某大型地下洞室群围岩稳定性工程地质评价

某水电站布置有大型的地下洞室群,其规模在国内外已建和拟建的工程中都是十分罕见的。总体上说,地下厂房区岩体质量较好,但由于多期的构造作用,在厂房区岩层中发育有不同级别的结构面,对围岩的稳定性有一定影响。对此,本文运用围岩分类法和数值模拟法分析了厂房开挖后围岩的整体稳定性,然后运用UNWEDGE软件对主厂房顶拱部位的不稳定块体进行了分析评价。     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

Assessment of future climate change impacts on water-heat-salt migration in unsaturated frozen soil using CoupModel

• A model coupling water-heat-salt of unsaturated frozen soil was established. • Future temperature, precipitation, and evaporation increase in freeze–thaw period. • Soil water, heat, and salt transport are closely coupled during freeze–thaw period. • Freeze–thaw cycles and future climate change can exacerbate salinization. The transport mechanisms of water, heat, and salt in unsaturated frozen soil, as well as its response to future climate change are in urgent need of study. In this study, western Jilin Province in north-eastern China was studied to produce a model of coupled water-heat-salt in unsaturated frozen soil using CoupModel. The water, heat, and salt dynamics of unsaturated frozen soil under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were simulated to analyze the effects of future climate change on unsaturated frozen soil. The results show that water, heat, and salt migration are tightly coupled, and the soil salt concentration in the surface layer (10 cm) exhibits explosive growth after freezing and thawing. The future (2020–2099) meteorological factors in the study area were predicted using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). For RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, future temperatures during the freeze–thaw period increased by 2.68°C, 3.18°C, and 4.28°C, respectively; precipitation increased by 30.28 mm, 28.41 mm, and 32.17 mm, respectively; and evaporation increased by 93.57 mm, 106.95 mm, and 130.57 mm, respectively. Climate change will shorten the freeze–thaw period, advance the soil melting time from April to March, and enhance water and salt transport. Compared to the baseline period (1961–2005), future soil salt concentrations at 10 cm increased by 1547.54 mg/L, 1762.86 mg/L, and 1713.66 mg/L under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. The explosive salt accumulation is more obvious. Effective measures should be taken to prevent the salinization of unsaturated frozen soils and address climate change.     

城市汽车年检碳排放数据挖掘及其应用研究

基于城市汽车年检中CO₂的过程动态检测数据,对小型汽油客车CO₂的排放因子和排放水平信息进行了挖掘,并与文献研究结果进行了对比.结果表明,从城市汽车年检数据中挖掘的CO₂排放结果可以作为研究城市机动车碳排放的重要参考依据;合理有效地利用汽车年检数据可以为城市车辆尾气排放的精准分级管控、城市交通运输碳排放达峰的量化分析,以及城市交通源的污染物和CO₂协同减排提供重要的数据支撑;从国Ⅰ到国Ⅴ不同排放阶段汽油车的常规污染物CO、NO_x和HC的排放水平下降非常明显,而对应的CO₂排放水平差异不大;CO₂排放因子随累计行驶里程、车龄、基准质量和排量的变化关系反映出,如果需要削减城市汽车碳排放水平,应鼓励使用基准质量小或者排量小的车辆,淘汰高油耗高排放的老旧车辆,鼓励公共绿色出行而降低单车活动水平,增加纯电动车辆优化车队能源结构.     

3MRA风险模型在铬渣整治项目制定过程中的应用

选用美国环境保护署现行废物风险评价模型(3MRA)对某铬渣整治项目进行环境风险评价.模拟了治理前后区域内环境风险情况.分析了污染物暴露途径及危害对象.通过模型对该项目预定处置方法可行性进行了验证.模拟结果显示,在95%受保护对象、95%置信水平条件下,铬渣堆存区域存在显著的环境风险,周边居民致癌风险在10-4数量级,水域生态风险危害商数>1.而在对铬渣进行解毒填埋处置后,环境风险将有效降低,验证了此项目处置方法的可行性.     

基于GRACE卫星时变重力场模型的黄河中游地区水储量变化研究

论文以水循环发生巨大改变的黄河中游地区作为研究对象,利用GRACE卫星时变重力场模型以及黄河中游地区的水文数据,通过水循环系统的概化、子流域划分以及Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,对黄河中游地区以及各个子流域水储量变化进行研究。主要结论如下：近10 a,黄河中游地区水储量以年均3.79 mm等效水深的速度增加,而引起水储量增加的主要原因是该地区径流损失量减少,年均减少量超过2.93 mm等效水深;黄河中游地区水储量的空间变化差异性较大,水储量增加最大的区域是龙门—三门峡区间,年平均增加4.59 mm等效水深,而增加量较小的是三门峡—花园口区间,年平均增加2.71 mm等效水深,水储量增加居中的则是河口—龙门区间,年平均增加3.47 mm等效水深。     

富营养水体浮游植物群落对新型生态浮床的响应

通过围隔水泥池模拟试验,研究了富营养化水体中浮游植物群落对新型组合型生态浮床系统净化水质的响应. 每隔2周对水体中各水质指标、浮游植物及浮游甲壳动物群落进行检测,结果显示:①3种不同覆盖率(以浮床面积计)处理下,组合型生态浮床对氮、磷的去除率表现为39%覆盖率>26%覆盖率>13%覆盖率. ②3种覆盖率下水体中的浮游植物群落结构复杂性和生物多样性指数均显著高于空白对照组,其中,26%和13%覆盖率对浮游植物生物量的抑制效果比39%覆盖率好;同时,26%覆盖率比39%覆盖率水体中的浮游植物生物多样性指数要高,群落结构更复杂,随后是13%覆盖率处理. ③浮游植物生物量的变化与浮游甲壳动物表现出明显的相反时间趋势. 尽管26%覆盖率对氮、磷的去除量不是最大,但却更利于形成较为稳定的浮游植物群落结构,促进水体生态系统的平衡与健康发展;浮游植物生物量与营养盐的显著相关性及与浮游甲壳动物的相反时间趋势显示,生态浮床对浮游植物群落的改善可能是通过营养盐的上行效应与浮游甲壳动物的下行效应等因素得以实现.      

石棉破碎车间粉尘质量浓度分布的数值模拟及实测

为改善破碎车间内部粉尘浓度超标的现状,掌握石棉选矿厂破碎车间内粉尘浓度的分布规律,依据气固两相流、气溶胶力学等相关理论,建立粉尘在空气内运动、扩散及沉降方程。以西南某石棉选矿厂破碎车间为研究背景,采用计算机流体力学的离散相模型,运用Fluent软件对石棉破碎车间粉尘质量浓度分布进行数值模拟,并与现场粉尘浓度实测数据比较分析。研究表明:模拟结果和实测数据相吻合;粉尘集中在胶带输送室和破碎机给料口附近,全尘浓度最大为86.24 mg/m3,纤维浓度最高为12.46 f/mL;粉尘浓度随着距破碎机入口的距离增加而逐渐变小;地面呼吸带高度粉尘浓度相对处于较低水平,维持在9~16 mg/m3区间。     

挡烟垂壁作用下狭长通道内烟气输运特征研究

为揭示挡烟垂壁对狭长通道火灾烟气特征及温度分布的影响,运用火灾动力学软件FDS,研究了狭长通道内不同高度挡烟垂壁下火灾烟流运动行为,重点探讨了密度跳跃过程及近火源区烟气特征参数变化。结果表明:挡烟垂壁增加了密度跳跃中翻滚区的长度,缩小了卷吸空气范围,造成烟气质量流率相应减少;挡烟垂壁对烟气垂直速度分布的影响主要作用在挡烟区,且与垂壁高度有关;垂高大于0.3 m,受挡烟垂壁高度影响,在垂直高度1.5~2 m位置出现一定速度的烟气逆流,速度分布曲线呈现与无挡烟垂壁不同的凹陷区,非挡烟区烟气垂直速度服从高斯分布;与无挡烟垂壁相比,挡烟垂壁上游顶棚附近温度普遍增高,下游温度衰减速率随挡烟垂壁高度的增加而加快。     

基于Weibull分布的煤体强度计算研究

以往矿山压力计算中多数使用煤体试件测试强度代替煤体强度进行计算,计算结果往往具有较大误差,针对此类问题,采用理论分析、实验室实验、数值模拟,数据拟合等手段研究了矿山工程中煤体强度的计算方法。结果表明:煤的强度具有一定的尺寸效应,测试试件边长越大,其强度越低;根据其尺寸特征,应用RFPA软件中的Weibull函数功能,模拟求解并拟合得出煤体强度与均质度和原煤强度之间的关系。定义了煤样标准强度为边长或直径为50 mm的煤试件强度,拟合得出煤样标准强度与原煤强度和煤体强度关系的表达式,可据此理论计算矿山工程中的煤体强度。