中国工业化进程与能源矿产供需均衡的研究

工业化与能源需求的均衡关系及解决工业化进程中能源供需失衡的战略途径是中国工业化进程中需要探讨的重大问题.文章运用协整技术,就1990-2008年间中国工业化进程与能源需求协整关系的检验,认为中国工业化与能源需求增长具有长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求将继续保持增长,能源利用效率也将持续提高.然而工业化进程中重工业化高能耗结构特征与能源低效利用并存的困境以及能源供需矛盾不利于能源供需平衡的平稳发展.我国应适应工业化进程的基本规律,转变能源消费方式;走新型工业化道路,适当限制低附加值产业发展,鼓励产业向离附加值、低能耗、高技术产业转移;在实现能源开发利用技术进步和创新的同时.有效利用国内外能源资源;建立能源应急机制等战略途径来实现工业化进程中能源供需平衡发展.     

固相萃取-超高效液相色谱-串联质谱测定水中痕量苯甲地那铵

苯甲地那铵是一种广泛使用的苦味剂,近年来被发现在欧洲水体中普遍存在。建立灵敏可靠的环境样品前处理分析方法对评价其环境行为具有重要意义。通过优化关键前处理过程参数,建立了水中苯甲地那铵的固相萃取-超高效液相色谱串联质谱分析方法,系统考察了该方法的准确度、精密度、基质效应、检出限以及线性范围。研究表明：当调节水样pH至8以上,采用混合型阳离子交换小柱(200 mg, 3 mL)富集水样,采用含体积分数2%甲酸的甲醇溶液洗脱时,该方法可获得最佳回收率;纯水和环境水样中加标回收率分别为97%～105%和89%～119%,相对标准偏差小于7%;基质效应均在24%以内;方法检出限为0.07 ng/L,线性范围为0.01～50μg/L。该方法可用于环境水体中苯甲地那铵的痕量检测。     

粤北地区干旱监测及预警方法研究

从农业生产实际出发,引入能够判断作物受旱程度的毛管破裂含水量、凋萎含水量等土壤含水量指标来确定干旱指标,根据土壤水分平衡理论,建立干旱监测预警模型,利用自动站气象资料和降水趋势预报对干旱情况进行判别和分析,并采用Surfer软件对干旱情况进行直观的图形显示.     

加速溶剂萃取-固相萃取-高效液相色谱/三重四级杆质谱法测定土壤中6种喹诺酮类抗生素残留

为测定污染土壤中的6种低残留喹诺酮类抗生素(氧氟沙星、培氟沙星、恩诺沙星、环丙沙星、诺氟沙星、恶喹酸),全面优化了一种联合加速溶剂萃取(ASE)、固相萃取(SPE)和高效液相色谱/三重四级杆质谱(HPLC/MSMS)3种检测技术的分析方法.样品采用甲醇和0.1 mol/L EDTA-McIlvaine缓冲液(1∶1)进...     

Comparison of Three Extraction Methods for 17 β-Estradiol in Sand,Bentonite, and Organic-Rich Silt Loam

Extraction is an important procedure for samples that contain soil because other compounds in soil may affect analysis of estrogens. This study was conducted to evaluate three different extraction methods for 17β-estradiol in soil. Sand, bentonite, and organic-rich silt loam were spiked with 1 mg kg^{? 1} of 17β-estradiol as a model compound of estrogens. 17β-estradiol and its metabolites, estrone and estriol, were extracted using (i) a modified Bligh and Dyer extraction, (ii) a pressurized fluid extraction, and (iii) a diethyl ether extraction, and measured by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. There were significant differences in the extraction efficiency for 17β-estradiol among the extraction methods and the soils: the efficiencies ranged from 10% to 97%. Overall, the diethyl ether extraction method had the largest efficiency of 17β-estradiol with 45% and 57% for bentonite and silt loam, respectively. Transformation of 17β-estradiol to estrone and estriol in the different extraction methods was less than 3.6% during the extraction procedures. This study underlined the importance of sample preparation for estrogen analysis in soil samples.     

Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision‐aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science‐based problem, we suggest that a clear decision‐making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers’ choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade‐offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision‐focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

ESTIMATING REGIONAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH A SIMPLE SIMULATION MODEL1

A simple simulation model designed to monitor snow-packs of the central Sierra Nevada is described. The model estimates average snow water equivalent for rectangular subregions in the area. Static subregion characteristics, daily precipitation and mean and minimum air temperatures measured at three index stations are the only needed input values. A water balance technique simulates daily snowpack changes in each subregion. Reasonable basinwide water equivalent values are produced. The procedure should be useful for estimating snow water distribution in large mountainous watersheds.     

ESTIMATION OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS OF MORNING DEW EVAPORATION FROM LEAF SURFACES1

ABSTRACT: Evapotranspiration from vegetation is generally computed without consideration for early morning energy loss involved in drying wet leaf surfaces. In humid areas where dew formation is frequent, estimation of energy requirements for evaporating dew should be of interest. In this study, sensible heat flux (H) was computed from wind and temperature profile measurements over the study site. A leaf wetness sensor was used to measure the duration of evaporation from an exposed leaf surface, and net radiation was measured with a radiometer. The energy flux during the period of wet leaf surface evaporation was integrated over time. A cattail lysimeter situated at the site indicated the time when evapotranspiration started after wet leaves were dry. The energy requirements to dry an exposed wet leaf surface was estimated using energy balance methods. The mean value based on 44 days of observations from mid February to early May of 1993 indicates that the energy required to evaporate dew from openly exposed wet leaves was 5 percent of the total daily evapotranspiration of cattails with a coefficient of variation of 0.72. The mean time required to evaporate dew from exposed leaf surfaces from the onset of positive net radiation was 78 minutes. The mean dew evaporation in a morning from an exposed leaf surface was 0.16 mm with a maximum value of 0.41 mm. The energy required to dry wet leaves is a factor that should be considered when modeling evapotranspiration at hourly or shorter time intervals. Also, physical evapotranspiration models need to account for energy requirements for drying dew and rainfall wetted leaves.