the watershed level can provide efficient and cost‐effective conservation of the environmental quality by taking into account both productivity and profitability.     

Evaluation of Dynamically Dimensioned Search Algorithm for Optimizing SWAT by Altering Sampling Distributions and Searching Range

The primary advantage of Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) algorithm is that it outperforms other optimization techniques in both convergence speed and searching ability for parameter sets that satisfy statistical guidelines while requiring only one algorithm parameter (perturbation factor) in the optimization process. Conventionally, a default value of 0.2 is used as the perturbation factor, where a normal distribution is applied with mean sampling distribution of zero and variance of one. However, the perturbation factor sensitivity to the performance of DDS for watershed modeling is still unknown. The fixed‐form sampling distribution may result in finding parameters at the local scale rather than global in the sampling space. In this study, the efficiency of DDS was evaluated by altering the perturbation factor (from 0.05 to 1.00) and the selection of sampling distribution (normal and uniform) on hydrologic and water quality predictions in a lowland agricultural watershed in Texas, United States. Results show that the use of altered perturbation factor may cause variations in convergence speed or the ability to find better solutions. In addition, DDS results were found to be very sensitive to sampling distribution selections, where DDS‐N (normal distribution) outperformed DDS‐U (uniform distribution) in all case scenarios. The choice of sampling distributions could be the potential major factor to be attributed for the performance of auto‐calibration techniques for watershed simulation models.     

时间压力视角下人格特征与VDT视觉搜索绩效的关系及形成机理*

为合理选拔和培训特定情境下的视觉搜索安检人员,从时间压力视角分析大五人格特征与视觉显示终端（visual display terminal,VDT）的视觉搜索绩效的关系。通过变量分析和设计,提出VDT视觉搜索绩效影响因素理论模型;运用Visual Studio设计实验模拟视觉搜索安检任务,采集绩效及眼动数据;最后进行有中介的调节模型检验。研究结果表明:不同人格特征的VDT视觉搜索绩效存在差异;所有人格特征的搜索策略随机指数随时间压力的增加而降低,但调整强度在不同人格特征之间存在差异,严谨性人格调整幅度最大;时间压力通过搜索策略的中介作用（部分）间接调节人格特征与VDT视觉搜索绩效的关系;较高和较低时间压力下,严谨性人格通过有效的搜索策略调整,绩效最好;中等时间压力下,开放性人格的绩效最好。研究结果可为视觉搜索作业人员的选拔和培训提供理论依据。     

地震灾害搜救技术现状与发展趋势

综合介绍了地震灾害现场常用搜救技术及设备,并深入剖析了它们各自的利弊,以求根据不同现场的具体要求使用最优搜救技术和设备,达到最好搜救效果。此外,对低频电磁探生技术、超声波探测技术、超宽带电磁探测技术、基于气体测量的搜索定位技术等先进技术在地震灾害搜救中的应用做了较广泛的探讨,进一步明确了该研究领域的发展方向。     

Science guides search and rescue after the 2006 Philippine landslide

A rockslide-debris avalanche destroyed the remote village of Guinsaugon in Southern Leyte, Philippines, on 17 February 2006. Although search and rescue procedures were implemented immediately, the scale of the landslide and a lack of information about its nature resulted in unfocused and imprecise efforts in the early days of the operation. Technical support was only introduced five days after the event, provided by a team of volunteer geologists, geophysicists, and meteorologists. By the time search and rescue operations were transferred to specific target sites, however, the chances of finding survivors trapped under the rubble had diminished. In such critical situations, speed, accuracy, and the maximum appropriation of resources are crucial. We emphasise here the need for a systematic and technically informed approach to search and rescue missions in large-scale landslide disaster contexts, and the formulation of better disaster management policies in general. Standard procedures must be developed and enforced to improve how civil authorities respond to natural calamities.     

救援机器人的发展及其在灾害救援中的应用

灾害搜救工作的复杂性、危险性和紧迫性给救援工作带来了极大的困难。救援机器人以其体积小、灵活等诸多优点成为灾害辅助救援的有效工具并引起全世界的广泛关注。文中分析了救援行动中使用救援机器人的必要性和可行性,介绍了国内外救援机器人的研究历史和发展概况,对目前的几种救援机器人运动方式和通讯控制方式的优缺点进行了比较。通过分析灾害救援行动中救援机器人所面临的挑战以及国内外救援机器人技术研究的热点及发展方向,给我国研制开发救援机器人提出了若干建议。