基于APJE-SLIM的海运人因失误概率的确定

安全是海运行业永恒的主题,调查研究表明,人因失误是造成海事的主要原因。为了对海运人因失误进行研究,探讨引起人因失误的行为形成因子(PSF),确定在PSF影响下的人因失误概率。在调查海上避让行为的人因失误和这些失误的行为形成因子的基础上,采用APJE和SLIM相结合的方法对航海人员避让行为中的可靠性进行分析。结果表明,航海人员疲劳与健康程度、知识、经验与培训水平、任务复杂程度、安全管理水平与组织有效性等PSF对人因失误概率有着不同程度的影响,相应提高PSF水平,可极大地减少人因失误概率。利用APJE确定端点绝对失误概率,解决了SLIM方法中难以获得参考点概率的问题,获得了在不同种类不同水平PSF影响下的海运人因失误概率。     

VALIDATION OF THE SWAT MODEL ON A LARGE RWER BASIN WITH POINT AND NONPOINT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The State of Texas has initiated the development of a Total Maximum Daily Load program in the Bosque River Watershed, where point and nonpoint sources of pollution are a concern. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was validated for flow, sediment, and nutrients in the watershed to evaluate alternative management scenarios and estimate their effects in controlling pollution. This paper discusses the calibration and validation at two locations, Hico and Valley Mills, along the North Bosque River. Calibration for flow was performed from 1960 through 1998. Sediment and nutrient calibration was done from 1993 through 1997 at Hico and from 1996 through 1997 at Valley Mills. Model validation was performed for 1998. Time series plots and statistical measures were used to verify model predictions. Predicted values generally matched well with the observed values during calibration and validation (R²≥ 0.6 and Nash‐Suttcliffe Efficiency ≥ 0.5, in most instances) except for some underprediction of nitrogen during calibration at both locations and sediment and organic nutrients during validation at Valley Mills. This study showed that SWAT was able to predict flow, sediment, and nutrients successfully and can be used to study the effects of alternative management scenarios.     

SHOULD DAMS BE MODIFIED FOR THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD?1

ABSTRACT: The probable maximum flood (PMF) currently serves as the design standard for many U.S. dams. Floods used for design have increased and currently thousands of dams in the U.S. would be overtopped and possibly fail using the latest calculated PMF at each dam site. Some researchers have suggested that modifying dams to accommodate the PMF could be wasteful. Objections to using the PMF for dam modification include: (1) larger spillway capacity may increase annual downstream flood losses, (2) benefit‐cost ratios may be low, (3) construction accidents associated with dam modification may cause fatalities, and (4) the dollar amount spent to save lives by making dams safer is often very high. Based on these objections, a procedure is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed dam modification. A change in spillway design policy is recommended. Accepting the status quo at a dam that cannot accommodate the PMF may be the best course of action.     

总磷测定中温度浓度时间对显色的影响

对钼酸铵分光光度法测定水质中总磷时温度、浓度、时间与显色反应的规律进行了研究,给出了吸光度对温度、浓度和显色时间的变化曲线,和不同温度下的标准曲线的线性相关性,指出了不同温度时,吸光度随时间的变化。从而得到了达到最大显色所需要的时间,以指导标准曲线的绘制,提高样品测定精度。     

Modeling of air quality with a modified two-dimensional Eulerian model： A case study in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region of China

A modified two-dimensional Eulerian air quality model was used to simulate both the gaseous and particulate pollutant concentrations during October 21-24, 2004 in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region, China. The most significant improvement to the model is the added capability to predict the secondary organic aerosols （SOA） concentrations because of the inclusion of the SOA formation chemistry. The meteorological input data were prepared using the CALMET meteorological model. The concentrations of aerosol-bound species such as NO3^-, NH4^＋, SO4^2-, and SOA were calculated in the fine particle size range （〈2.5 μm）. The results of the two-dimensional model were compared to the measurements at the ground level during the PRD Intensive Monitoring Campaign （IMC）. Overall, there were good agreements between the measured and modeled concentrations of inorganic aerosol components and O3. Both the measured and the modeled results indicated that the maximum hourly O3 concentrations exceeded the China National Air Quality Standard. The predicted 24-h average SOA concentrations were in reasonable agreement with those predicted by the method of minimum OC/EC ratio.     

西辽河不同粒级沉积物的氨氮吸附-解吸特征

为估算辽河吸附态氨氮入海通量,采用平衡吸附-解吸法研究了西辽河不同粒级沉积物对氨氮的吸附-解吸特征. 结果表明:不同粒级沉积物对氨氮的吸附-解吸特征均符合Langmuir和Freundlich吸附-解吸等温式;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物的氨氮饱和吸附量较大,分别为3 643.82和2 693.71 mg/kg,相当于粗砂的8.04和5.94倍;西辽河冲泻质泥沙黏粒和粉粒所携载的吸附态氨氮的入海通量分别为170.10和164.52 mg/kg. 占沉积物氨氮吸附总量的14.99%;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物的氨氮解吸比例较小,分别为30.66%和42.04%,入海后可分别为上覆水提供氨氮52.15和69.16 mg/kg;黏粒级和粉粒级沉积物所吸附的氨氮是氮素循环的重要组成部分;黏粒和粉粒级沉积物的腐殖质含量远远高于粗沙,在其所形成的团聚体结构中存在的孔隙填充方式——氨氮吸附是导致黏粒和粉粒级沉积物饱和吸附量较大、解吸比例较低的根本原因.      

加载减速排放测试数据统计分析方法的改进研究

加载减速法（LugDown）测量被测车辆处于100％、90％和80％VelMaxHP三个速度工况下的排气光吸收系数（k）和100％VelMaxHP速度工况下的最大轮边功率值（MaxHP）,数据内涵增强,统计分析较为复杂。为解决此问题,本文根据LugDown法排气控制指标与测量数据特点,提出了排放最大值均值和功率比值统计分析方法,并将其用于广州市柴油车LugDown法排气检测数据的分析,结果令人满意。     

某工业园区VOCs臭氧生成潜势及优控物种

臭氧(O3)污染日趋严重,控制光化学反应前体物之一的挥发性有机污染物(volatile organic compounds,VOCs)对减少臭氧生成有重要意义.为研究天津某工业园区VOCs臭氧生成潜势,采集了园区6个代表企业厂界气体样品,使用质子转移反应飞行时间质谱仪(PTR-TOF-MS)对VOCs进行了定量分析,估算了各企业臭氧生成潜势,运用VOCs/NO_x研究了臭氧生成控制敏感性因素,并在熵值法基础上筛选出了减少臭氧生成优先控制VOCs物种.结果表明,通过PEC法估算臭氧生成F企业最高为0.423 3 mg·m~(-3),MIR法估算结果 C企业最高为1.573 3 mg·m~(-3);PEC法估算结果与臭氧浓度更接近,适用于园区对臭氧生成的估算;VOCs和NOx均为工业园区臭氧生成敏感性因素,需同时控制;园区内VOCs物种臭氧生成贡献大小为烷烃烯炔烃醇类芳香烃,优先控制物种为正庚烷及其同分异构体、正壬烷、正辛烷及其同分异构体、正十一烷、戊烷、正癸烷、甲醇.     

我国4种重要海水经济鱼类热忍受研究

为了探明我国重要海水经济鱼类的热忍受能力,分别采用急性升温和缓慢升温两种方法对大黄鱼Pseudosciaena crocea、鲈鱼Lateolabrax joponicus、真鲷Pagrosomus major、黑鲷Sparus macrocephalus进行了室内热效应模拟实验.研究结果表明:在夏季自然起始水温为28.5℃条件下,大黄鱼,鲈鱼和黑鲷的急性升温半致死温度(LT50)分别为34.2,33.9和36.4℃;大黄鱼,鲈鱼,真鲷和黑鲷的临界热最大值(critical thermal maxima,CTmax)分别为35.0,34.7,32.7和36.8℃.     

LY12CZ铝合金在EXCO溶液中的腐蚀行为研究

研究了35℃条件下LY12CZ铝合金在质量分数为20％的EXCO溶液中的腐蚀行为。利用体视显微镜测量了试样的最大腐蚀深度。实验中发现平行试样之间的最大腐蚀深度具有分散性．经检验确定其分布规律符合正态分布。实验数据表明LY12CZ铝合金在质量分数为20％的EXCO溶液中的腐蚀过程可分为3个阶段：最初的14h内符合S型曲线规律．为点蚀的萌生及发展阶段：随后发展为剥蚀阶段．其中14～120h呈线性规律,120h后呈二项式规律发展至实验结束。