气候灾害预测模型的应用

为了减少气候灾害造成的损失,提高灾害性气候的预测水平,用非线性预报原理和方法,建立了气候灾害的数学预测模型。首先,用西太平洋海温格点资料,通过相关计算和因子选择,用多项式曲线预测模型,对西太平洋、南海、以及登陆我国(或广东)的热带气旋的年、月频数进行预测试验,经过3年多的实际业务应用,效果良好;其次,使用越赤道气流指数、南支槽指数、高低纬环流指数等资料,根据指数曲线预测模型的原理和方法,制作了广东暴雨过程预报,其业务预报准确率达到70％-90％;并采用指数曲线、周期叠加、韵律等3种预报方法,用权重回归方程进行综合,制作了“逐日、旬、月、季气象要素的短期气候预测系统”,对天气转折、气候突变和气象要素的极值有较强的预报能力,特别对降水的时段量级、冷空气影响的时段及强度、热带气旋的影响时段的预报,效果较好,对广东的干旱、寒潮预报也具有一定的参考价值。     

江苏省地震局获奖成果概况及分析

在本局科技成果数据库基础上，运用情报计量学的基本方法对本局成果概况、成果类别、成果学科属性分类以及获奖人员的年龄结构、学历结构等进行分项统计分析。从获奖项目情况统计得出本局获国家地震局科技进步奖的获奖率为５０．７％；从获奖成果的学科分布看，侧重于地震监测及预报研究方面，工程地震和地震工程的获奖成果也占有相当比例。从获奖项目人员情况分析，得出科研人员的最佳获奖年龄段为４０～５５岁左右。统计显示了自１９７９年以来的科技成果及所具有的人才优势，同时获奖人员年龄结构也从一个侧面反映出科研人员年龄老化，青年项目主持人匮乏等问题     

农民旅游市场开发初探——以辽宁省为例

辽宁农民不论从经济结构还是人口结构上看,都是一个不可忽视的群体。开发辽宁农民旅游市场,对刺激省内消费、全面发展旅游业意义重大,但地区差异、思想意识、旅游企业的服务质量等方面都大大制约了辽宁农民外出旅游。通过分析,提出了该旅游市场良性开发的若干建议:旅游部门与企业提高认识和服务质量;强化农村旅游市场的宣传力度;大力发展短途旅游;农民旅游线路“量体裁衣”等。     

某联合站轻烃回收装置职业病危害控制效果评价

目的:评估职业病防护设施防护效果,促进现场职业病防护,保护职工身体健康。方法:运用职业卫生检测法、现场调查法等方法对某建设项目进行职业病危害控制效果卫生学评价。结果:有毒物质检测均符合相关标准要求,天然气压缩机处噪声达94.3dB(A),超过职业接触限值。结论:改进噪声防护设施,达到相关标准要求。     

足球比赛结果与预期差异较大时观众疏散行为调查研究

基于比赛结果与预期差异较大的假设,对足球比赛现场观众进行问卷调查,考察观众对比赛结果很满意和很失望两种情形下,观众的情绪、应对疏散指挥的态度、赛后现场滞留的倾向、与他人发生冲突和破坏现场公共物品等与疏散相关的心理和行为,以及上述心理和行为与观众性别和年龄的关联性。结果表明足球比赛结果会影响观众疏散心理和行为,且这种影响还会因性别和年龄的差异而有所不同。调查初步分析了我国足球比赛观众疏散心理和行为特点,可以为比赛的组织和管理提供决策参考,为疏散仿真研究提供基础数据。     

Can ISO 14063 be a tool to plan the environmental communication strategy of a territorial area?

Over the past two decades, communication on environmental values, actions and performance has become an essential activity of organisations, because of the increased public concern and legislation related to the environment.

Stakeholders put pressure on companies to take environmental responsibility. In this framework, an effective environmental communication can generate value-added on companies' environmental work, and consequently, their competitiveness and profitability can benefit from communicating their environmental responsibility.

In 2006, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) launched a standard for environmental communication, ISO 14063. ISO 14063 should not be used for third-party certification purposes. Instead, it is intended to be used as a guideline and support companies to ensure successful environmental communication. The aim of this paper is to prompt a discussion about the applicability of the standard ISO 14063 not only to single organisations but as a tool to plan the environmental communication strategy of a whole territorial area. This is achieved by performing a case study relating to the Interreg IVC-funded project “Progresland”. The project involved three Italian and one Spanish natural areas and demonstrated that ISO 14063 could be a valid support to define and implement an environmental communication plan for a territorial area.     

LCC法在Epson公司环境经营管理中的实践分析

Epson公司在零件采购、材料的采用、运输、用户使用阶段,以及回收再生方面的商品的整个生命周期中,考虑减少产品对环境的负荷,并在产品全部生命周期（LCC）中应该实施的目标的基础上,构筑并实施了环境经营理念。其成功做法值得很多企业借鉴。     

What determines the success and failure of environmental crowdfunding?

Online crowdfunding can help address the perennial financial shortfalls in environmental conservation and management. Although many online crowdfunding campaigns fail to collect any funds due to not achieving their targets, little is known about what drives success. To address this knowledge gap, we applied a mixed-methods approach to data from 473 successful and failed campaigns hosted on the online crowdfunding platform Readyfor. We found that fundraising performance varied by topic, with campaigns on pet animal management outperforming those focussed on landscape management and sustainable use. We also found that marketing strategies associated with online findability and increased reach through social networks, increased fundraising success. However, the existence of other environmental campaigns running simultaneously, reduced the chance of success, which implies that the selecting popular topics does not always increase the likelihood of success due to increased competition. Wider applications of marketing could enhance the ability of environmental crowdfunding campaigns to raise funds.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01522-0.     

安全综合评价结果的信度考察

综合评价在各行各业得到了广泛应用,但是对其结果信度考察的相关报道较少.本文通过考察安全评价结果的信度,验证综合评价结果的可信程度.选用肯德尔和谐系数(Kendall coefficient of concordance)和克伦巴赫系数(Cronbach)分别对道路运输企业安全综合评价的评价主体信度和评价指标内部一致性信度进行考察.最后,通过对道路运输企业安全综合评价结果的实际验证,其信度均符合要求,说明此企业的安全综合评价是可靠的,所采用的研究方法是可行的.此方法可广泛用于安全工程的各个领域,如化工、煤炭工业和环境工程等.     

军品用电动振动试验台测量结果不确定度评定

振动试验台测量结果是否准确可靠,直接关系到对军工产品的评价.结合军工产品环境振动试验工作实际,根据检定规程JJG190-1997《电动振动试验台》检定规程的要求,对使用中电动振动试验台测量结果不确定度进行评定,使电动振动试验台测量结果更加科学合理可靠.