金钟藤的年轮生长量与气候因子的相互关系

分析了金钟藤(Merremiaboisiana(Gagn.)vanOoststr.)的年轮特征,并探讨了它与温度等气候因子的关系。金钟藤的年轮极不规则,有许多自然隆起和裂缝。金钟藤的年轮生长量通过格子法来估算。结果表明金钟藤年轮的年平均生长量与温度呈极显著正相关,与降水、日照时数和相对湿度相关性不显著。罗浮山地区降水和日照时数基本能够满足金钟藤的生长,结合相关研究结果推测:温度可能是金钟藤快速生长的主要驱动因子。     

Model calculating annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor for coastal site of nuclear power plant

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Dynamic temperature model for proton exchange membrane fuel cell using online variations in load current and ambient temperature

This paper presents a dynamic temperature model for a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system. The proposed model overcomes the complexity of conventional models using first-order expressions consisting of load current and ambient temperature. The proposed model also incorporates a PEMFC cooling system, which depends upon the temperature difference between events. A dynamic algorithm is developed to detect load changing events and calculate instantaneous PEMFC temperature variations. The parameters of the model are extracted by employing the lightning search algorithm (LSA). The temperature characteristics of the NEXA 1.2 kW PEMFC system are experimentally studied to validate model performance. The results show that the proposed model output and the temperature data obtained from experiments for linear and abrupt changes in PEMFC load current are in agreement. The root-mean-square error between the model output and experimental results is less than 0.9. Moreover, the proposed model outperforms the conventional models and provides advantages such as simplicity and adaptability for low and high sampling data rates of input variables, namely, load current and ambient temperature. The model is not only helpful for simulations but also suitable for dynamic real-time controllers and emulators.     

Streamflow Forecasting Using Singular Value Decomposition and Support Vector Machine for the Upper Rio Grande River Basin

The current study improves streamflow forecast lead‐time by coupling climate information in a data‐driven modeling framework. The spatial–temporal correlation between streamflow and oceanic–atmospheric variability represented by sea surface temperature (SST), 500‐mbar geopotential height (Z₅₀₀), 500‐mbar specific humidity (SH₅₀₀), and 500‐mbar east–west wind (U₅₀₀) of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean is obtained through singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD significant regions are weighted using a nonparametric method and utilized as input in a support vector machine (SVM) framework. The Upper Rio Grande River Basin (URGRB) is selected to test the applicability of the proposed model for the period of 1965–2014. The April–August streamflow volume is forecasted using previous year climate variability, creating a lagged relationship of 1–13 months. SVD results showed the streamflow variability was better explained by SST and U₅₀₀ as compared to Z₅₀₀ and SH₅₀₀. The SVM model showed satisfactory forecasting ability with best results achieved using a one‐month lead to forecast the following four‐month period. Overall, the SVM results showed excellent predictive ability with average correlation coefficient of 0.89 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.79. This study contributes toward identifying new SVD significant regions and improving streamflow forecast lead‐time of the URGRB.     

武汉市2014-2017年大气污染物分布特征及其潜在来源分析

利用武汉市2014—2017年大气污染物（SO₂、NO₂、CO、O₃、PM_2.5和PM₁₀）和气象要素的观测数据,分析了大气污染物的变化特征及其影响因素.使用HYSPLIT模式计算了影响武汉市的主要气团类型,并利用潜在源区贡献（PSCF）和浓度权重轨迹（CWT）分析方法,揭示了研究期内武汉市不同大气污染物的潜在源区分布及其贡献特性.结果表明,武汉市2014—2017年空气质量逐年好转,SO₂、O₃、PM_2.5和PM₁₀的浓度呈逐年下降的趋势,但NO₂和CO的浓度先下降后上升.2017年SO₂、O₃、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、NO₂和CO的浓度分别为9.6、50.8、52.7、89.2、47.5 μg·m^-3和1.1 mg·m^-3,分别比2014年降低了64.3%、23.0%、24.7%、18.8%、3.5%和5.9%.大气污染物存在显著的季节变化和月变化.大气污染物在四个季节中日变化类似,SO₂和O₃均为单峰型分布,NO₂、CO、PM_2.5和PM₁₀均为双峰型分布.武汉市空气污染以PM_2.5为主,随着污染程度的加剧PM_2.5/PM₁₀的值逐渐增大,在空气质量为严重污染时,PM_2.5/PM₁₀高达90%,比空气质量为优时高了31.34%.局地气团（45%）和来自山西、陕西和河南一带的西北气团（12.1%）下大气污染物浓度较高.大气污染物的潜在源区贡献（WPSCF）和浓度权重轨迹（WCWT）的较大值主要集中在武汉市本地及其周边地区,局地污染对武汉市大气污染物的贡献较大,但不同大气污染物受到排放源分布和停留时间等影响其WPSCF和WCWT的分布范围不同.     

降水与农业种植变化对黄河流域径流影响研究

黄河是我国西北、华北地区重要水源,了解其径流变化特征及成因有着重要意义。论文基于趋势性分析、广义可加模型（GAMLSS）等方法,采用黄河流域近60 a来流量、降水、主要农业种植面积及大型水库资料等数据,通过细化农业小麦生长期与玉米和大豆生长期以及假定不同降水情景,在季节尺度上深入分析了1960—2005年黄河流域气候、农业种植面积等变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明：1）黄河流域5个水文站点小麦生长期与玉米和大豆生长期径流变异点均发生于20世纪80年代中后期和90年代初期,且除花园口站小麦生长期间径流有少部分呈上升趋势外,黄河流域径流整体呈下降趋势,其中,唐乃亥、兰州的小麦生长期、玉米和大豆生长期及龙门、花园口的玉米和大豆生长期趋势均达到了0.05的显著性水平,呈显著下降趋势;2）对比两种降水假设状态,暴雨年的径流始终高于小雨年的径流,因此,降水仍是影响径流的主要因子之一,而农业种植面积变化对径流的影响程度,不仅与降水量的多少有关,还与流量分位数的大小有关,对于唐乃亥站小麦生长期的暴雨年时期,增加农作物种植面积,在低流量分位数时可以增加径流,而在高于0.75分位数时会减小径流,小雨年时期规律相反。该研究结果对变化环境下黄河流域水资源管理与优化配置具有一定理论与现实意义。     

Characterization and prediction of highway runoff constituent event mean concentration

Highway stormwater runoff quality data were collected from throughout California during 2000-2003. Samples were analyzed for conventional pollutants (pH, conductivity, hardness, and temperature); aggregates (TSS, TDS, TOC, DOC); total and dissolved metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn); and nutrients (NO(3)-N, TKN, total P, and ortho-P). Storm event and site characteristics for each sampling site were recorded. A statistical summary for chemical characteristics of highway runoff is provided based on statewide urban and non-urban highways. Constituent event mean concentrations (EMCs) were generally higher in urban highways than in non-urban highways. The chemical characteristics of highway runoff in California were compared with national highway runoff chemical characterization data. The results obtained in California were generally similar to those found in other states. The median EMC for Pb measured in studies conducted in previous decades was much higher than the current median Pb EMC in California. The lower Pb EMC in California compared to previous highway runoff monitoring is believed to be due to the elimination of leaded gasoline. An attempt was also made to identify surrogate constituents within a general family of water quality categories using Spearman correlations and selected pairs with Spearman coefficients greater than 0.8. The strongest correlations were observed among parameters associated with dissolved minerals (EC, TDS, and chloride); organic carbon (TOC and DOC); petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH and O & G); and particulate matter (TSS and turbidity). Within the metals category, total iron concentration was highly correlated with most total metal concentrations. The correlations between total and dissolved concentrations were all less than 0.8, even between total and dissolved concentrations of the same metals. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of various site and storm event variables on highway runoff constituent EMCs. Parameters found to have significant impacts on highway runoff constituent EMCs include: total event rainfall (TER); cumulative seasonal rainfall (CSR); antecedent dry period (ADP); contributing drainage area (DA); and annual average daily traffic (AADT). Surrounding land use and geographic regions were also determined to have a significant impact on runoff quality. The MLR model was also used to predict constituent EMCs. Model performance determined by comparing predicted and measured values showed good agreement for most constituents.     

DISTRIBUTION AND STOCHASTIC GENERATION OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ON A MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: The 18-year precipitation record from the dense gage network on the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in southwest Idaho was used to determine the spatial distribution of annual and monthly precipitation on a mountainous watershed. Analyses of these data showed a linear relationship between annual amounts and elevation. This relationship was best when the gages were grouped into downwind and upwind sites. This grouping was appropriate because most of the winter storms moved over the watershed from the west and southwest, and the heaviest precipitation was on the west (downwind) side of the watershed. Gage sites along the western and southern watershed borders were most representative of the upwind gages on the east side, because they measured the precipitation from the air moving upwind onto the watershed. The maximum annual precipitation on the watershed was just leeward of the western watershed boundary. The monthly precipitation and elevation relationship was also best represented by grouping the gage sites into upwind and downwind sites. However, during the summer when there are only small amounts of pre cipitation and thunderstorms are the source of most precipitation, one equation can be used to represent the elevation relationship. This study also showed that the log-normal distribution could be used to generate the annual synthetic series, and the cube-root-normal distribution could be used to generate monthly synthetic series for all locations on the watershed.     

ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC CO2 INCREASES WATER AVAILABILITY IN A WATER-LIMITED GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Californian annual grassland on sandstone (moderately fertile) and serpentine (very infertile) soils at the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford, California, were exposed to ambient or elevated (ambient + 36 Pa CO₂) atmospheric CO₂ in open-top chambers since December 1991. We measured ecosystem evapotranspiration with open gas-exchange systems, and soil moisture with time-domain reflectometry (TDR) over 0–15 cm (serpentine) and 0–30 cm (sandstone) depths, at times of peak above ground physiological activity. Evapotranspiration decreased by 12 to 63 percent under elevated CO₂ in three consecutive years in the sandstone ecosystem (p = 0.053, p = 0.162, p = 0.082 in 1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively). In correspondence with decreased evapotranspiration, late-season soil moisture reserves in the sandstone were extended temporally by 10 ± 3 days in 1993 and by 28 ± 11 days in 1994. The effect of elevated CO₂ on soil moisture was greater in the drier spring of 1994 (419 mm annual rainfall) than in 1993 (905 mm annual rainfall). In the serpentine ecosystem, evapotranspiration and soil moisture reserves were not clearly affected by elevated CO₂. Soil water may be conserved in drought-affected ecosystems exposed to elevated CO₂, but the amount of conservation appears to depend on the relative importance of transpiration and soil evaporation in controlling water flux.     

HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.